You couldn’t keep the Patriots out of the past for long. Apparently needing only one season to determine their Jerod Mayo experiment was a noble failure, they have returned to the Bill Belichick coaching tree in ways both formal and less official. The latter via new head coach Mike Vrabel, who played for BB but never worked for him. The former via OC Josh McDaniels, who is now on his third tour of Boston duty. How they reconcile their systems will be one of the Patriots’ defining 2025 questions.
2024 New England Patriots Stats (rank)
Points per game: 17 (30th)
Total yards per game: 292 (31st)
Plays per game: 60.4 (26th)
Dropbacks per game: 41 (13th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.02 (23rd)
Rush attempts per game: 26.2 (20th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.19 (30th)
Will Josh McDaniels and Drake Maye be a match made in fantasy football heaven?
One of the ways Vrabel put himself on the map in Tennessee was featuring simplistic offenses. Pound the rock. Set up play-action. Take your shots deep. That is not how McDaniels approached the process in New England, instead developing some of the most complex systems in league history alongside Tom Brady. TB12, of course, was the system, so we would assume McDaniels is open to reinvention. This is the man who used a first-round pick on Tim Tebow, after all. Drake Maye is somewhere in the middle of those two extremes as a talent.
Passing Game
QB: Drake Maye, Josh Dobbs
WR: Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins
WR: Pop Douglas, Kendrick Bourne
WR: Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams
TE: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Jaheim Bell
Built like Brady at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, Maye is nevertheless a far better athlete. An elite one, in fact. A willing down-field passer, Maye also worked overtime to protect the football in college. He didn’t have as much success avoiding turnovers as an NFL rookie, but that is to be expected for a first-year pro. What immediately translated was Maye’s dual-threat. His 421 yards rushing were ninth amongst quarterbacks despite making only 13 starts. He was lucky it was that many, as Maye was heedless with the ball in his hands, exposing himself to far too many hits. He suffered one documented concussion and was evaluated for more. Learning to avoid the big blow is a rite of NFL passage, but it has become particularly urgent in Maye’s case because of the head issues.
It is going to be a difficult needle to thread, as Maye’s rushing ability is one of the things that makes him special, particularly in fantasy. It can be done. Just ask Josh Allen or Cam Newton. Even Daniel Jones knows how to protect himself. But that will be the beginning, middle and end of Maye’s sophomore campaign in fantasy, as his supporting cast remains one of the worst in the league. If Maye’s rushing is curtailed, he has no path to QB1 relevance. As long as it is not — and this is the kind of thing you can’t really legislate out of a young man’s game — he will threaten for weekly top 12 status.
But it cannot be overemphasized how shaky Maye’s receiver corps is. “Shaky,” in fact, doesn’t really do it justice. It’s shallow. It’s incomplete. It’s just flat out not good. The de facto No. 1 is Stefon Diggs. Going on 32, Diggs’ decline both from efficiency and raw statistical standpoints began in 2023 for the Bills and was continuing in earnest for the Texans last season. Then he tore his ACL in Week 8. Typically, when a declining player well on the wrong side of 30 suffers a severe orthopedic injury, they don’t end up someone’s unquestioned No. 1 weapon, but times are that desperate in New England. So desperate, in fact, that the Pats have been forced to look past commitment questions about the veteran wideout, who was filmed doing something in the offseason that appeared to be, shall we say, not legal on a boat.
But the lack of other options is real, while Diggs’ pedigree offers at least some hope of a rebound. He acknowledges this is his last chance, and he was amongst the league leaders in catches before going down last season. Never mind his lack of efficiency while doing so. Paired with an exciting young quarterback and seen-it-all play-caller, Diggs is a WR4 who could sneak all the way into the top 30.
The struggle is real behind Diggs. Very, very real. We are talking Pop Douglas, Mack Hollins or Kayshon Boutte WR2 real. Or if we are lucky, third-round pick Kyle Williams. We’ll begin with Pop, who did a decent Wan’Dale Robinson impression last season, catching 66 balls for … 621 yards. He has three touchdowns in 31 career appearances. There is little reason to expect that to get better this season, but not zero reason. McDaniels has a long track record of turning pint-sized slot men into PPR money printers. That’s just not the most likely outcome with this drastically under-sized 25-year-old. An outlier best-case scenario for Douglas would be weekly WR4 value.
