You know what tiers are. Players within tiers are all similar in projection, whereas the break between tiers is much more important. The biggest change in Best Ball versus normal leagues is an emphasis on ceiling outcomes. This applies to season-long and individual weeks. Given that most of the money in the Best Ball streets lies in tournaments, I’ve also added some weight to the final three weeks of the fantasy season.
Links to all of my Best Ball tiers can be found here:
QB Tiers | RB Tiers | WR Tiers | TE Tiers
Tier One
Josh Allen (1) -- The back-to-back QB1 overall is coming off a season that saw him throw for over 4,400 yards while rushing for another 700. He has two of the six best fantasy seasons ever posted by a quarterback and his biggest weapons are all returning for 2022. It’s hard to find an argument for anyone else atop these rankings.
Patrick Mahomes (2) -- In a down year, Mahomes threw for 4,839 yards and 37 touchdowns. Despite starting slow and adjusting to a new style of offense, he finished as the QB4. That kind of floor combined with his gaudy ceiling is worthy of second place in the rankings.
Kyler Murray (3) -- Typically thought of as a run-first quarterback, Murray took the next step as a passer in 2021, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt with a five percent touchdown rate. His rushing numbers took a hit, but he has now shown the ability to run and pass at the highest level.
Justin Herbert (4) -- Herbert followed up his record-setting rookie campaign with another phenomenal season. He finished top-three in completions, yards, and touchdowns last year. After matching or exceeding him in most passing stats, Herbert is worthy of being drafted in a similar range to Mahomes.
Tier 2
Lamar Jackson (5) -- Forced to throw a career-high in attempts, Jackson’s efficiency took a sizable hit in 2021. He remained an elite runner, averaging 63.9 yards on the ground, but the upcoming season will test his ability to put it all together now that the league has years of tape on him.
Jalen Hurts (6) -- Hurts made progress as a passer in 2021, boosting his completion rate and yards per attempt. He also did this while leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards (784) and attempts (139). He is an obvious candidate to join Tier 1 in his third season, but we need to see it before adding him to the highest group.
Trey Lance (7) -- Lance is as unproven as it gets for a potential QB1, but his ceiling is sky-high. In two starts as a rookie, he rushed 24 times for 120 yards. His season will be one of the biggest inflection points of Best Ball outcomes.
Russell Wilson (8) -- Wilson could shed his Pete Carroll shackles and finish as the QB1 overall, or his new offense could be similarly slow and balanced. Denver is one of the biggest question marks entering the season, and Wilson is at the center of that uncertainty.
Tom Brady (9) -- We all know exactly what Brady is at this point in his career. He’s a statue in the pocket, but he’s also the statue that led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns last year.
Tier 3
Dak Prescott (10) -- With the Cowboys fielding an elite defense, Prescott’s attempts per game dropped to a three-year low, despite his efficiency staying high. Prescott was also less of a rushing threat than ever. He remains a solid QB1 bet, though it’s unlikely that he finishes as a quarterback you couldn’t win without.
Matthew Stafford (11) -- Unleashed from the curse of Detroit, Stafford absolutely dominated in his debut with Sean McVay. He finished second in touchdown rate (6.8 percent) and third in yards per attempt (8.1). Stafford doesn’t offer much with his legs, but another season like 2021 and he will make the leap to Tier 2.
Joe Burrow (12) -- Burrow led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9) and completion rate (70.4 percent) in his breakout season. It will be hard to keep up those insane rates, but playing alongside Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will ensure that he is one of the most efficient passers in the league.
Aaron Rodgers (13) -- Rodgers has taken home the MVP trophy in consecutive years and finished both of those seasons as a top-five fantasy quarterback. Normally, it would be hard to argue against him falling in one of the highest tiers. However, the loss of Davante Adams muddies the waters of his recent fantasy success, dropping him into the third tier.
Tier 4
Kirk Cousins (15) -- Cousins has settled in as fringe QB1 in Minnesota, topping 4,200 yards and 30 scores in three of his four seasons with the Vikings. The addition of head coach Kevin O’Connell gives him some added upside, though a Stafford-like breakout may be asking for a bit too much from the 33-year-old.
