It’s been a fun month of best ball drafts since we last visited player ADPs. NFL teams held their team minicamps which gave way to more player rumors, contract situations, health statuses, etc. With these rumors comes ADP fluctuation as the market tries to read the lay of the best ball land in its current state, hoping to find the latest values while fading the latest player to be overhyped.
Looking at the players I pitched in last month’s article, let’s take a look at how their ADPs have moved.
Perhaps the most notable jump in ADP is that of Saquon Barkley. Barkley has been a third-round smash throughout much of the offseason but has seen his stock rise in recent weeks. Concerns about Barkley’s health seem to have fallen by the wayside, and reports emerged in mid-June that he is lining up all over the formation -- including in the slot and out wide. Barkley may still be a value at his second-round price, but the days of getting him in the third appear to be long gone.
The field also appears to have taken a stance on Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, with Sutton rising seven spots in ADP while Jeudy dropped just over four spots. Bears tight end Cole Kmet saw the biggest jump of any June tout, as he moved up 8.8 spots in ADP.
Last month, I touted Kmet as an easy positive regression candidate in 2022 after he went for 60-612-0 on 91 targets. I looked back at 22 years of data and found that Kmet was one of just four tight ends since 2000 to see 70+ targets and fail to score a touchdown and that on average tight ends with this kind of target volume have averaged 5.1 touchdowns per season.
Even with a slight rise in price, Kmet is a solid pick as the TE14 off the board.
NOTE: Advanced stats and metrics courtesy of PFF.com, rbsdm.com and RotoViz. Any reference to fantasy points is based on half-PPR scoring.
Early Round Buys
Aaron Jones (GB)
Underdog ADP: 17.3
FFPC ADP: 17.4
As it stands right now, Aaron Jones is going as the RB9 in both Underdog and FFPC leagues -- there’s a chance that is still too low.
The absence of Davante Adams will make Green Bay’s target distribution one to watch in 2022. Given the inexperienced receiving corps Aaron Rodgers has heading into this season, it’s not improbable to think Jones could emerge as one of the league’s top pass-catching backs.
Our own Denny Carter pointed out in his 2022 Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview that the absence of Adams has boded well for Jones in recent memory -- noting the following:
All of this seems good.
The threat of A.J. Dillon vulturing meaningful work from Jones remains a factor and is reflected in Dillon’s RB25 ADP, but both backs stand to benefit from Adams’ absence.
In addition to an increase in receiving work, the Packers could lean more heavily on the running game in 2022 after ranking 24th in neutral game script rush rate last season (41%) and had an overall pass frequency over expected of 4%, with a 12% pass frequency over expected on second and short situations.
Guys like Najee Harris and D’Andre Swift are often going ahead of Jones, but neither play in particularly great offenses. And it’s possible Jones finds a way to outscore a guy like Derrick Henry in a PPR format.
A year ago Jones was going as the RB10 in Underdog and FFPC drafts. Despite the absence of Adams, it feels like drafters are largely treating him the same this season. One of the league’s most efficient players in recent years, Jones could flirt with a top-five finish. And it’s like none of you even care.
Mike Williams (LAC)
Underdog ADP: 28.2
FFPC ADP: 39.4
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are going just a few picks away from one another, with Allen being the favorite among drafters.
A (mostly) healthy 2021 from Williams saw him post career-highs as he went for 76-1146-9 on 129 targets while commanding a 21% target market share. His 13 fantasy points per game were good for a WR13 finish -- Allen’s 12.8 was good for WR14.
While Allen has remained a model of consistency for fantasy drafters as he heads into his age-30 season, it’s worth asking whether or not a decline is coming. Since 2017, Allen has seen a steady decline in a handful of advanced metrics -- including lows in yards per route run (1.78) and targets per route run (23.4%).
Williams posted a career-best 1.97 YPRR in 2021 and also ranked second in the league with 21 contested catches on a 51.2% contested catch rate. On deep attempts (min. 20 targets), Williams ranked sixth in yards per reception (39.2), but also proved lethal in the red zone, ranking top-five in red-zone targets (41) and end zone targets (14).
