In this weekly article, we’ll use the early betting lines from Vegas to take a deeper look at which games to target and avoid for NFL DFS. Implied team totals have positive correlations with fantasy output, especially for quarterbacks. Plus, we’ll highlight some potentially under the radar teams with high implied team totals despite a lower over/under. Note that these lines will probably change over the course of the week, which is why we call it ‘starting’ points. This week the article focuses on the full Saturday – Sunday slate of four NFL Divisional games.
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Cincinnati at Tennessee, Saturday 4:30 PM ET, Total 47 points
Titans minus-3.5
Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow put on a show in the Wild Card round, but C.J. Uzomah might have been the bargain MVP for DFS in that game, catching all six of his targets and scoring. You can expect all three to be very popular this week as Recency Bias dominates a lot of lineup decisions, especially on DraftKings and FanDuel, where Chase is quite discounted relative to Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams. He’s the second-most expensive receiver on Yahoo but the way to beat Tennessee is through the air, so he is a priority spend this week, especially when you remember that the Titans were the second-best WR matchup for fantasy. The big letdown for the Bengals and DFS players was Joe Mixon, who was only the 10th-best running back of the first weekend of playoff action. Mixon had plenty of volume, but Las Vegas clearly prioritized stopping him (to their own detriment). Tennessee was the league’s least-fantasy friendly run defense, and that is saying something. After Mixon averaged just 2.8 YPC last weekend, people will hesitate to use him this week, including me. Running back is tough this week, as usual, but I don’t see a high probability of Mixon exceeding value in this matchup. The Titans barely allowed one 100-plus yard rushing effort (by New England) since Jacksonville did it in Week 5.
For the Titans, the big story is whether Derrick Henry will be available for the game. The plan is for him to play this week, and he is priced accordingly. Barring outstanding practice reports all week, I’m hesitant to trust him in cash games, but like Mixon, think his upside is worth a roll of the dice in multi-entry tournaments. The Bengals finished the regular season as a below-average run defense for fantasy (13th in fantasy points allowed). If Henry doesn’t play or will be on a strict snap count, D’Onta Foreman is a player I’m comfortable using in any format. You can generally expect a decent floor from Ryan Tannehill but he finished the season on a real high note, throwing for four scores against the Texans. I’d use caution with him considering that the Bengals only allowed three 300-plus yard passing games this season, and zero since the Jets in Week 8 (the Jets!?!?). But, if Henry is back in the mix, it might force the Bengals to focus less on pass defense and stack the box. More on this later in the week… If you decide to fade the Bengals’ offense, thinking that they might have peaked too soon, the Titans’ D/ST is one of the more affordable opportunistic options I could see making a difference in lineups.
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San Francisco at Green Bay, Saturday 8:15 PM ET, Total 47.5 points
Packers minus-5.5
The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams make for a surprisingly affordable mini-stacking option on FanDuel and Yahoo, and I like the kind of lineups I can build around them. This game features the largest spread of the second round of the playoffs, giving the Packers one of the highest implied team totals. The Packers won every home game this season, and Rodgers averaged about three more fantasy points in Green Bay than on the road. He threw for 261 passing yards and two touchdowns when these teams met in Week 3. Aaron Jones was good in that game as well, rushing for a score and amassing nearly 100 scrimmage yards. He’s fully healthy now, and though he is the second- or third-most expensive RB this week, his salary is still affordable if you prefer to attack the 49ers on the ground. For me, Jones is a player I don’t mind rostering, but I’m not going out of my way to build around him. After the big three, you are throwing darts hoping for a bargain touchdown. Allen Lazard is the best bet, as he had 10 receiving scores in the regular season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Josiah Deguara are too risky for cash games even on a four-game slate. The 49ers are middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to receivers, but near the bottom of the league when it comes to tight ends. The Packers’ defense is a final consideration here. If you read this regularly, you know I like them at home, and I already noted that this is the biggest spread. They are somehow the cheapest unit on Yahoo, but most expensive on the other sites.
I’m not eager to build around the 49ers this weekend, but as stand-alone players, fitting Eli Mitchell or Deebo Samuel into lineups makes sense. Their volume is off the charts and they are the clear go-to guys in critical situations for this offense. Jimmy Garoppolo is probably going to be in catch-up mode here, which could mean a few miscues (especially as the injuries are piling up for him), but it also makes he and Wild Card disappointment George Kittle tantalizing GPP targets. Kittle caught one pass last week, and hasn’t had even a decent fantasy day since Week 15 vs. Atlanta, but he was pretty good in this matchup during Week 3. In that game, Kittle caught seven of nine targets for 92 receiving yards and rushed for nine more yards.
