There’s one weird trick for spotting late-round tight ends who could emerge as every-week fantasy starters.
Are you ready for the big reveal of this one weird trick? I don’t think you are. Nevertheless, here goes: Find tight ends with little or no competition for snaps, pass routes, and targets.
This extremely weird trick has a solid track record: Logan Thomas became a late-round target last summer when it was apparent no one would challenge his role as Washington’s route running, pass catching tight end. Thomas went on to lead the NFL in tight end pass routes. Darren Waller was in a similar spot in summer 2019 and fantasy players who drafted the monstrous Raiders tight end in the final rounds netted the third most tight end fantasy points of that year. In 2018, this weird trick would have led you straight to Austin Hooper, who nabbed 71 passes for 660 yards and four scores on his way to the sixth most tight end fantasy points. [[ad:athena]]
Consider this a medical warning: Seeing rosters with Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, or Kyle Pitts might land you in the hospital with severe FOMO if you fade tight end this summer and land a late-round guy. These are the risks.
But now that your eyes are open to this one weird trick, let’s pinpoint some late-round tight ends who (for now) have their team’s pass-catching gig all to themselves.
Adam Trautman
Trautman’s rookie season saw the big man barely play for much of the first six weeks, hampered by the COVID offseason program that effectively stunted the growth of many 2020 rookies (rookies were three months behind on preparation due to the league’s COVID protocols). Trautman was a healthy scratch in Week 5 against the Chargers. When he finally got playing time late in the year, Trautman was used primarily as a blocker. Because, well, he’s good at that. Trautman ran a grand total of 177 pass routes in 2020, or 11.8 per game.
Jared Cook -- who did a lot more route running and a lot less blocking than Trautman -- is gone, departed to the Bolts. That leaves Trautman and journeyman Nick Vannett as the Saints’ top two tight ends entering 2021. Cook leaves a gaping hole in the team’s tight end room: He accounted for 47.6 percent of the Saints’ tight end pass routes and 70.2 percent of the tight end targets.
Every indication from trusted New Orleans beat writer Nick Underhill is that Trautman has the pass-catching role to himself, while Vannett will take on Trautman’s role from 2020. Underhill, like most Saints beat writers, has been effusive in praising Trautman’s all-around game.
Trautman, Underhill said, “has a chance to become a truly special player if his athletic ability allows him to develop into an offensive weapon. Only a few tight ends in the league are truly great at both blocking and receiving. Trautman could develop into one of those types of players as well as someone who can line up in different spots and be a threat from everywhere.”
Trautman was nothing if not efficient as a rookie. He turned 16 targets into 15 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown. Small sample sizes be damned, that’s a hell of a line.
Watching Trautman dominate defenders on seam routes in training camp, Underhill said, “brings back visions of how effective that play was” when Jimmy Graham was wrecking opposing defenses as Drew Brees’ top target. Probably Trautman’s ceiling isn’t career-prime Jimmy Graham, but it doesn’t need to be. He’s going in the 12th round of 12-team leagues, behind tight ends who will be far lower in their team’s target pecking order. Michael Thomas’ early-season absence can only be good for Trautman’s target share in an offense whose top receiver might be Marquez Callaway.
His role as the team’s pass-catching tight end locked in place, Trautman could easily become the kind of tight end you start with supreme confidence in 2021, while tight ends taken four and five rounds earlier fall quietly to the waiver wire by October.
Dawson Knox
Knox’s fantasy value -- firmly on the chopping block since the end of 2020 -- somehow survived an entire offseason of rumors that Buffalo was primed to trade for Zach Ertz. The move seemed inevitable this spring until it wasn’t. Ertz, blonde hair and all, reported to Eagles training camp and is expected to play his ninth season with Philly.
Knox, entering his third pro season, remains the Bills’ No. 1 tight end; his truthers have never been so excited about anything. Their giddiness is understandable. After playing tight end for a mere 16 games in college, Knox had a terribly steep learning curve as a starting tight end in the NFL. Tight end is a famously slow-development position, offering the faintest glimmer of hope that Knox can evolve into a reliable fantasy option in 2021.