After rewarding fantasy managers with a breakout season in 2021, expectations are high for Williams, who enters his age-28 season.
In addition to his breakout, Williams also plays in a Chargers offense that ranked first in pace of play and sixth in early-down pass rate (56.8%). You can make the argument that Allen is the safer play, but Williams is the high-upside swing in this potent offense.
Breece Hall (NYJ)
Underdog ADP: 45.2
FFPC ADP: 38.9
The Jets went all-in on Iowa State product Breece Hall when they made him the 36th overall pick of this year’s draft.
During his time at Iowa State, Hall spent his weekends wrecking opposing defenses. A Unanimous All-American in 2020, and a Consensus All-American in 2021, Hall posted a career rushing line of 718-3941-50 while also catching 82 passes for 734 yards and six scores.
Hall’s elite college production has given him favorable projections out of the gate, with the RotoViz Prospect Box Score Scout suggesting he could quickly turn into one of the league’s best backs.
In addition to his on-field production, Hall also blew up the NFL Scouting Combine, posting a 4.39 40-yard dash while also turning in elite vertical and broad jumps.
Before the selection of Hall, fantasy drafters held out hope that Michael Carter may turn into a value heading into his second season. A fourth-round draft pick out of North Carolina, Carter saw productive weeks when serving as the team’s lead back.
One of the great mysteries of 2021 was the Jets’ decision to play Tevin Coleman -- whose biggest contribution to the season was limiting Carter’s ceiling. Without Coleman in the lineup, Carter saw a significant jump in targets per game and was on pace for 105 targets while averaging 12.12 points per game. When Coleman missed Weeks 7 and 8, Carter emerged to post back-to-back top-12 weeks which included an overall RB1 performance (27.7 points) in Week 8 against the Bengals.
Potentially set for backup duty behind Hall in 2022, Carter remains an interesting handcuff option, but his rookie-year production is an encouraging sign for those willing to take the plunge on Hall.
Widely viewed as the better back and one who should see significantly more opportunity than Carter did as a rookie, Hall could prove to be a steal at his RB19 price tag.
For best ball tournament purposes, Hall and Carter are both intriguing options, as they draw the Lions, Jaguars and Seahawks in Weeks 15 thru 17.
Mid-Round Buys
Russell Gage (TB)
Underdog ADP: 72.5
FFPC ADP: 91.1
The Buccaneers took the plunge on Russell Gage this offseason, signing him to a three-year, $30 million deal. Gage was one of Tom Brady‘s priority targets this offseason, as the future Hall of Famer contacted Gage himself in hopes of recruiting him to the Bucs.
Now firmly entrenched as a member of Brady’s crew, Gage has a chance to be a bonafide contributor for the Bucs right out of the gate.
Just how much Gage can contribute will be partly dependent on when Chris Godwin returns from the torn ACL he suffered late last season. Godwin didn’t undergo surgery until early January, and to date, head coach Todd Bowles has been non-committal on whether or not Godwin would be ready for training camp. In late June it was reported that Godwin may be an early-season PUP candidate, which would force him to miss the first four weeks of the season.
In addition to Godwin’s absence, tight end Rob Gronkowski is retired (for now). Gronkowski had one of the best seasons of his career in 2021, totaling 55 receptions for 802 yards and six touchdowns on 89 targets. His 7.4 targets per game ranked fifth-best at the position but now serve as nothing more than a void for Gage to fill in 2022.
If there’s an offense a free agent receiver wants to inherit in his first season, it’s hard to find a more coveted one than Tampa Bay’s.
Outside of ranking second in points per game (30.1) and total yards (6,901), the Bucs have also ranked fourth in neutral game script pace and first in pass rate (64%) since Brady’s arrival. Their 59% early-down pass rate has been the third-highest in the league.
Brady and company went all-in on 2021’s aerial assault, as the 22-year vet threw a career-high 719 pass attempts while also leading the league in passing yards (5,316) and touchdowns (43).