Tua Tagovailoa (16) -- Tagovailoa’s touchdown rate and yards per attempt both saw an uptick in his second season. On the other hand, he doubled his interception total. After getting a new head coach and Tyreek Hill in the course of a single offseason, 2022 is a prove-it year for Tua.
Daniel Jones (17) -- After a promising rookie season, Jones has fallen off the map. Over the past two years, he has tossed 21 scores to 17 interceptions while also getting sacked at an enormous rate. The Giants are now betting on head coach Brian Daboll and a healthy receiving corps propelling him to a breakout season in 2022.
Justin Fields (18) -- Fields struggled as a rookie but finished his season by showing some upside as a runner, even topping 100 yards once. The Bears did next to nothing to support him on the field, but a significant coaching change should point him in the right direction.
Derek Carr (19) -- Carr quietly finished fifth in passing yards last year, but a dismal touchdown rate led to him scoring just 23 times. The hope is that Davante Adams, a touchdown-scoring wizard, can fix that leak in Carr’s game, though he has never been the type of quarterback to wow you with 30-point performances.
Tier 5
Jameis Winston (20) -- Winston showed signs of improvement by slashing his interception rate while throwing a touchdown on 8.7 percent of his attempts. This came at the cost of his volume, as the Saints couched him in a run-first offense. He should be similarly sporadic in 2022, which typifies the “better in best ball” mantra.
Trevor Lawrence (21) -- Under the watchful eye of Urban Meyer, Lawrence posted a horrific rookie season, leading the NFL in interceptions while averaging 214 yards per game. Former Eagles head coach Doug Pederson is now tasked with a page one rewrite of the No. 1 overall pick’s career.
Zach Wilson (22) -- Wilson got massacred as a rookie, posting a sack rate of greater than 10 percent while being intercepted more often than he scored. Rookies take their lumps, but Wilson needs to show serious signs of improvement to become a fantasy QB2.
Ryan Tannehill (23) -- Tannehill’s numbers dropped for the second straight year as he played with a rarely-healthy receiving group. For 2022, he will be working with a rookie who has struggled to make it through practices and Robert Woods coming off a torn ACL. Tannehill has some rushing upside and was efficient in previous years, but it’s more than possible that his best days are behind him.
Matt Ryan (24) -- Ryan appeared to fall off the old man’s cliff in 2021, dropping his target depth and his efficiency numbers in the process. However, a depleted receiving room and a first-year head coach both deserve some of the blame. Upgrades on both fronts in Indianapolis should give him a shot at returning to form.
Mac Jones (25) -- You could make an argument that Jones is a better real-life quarterback than roughly a dozen players ranked ahead of him. For fantasy purposes, the Pats’ 32nd-ranked pass rate when within one score of their opponent dooms Jones to the bottom of the fourth tier.
Tier 6
Jared Goff (26) -- Goff finished the 2021 season as the QB23 by points per game. He now gets to throw to Jameson Williams and D.J. Chark. He should also see a better bill of health for his incumbent weapons. Goff marks the start of the quarterbacks who are only worth considering as QB3s or the QB2 behind a stud.
Deshaun Watson (27) -- Watson is an elite fantasy option when on the field, but he will make just five appearances in the Best Ball season. With Watson out for most of the season, I can only justify taking him as the QB3 on a roster that already has two quarterbacks taken from the third tier or later.
Davis Mills (28) -- Mills looked lost in his early starts but turned things around toward the end of his rookie season. He closed out the year with nine scores and two interceptions in his final five games. Mills still has accuracy issues to work through, but he should be good for 17 games at a near-zero cost.
Carson Wentz (29) -- Dumped from his second team in as many years, it’s clear that Wentz is a mistake-prone quarterback who can provide the occasional big game. However, even that has become increasingly rare. He has topped 300 yards three times in the past two years.
Baker Mayfield (30) -- Mayfield still needs to win a camp battle over Sam Darnold to secure the starting job, but that shouldn’t be too hard. His worst finish in EPA per dropback has been No. 23 in the league. Darnold’s best finish is No. 27.
Marcus Mariota (31) -- After spending two seasons as a backup, Mariota is back under center and reunited with Arthur Smith, his former offensive coordinator. He offers some rushing potential but has proven to be a limited passer. Mariota is also at risk of being benched before the season ends.