Leading the team in tight end pass routes while missing four games with COVID in 2020, Knox established himself as the only tight end even nominally involved in Josh Allen’s high-flying attack. He ran a respectable -- if not spectacular -- 21.5 pass routes per game, around eight more than Tyler Kroft, Buffalo’s No. 2 tight end before being signed by the Jets this spring.
Knox, after teasing fantasy managers with an outburst of postseason production (ten catches and two touchdowns in Buffalo’s three playoff games), comes into 2021 with precious little competition for tight end routes and targets. Jacob Hollister -- who has missed crucial training camp time with a back injury -- is second on the team’s depth chart and Tommy Sweeney -- a 2019 seventh round pick who missed much of the 2020 season with a heart condition -- is third.
With Hollister sidelined at camp, Buscaglia said Knox “has looked impressive outside of one early drop, and it seems Knox is quickly speeding away with the starting role. Hollister could be a factor down the line, but he’s got a long way to go to catch up to Knox if Hollister has any hope to win the starting role before camp.” Hollister isn’t a sure thing as the team’s No. 2 tight end, according to Buscaglia.
Buffalo beat writers and training camp observers have time and again pointed to Knox as a surprisingly relevant part of the team’s high-octane offense. NFL Network’s Kim Jones last month pointed to Knox as the Bills’ 2021 “breakout player,” for whatever that’s worth. The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia said last week that Knox “has the talent to be a top-end tight end in the league” but questioned Knox’s unreliable hands as an insurmountable stumbling block in the third-year tight end’s development.
Knox’s propensity for dropping catchable passes has been a bit overblown. He had three drops in 2020 -- an 11.1 percent drop rate, roughly in line with Ertz and Austin Hooper. It was in 2019 that drops were truly an issue for Knox: He led all tight ends with nine drops, for a horrifying 24.3 percent drop rate. I shuddered upon writing that. Knox reportedly sought help with his case of dropsies this offseason, working with a vision specialist who worked to improve Knox’s hand-eye coordination. His vision coach, Ryan Harrison, said the program has improved Knox’s “depth perception and his tracking ability.” That’s good news. It’s certainly not bad news.
Knox’s dearth of opportunity in the Bills’ pass-heavy offense is a legitimate point of concern, as is his lack of involvement in the red zone (Knox was fourth on the team in red zone targets last season). He doubled the snap count of the next closest Buffalo tight end last season but drew a humble 44 targets. That comes out to a not-so-nice 7.69 percent target share. Eliminate the four games Knox missed in 2020 and he saw a 9 percent target share -- a two percent dropoff from his 2019 target share. Early-season struggles from Knox could force Buffalo coaches to see what they have in Hollister or Sweeney, turning Knox into a part-time player. His virtually nonexistent redraft ADP still makes Knox -- who should run lots of routes in one of the NFL’s most aggressive passing attacks -- a viable target.
Gerald Everett
Fantasy managers have long wanted a somewhat reliable third option in Seattle’s passing offense. We may have finally found one in Everett, the Rams’ former second-round pick.
Everett, after signing with the Seahawks in tandem with his former offensive coordinator in LA, is by all accounts first in line to do the route running and pass catching among Seattle tight ends. Head coach Pete Carroll, always one for colorful player descriptions, has called Everett “the fanciest, sweetest-looking receiver/tight end mix that we’ve had.”
“He’s like a wide receiver, he’s got terrific after-the-catch run ability, really aggressive and he’s a good blocker, too, and he knows the system inside and out,” Carroll said of Everett, who was seventh among tight ends in yards after the catch per reception in 2020. The Seahawks didn’t sign Everett to block -- no matter what Uncle Petey says. Pro Football Focus graded Everett -- who ran a pass route on 80 percent of his snaps -- as the league’s 17th worst blocking tight end in 2020.
Everett, for one, believes Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s use of pre-snap motion -- for wideouts and tight ends -- will make the team’s offense more dynamic and remove some defensive pressure from Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. “There’s a reason why I’m here and there’s a reason why Shane (Waldron) is here and we’re definitely going to make that a crucial thing to improve on,” Everett said of the team’s less-static 2021 offense.