Serving as Atlanta’s alpha receiver for much of last season, Gage turned in a solid receiving line of 66-770-4 in 14 games. Long-viewed as a slot receiver, Gage saw his fewest slot snaps since 2019 last season, lining up 203 times out wide and 202 times in the slot.
His 1.96 YRR ranked 17th-best in the league among receivers, while his YRR vs. man coverage (2.84) ranked 11th -- edging out fellow teammates Mike Evans (2.35) and Chris Godwin (2.20).
Since draft lobbies opened up, the fantasy community has been somewhat asleep on Gage. Going as a mid-WR3 in drafts, Gage has a chance to tap into high-end WR2 upside should Godwin miss time, and could be a low-end WR2 even with Godwin healthy.
Kadarius Toney (NYG)
Underdog ADP: 89.9
FFPC ADP: 118.7
Kadarius Toney entered the NFL with a college production profile that:
- Featured a fourth-year breakout
- No 1,000-yard seasons
- A combined 50-606-2 receiving line over his first three seasons
The #analytics folks had a jolly laugh as the Giants selected Toney with the 20th-overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Surely a player who flashed one good college season in four years couldn’t succeed with the Giants of all teams. We were certain.
Then Toney had his chance to shine. And to the surprise of some, he was #good.
In a rookie season that was limited to just 10 games, Toney managed a receiving line of 39-420-0 on 57 targets. For a guy who opened the year with just five targets over the first three weeks, Toney would go on to see two double-digit target games, which included a 13-target performance against the Cowboys in which he went for 10-189-0.
Toney posted an impressive targets per route run rate of 27% and was top 10 in both YRR (2.14), and YAC per reception (6.0). He also ranked third amongst receivers with a 31% missed tackles forced rate (min. 30 receptions). Were it not for his zero-touchdown rookie campaign and a myriad of injuries, fantasy managers would reflect much more fondly on Toney’s first season.
Under new coach Brian Daboll, whose Bills ranked sixth in neutral pace, the Giants could see an uptick in their offensive output this season. Toney’s far from a “free” player in drafts, but his risk is largely baked into his ADP, as he’s currently going as a low-end WR4 in drafts.
If the Giants are to tap into Toney’s ceiling, they’ll need to see major improvements in their offense. With last year’s defunct regime now gone, brighter days should soon be ahead.
Rachaad White (TB)
Underdog ADP: 130.8
FFPC ADP: 134.7
Of the running backs selected in this year’s draft, Rachaad White was one of five backs with rushing yards adjusted market share above 50%. He also led all running backs with a career 21% receiving yards market share and was one of only two backs with a running back dominator rating above 70% -- the other being Breece Hall (81%).
Tampa Bay selected White with the 91st-overall pick in this year’s draft, and he now heads into his rookie season as the presumed No. 2 back behind Leonard Fournette.
Reports on Fournette heading into training camp have been less than glowing, while White has been vocal about his intent to secure the team’s top running back spot this season.
The reasons already laid out for drafting Gage can apply to White as well. Tampa Bay is one of the premier offenses in the league, and Brady helped turn Fournette into the RB7 in points per game (15.8) last season.
Last season, the Bucs ranked second in running back targets per game (8.0) and led the way in receptions per game with 6.5. Going as an early 12th-round pick in fantasy drafts, White may contribute early as a pass-catcher, but has the rushing upside to eventually secure the team’s RB1 role he so desires.
Heading into his age-27, Fournette is nearing a decline in his career. White has been one of my favorite #ZeroRB targets this draft season.
Late Round Buys
Mystery Player (???)
Underdog ADP: 148.8
FFPC ADP: 121.1
Have a look at the two players below, and see if you can guess who they are. You should know that we are looking at two tight ends from last season.
The numbers for these two players are noticeably similar, yet you’d be surprised to know that one player is being drafted as a low-end TE1, while the other is currently going outside the top 15.
Perhaps even more interesting is the fact that the player with the better numbers across the board is the one drafters are presently fading.
If you guessed that the above players were Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox, you would be correct. If you’re now realizing you may be overvaluing Knox’s 2021 breakout -- you may also be correct.