In theory, rookie Williams could be McDaniels’ next Wes Welker. He has a 5-foot-11, 190-pound frame and was highly productive in college. The problem is it was primarily on the outside. An easy intermediate-to-deep separator, Williams’ 4.4 speed shows up on film. At least in the remnants of the PAC-12, he looked like the game-breaker the Pats so desperately need. There are just major questions about how his frame translates to the boundary in the pros, and the Pats have so many other bodies they can feature outside the numbers. Williams has far more upside than Douglas or anyone else behind him, but he’s a risky WR4 because of this offense’s unknowns.
Boutte and Hollins are barely worth writing about, though it must be noted Boutte managed 589 yards as a 22-year-old second-year pro. The problem is he did so on a wheezing 1.26 yards per route run, which placed him 73rd amongst receivers by PFF’s count. His 15 percent target share was awful considering his lack of competition. Boutte could emerge as a valuable situational deep threat in an improved offense, but that is not a role that equals fantasy points.
Speaking of situational deep threats, Hollins is built like one but has never produced as such. 32 in September, McDaniels is going to love Hollins’ blocking.
That leaves Hunter Henry, who was inexplicably this team’s leading receiver in 2024 with 674 yards. That was his best total in eight NFL seasons. This being the Patriots, it translated to only two scores. Now on the wrong side of 30, Henry will undoubtedly pop up as a chain-mover and third-down option, but there is nothing in his past — recent or otherwise — to suggest increased 2025 production. You might end up streaming Henry a few times. You will not enjoy it.
Running Game
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, Antonio Gibson
OL (L-R): Will Campbell, Cole Strange, Garrett Bradbury, Mike Onwenu, Morgan Moses
There is more going on in the Patriots’ backfield than receiver corps, but none of it is necessarily good for fantasy. Rhamondre Stevenson is the league’s 11th highest-paid back on an annual basis, but it is second-rounder TreVeyon Henderson capturing roto imaginations. That’s because Stevenson was awful last season and Henderson was a clear “McDaniels pick.” At the very least, McDaniels has visions of his “next Shane Vereen.” The question is whether Henderson is capable of more. Already typecast as a “lightning” back to Quinshon Judkins’ thunder at Ohio State, there isn’t much reason to expect the Pats to come out banging Henderson between the tackles.
Admittedly, Henderson was ludicrously efficient and explosive on his limited 2024 workload, turning 144 carries into 1,016 yards (7.1 YPC). He is a breakaway threat every time he touches the ball. The Pats are also at least giving lip service to the possibility he could be a three-down back. That promise paired with his big-play floor makes Henderson’s RB2 summer ADP aspirational but not delusional.
2024 was Stevenson’s second straight down campaign, with this one marred by a league-worst seven fumbles (not including quarterbacks). For some reason extended immediately following the 2023 season, Stevenson’s contract makes him un-cuttable, but an already declining receiving role will be further gutted by Henderson’s presence, while Stevenson’s ball-security issues will make him difficult for details-oriented OC McDaniels to trust in the red zone. Stevenson is looking like a classic between-the-20s runner who will be starved for high-value touches, rendering him an uninspiring RB4/FLEX.
No. 3 back Antonio Gibson remained one of the league’s least impressive change-of-pace runners both from a rushing and pass-catching perspective last season. The guaranteed money in his contract means he will likely keep his roster spot, but he has no path to standalone value and would max out as a committee member in the event of injury ahead of him. There is no reason to select Gibson in 12-team re-draft leagues.
2025 New England Patriots Win Total
The Pats’ over/under is typically set around 8.5, a shockingly high number considering last year’s struggles and this spring’s modest talent infusion. The Maye hype is real, while this is now one of the league’s most experienced coaching staffs. The floor is much higher in New England. It’s just hard to spot the ceiling. Nine wins will be achievable. It does not feel like the most likely outcome.