But Will Dissly, you say. How could anyone forget about Will Dissly? Seahawks beat writers love Dissly, as do coaches and teammates. He seems like an affable fella. Once upon a time (in 2019) Dissly was sixth in tight end points per game (15.5) after the season’s first month. He then suffered a brutal Achilles tear that wiped out his 2019 campaign and limited him for some of 2020.
Tight end has been a point of emphasis in Seattle OC Shane Waldron’s system. Everett and Dissly have reportedly made notable plays in training camp. Probably that means Everett won’t have a total lock on pass routes and tight end targets -- certainly not like Trautman in New Orleans. But his production as a pass catcher and his familiarity with Waldron serve as a not-so-subtle hint that he’ll serve as the team’s primary pass catching tight end this season.
Going in the 13th round of 12-team leagues, Everett would be a painless cut for fantasy managers if my analysis proves painfully incorrect.
Dan Arnold
Do you hear that? It’s Dan Arnold buzz in the air. It’s faint, but listen closely. It’s there.
The uber-athletic 6'6" tight end has reportedly established a strong connection with Sam Darnold, which makes sense, since their last names are similar (this is analytics whether you like it or not). Arnold, who has proven productive when given the chance, has zero competition for routes or targets while incumbent Panthers starter Ian Thomas continues his never-ending struggles.
Thomas in 2020 ran the ninth most tight end pass routes and commanded an abominable 30 targets. If Arnold inherits that role -- a near inevitability at this point -- he could emerge as a solid fantasy option that keeps managers afloat while league mates flounder in the waiver wire slop. Arnold has been an efficient producer in his limited usage. Last year, he was eighth among tight ends in fantasy points over expectation, according to Rotoviz.
“He’s a unique player in that he’s a receiver/tight end combination guy that you can use in a lot of different ways,” Carolina head coach Matt Rhule said of Arnold, 26, who caught 31 of 45 targets for 438 and four touchdowns last year in Arizona.
Tight end, by all accounts, is supposed to be a key part of Carolina offensive coordinator Joe Brady‘s system. The massive Arnold could turn that role into more than a few fantasy points this year. His role is as secure as any tight end mentioned in this space. That many fantasy managers have never heard his name should keep Arnold’s ADP underground for the rest of the summer.
Hayden Hurst
You’re wondering how a fantasy football writer is unaware that the Falcons spent massive draft capital on a truly generational tight end, and is now touting the team’s 2020 starting tight end. You’re bewildered. You’re apoplectic. I understand.
But what if I told you Kyle Pitts is not a tight end, but rather a tight end/receiver hybrid in an Arthur Smith-coached offense using more two tight end sets than anyone in the NFL. In Smith’s Titans offense last season, No. 2 tight end Anthony Firkser ran just 5.3 fewer pass routes per game than TE1 Jonnu Smith. The Titans last year led the NFL in 12 personnel -- one running back and two tight ends -- and it wasn’t close. Tennessee deployed 12 personnel 15 percent more than the league average. It worked too: The Titans posted above-average success rates on both run plays and pass plays with two tight ends on the field.
Last season was disappointing for Hurst, to be as kind as humanly possible. Hurst in 2020 was fourth in tight end pass routes and tied for ninth among tight ends with 85 targets, finishing the season 16th in tight end fantasy points per game. He entered the pantheon of empty route running tight end royalty.
This year could see Hurst -- who lost 20 pounds this offseason at the request of Atlanta’s tight ends coach -- become the forgotten piece of a potentially efficient Falcons offense (efficiency being the calling card of Smith’s Tennessee teams). Hurst told reporters in July not to think of the Falcons’ tight end situation as Pitts vs. Hurst, but as Pitts and Hurst.
The Athletic’s Tori McElhaney said last month that “there isn’t a competition between the two the way there is within other position groups. Because of Smith’s scheme, there are just as many opportunities for Hurst as Pitts. And if training camp is any indicator, we’ll see both of them on the field together a lot.” Matt Ryan will need a third pass catching option behind Calvin Ridley and Pitts. Why can’t Hurst be that guy over slot guy Russell Gage? In Smith’s system, it’s possible.
Though there are higher-ceiling tight end options late in 12 and 14-team drafts, Hurst could certainly become a steady source of fantasy production in leagues that make tight end relevant by inflating the position’s scoring.