Perhaps I need Knox explained to me like I’m five -- I won’t rule that out. He did miss two games with a hand injury, but his 2021 season, which was largely touchdown-dependent, has Underdog drafters taking him as the TE9 this offseason. Henry is currently going as the TE17.
While Knox plays in the more explosive offense, he faces much more competition for targets relative to Henry, whose biggest competition may be Jakobi Meyers.
Heading into year two with Mac Jones, it’s also possible the Patriots’ offense takes another step forward. In neutral game scripts last season, the Patriots ranked 28th in pace of play and were dead last in pass rate (49%). In regards to the passing game, New England has nowhere to go but up.
When allowed to pass, Jones performed well. The rookie signal-caller ranked 10th in air yards per attempt (8.1) and adjusted EPA per play (0.154) and was eighth in success rate (50.5%).
New England has every incentive to give Jones more command of the offense in 2022. Those buying low on Henry could feast on yet another productive season from one of the league’s better tight ends.
Robbie Anderson (CAR)
Underdog ADP: 169.8
FFPC ADP: 242.5
I mentioned Robbie Anderson back in May’s ADP article, highlighting how Anderson’s potential to bounce back from a wildly down year despite seeing 109 targets.
Now, with the trade of Baker Mayfield to Carolina, I feel the need to re-hash my argument for Anderson, whose ADP is likely to jump in the coming days/weeks.
Part of Anderson’s struggles in 2021 hinged on atrocious quarterback play. What’s even worse is that those atrocious quarterbacks struggled mightily when targeting him. Last season, among receivers who saw at least 80 targets, Anderson ranked 42nd out of 47 receivers with a catchable target rate of 71%. When Mayfield was last healthy in 2020, slot receiver Jarvis Landry saw a solid 80% catchable pass rate on 100 targets, while Rashard Higgins trailed just behind him with a 79% rate on 52 targets.
Known for specializing as a deep threat, the trade for Mayfield could bode well for Anderson. Per PFF.com, Mayfield ranked 15th in deep ball completion percentage in 2021 (40.0%) while Sam Darnold ranked 35th at 27.5%.
In 2020, Mayfield ranked an impressive fourth-best in deep-ball completion at 50% and ranked seventh as a rookie in 2018 at 44.4%. A down 2019 saw Mayfield struggle across the board, but the embattled quarterback has shown a knack for being a willing downfield passer, and one who excels at doing so.
For all that’s been made about Anderson’s comments on Mayfield earlier this offseason, Mayfield’s acquisition likely comes to Anderson’s benefit. Assuming Mayfield wins the starting job in training camp, Anderson could become a player we truly believe is “better in best ball”.
Chris Evans (CIN)
Underdog ADP: 204.5
FFPC ADP: 249.3
If you love players who are virtually free to acquire and play on good offenses, then look no further than Cincinnati’s Chris Evans.
Veteran running back Samaje Perine will be 27 at the start of this season and has held on to the backup running back job in Cincinnati for far too long. While Perine has performed admirably in his mop-up roles behind bell cow Joe Mixon, it’s impossible to overlook Evans heading into his second season in the league.
Cincinnati selected Evans in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft but kept him on the shelf for much of his rookie campaign. He finished with a rushing line of 17-77-0, while also catching 15 passes for 151 yards and 10 scores -- averaging an impressive 10.1 yards per reception.
At 5-foot-11, 219-pounds, Evans has the ideal size for a three-down back despite never playing that role at Michigan. In four seasons with the Wolverines, Evans would amass just 320 rush attempts for 1,795 yards and 15 scores but forced a missed tackle on 24.4% of his carries while posting a solid 3.84 yards after contact per attempt. For some perspective, Mixon forced a missed tackle on 26% of his carries and averaged 3.92 YCO/A during his days at Oklahoma.
Rumors have already surfaced that Evans has a chance to win Cincinnati’s third-down role during training camp -- a move that would surprise nobody at this point.
Should Evans win the RB2 role in camp, he becomes a must-start in fantasy if Mixon were to miss any time with injury. Any good news on him throughout training camp will only drive his ADP up.