LA Rams at Tampa Bay, Sunday 3:00 PM ET, Total 48.5 points
Buccaneers minus-3
The point totals get higher on Sunday and the spreads get narrower. Vegas doesn’t expect Tom Brady, Mike Evans, and Co. to roll to victory quite so easily in this game, and the under hitting would not surprise me at all. This is going to be a good battle between the Bucs’ offensive line and the Rams’ defensive front. Altogether, it makes me a little uneasy to roster Brady this week. His salary is just high enough that I’d rather pay up for Mahomes, Allen, or Rodgers (FD and DK) or save with Burrow or Rodgers (Yahoo). He was good in the first matchup between these teams (over 400 passing yards, two total touchdowns), and Mike Evans had a big 100-plus yard receiving game, but the whole composition of the Bucs’ offense has changed since then. One big question is again about Leonard Fournette. Optimism reigns early in the week, but the Rams’ run defense looked very good against Arizona’s dual-threat backs (including Kyler Murray), allowing only 61 rushing yards. I’m probably passing on him this week. In fact, I’m using Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski here and there when the price is right, based on their high volume and the likelihood of a close game and that’s about it.
The Rams dominated the Cardinals Monday night, which was fun for their fans, but also means they get two fewer days of rest than the Bucs. How much of a difference that will make remains to be seen, but they escaped unscathed by additional injuries. Matthew Stafford managed to not only NOT throw an interception, but accrue two passing and one rushing touchdown in the victory for his best fantasy line since Week 12 in Green Bay. This feels like a team that is peaking at the right time, and Cooper Kupp didn’t even have a great game in the Wild Card win. Odell Beckham Jr. narrowly outscored him in half-PPR scoring, though both receivers caught touchdowns from Stafford. This line and OBJ’s much reduced salary are going to make him a popular lineup filler this week, but Kupp should still be the player you strive to fit when possible. He caught two of Stafford’s four passing touchdowns when these teams played in Week 3, catching nine of 12 targets for one of his 30-fantasy point games. The RBBC was in full effect Monday night, with Cam Akers looking very eager to make up for a lost season. He was a little rusty, but managed a couple big plays and over 100 total scrimmage yards. His usage, and now his salary too, have overtaken that of Sony Michel. If you build a lineup lacking any Bucs, I don’t hate the Rams’ D/ST this week either. They weren’t great in the first matchup during Week 3 (allowing Brady to throw for over 400 yards), but have stood up to a lot of good teams since then and have averaged slightly more fantasy points on the road than at home this season.
Buffalo at Kansas City, Sunday 6:30 PM ET, Total 55 points
Chiefs minus-2.5
They’re making us wait for the (offensive) game of the week but it should be worth it. As much as possible, I’m trying to stock my lineups with key pieces from this game. Travis Kelce is very nearly a must-play on this slate, despite the high cost. Beyond him, you should feel comfortable with Patrick Mahomes, especially on Yahoo ($34), and if nothing changes to the running back situation, Jerrick McKinnon. I think it’s unlikely that Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t back for this game, but if that is the case, McKinnon made his case on Sunday afternoon. The question is, can we trust Andy Reid to ride the hot hand into next week? McKinnon would be the most popular play of the slate at his salary if things go his way during practice this week. Tyreek Hill is due for a big game, but Buffalo won’t make it easy. Without Tre’Davious White, the secondary is less scary, but it still ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. Hill is the GPP receiver to spend on when you’ve exhausted Kupp, Adams, and Samuel lineups. I think Byron Pringle’s two touchdowns were a bit fluky and those that count on a repeat performance will be disappointed in this Divisional Round game.
The Bills finished the regular season just ahead of the Chiefs in scoring and also look like a team peaking at the right time. With or without degrees on the thermostat this team can put up points, and what’s really scary is that Josh Allen has been better on the road than at home this season. One of those games was in Kansas City, where Allen threw for three and rushed for one additional touchdown with zero missteps. Stefon Diggs only had a couple of bad games this season, but one was vs. the Chiefs (another was the Wild Card game vs. New England). Kansas City has been a pretty fantasy-friendly matchup this year, ranking second in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and 11th to WR. Expect a better showing from Diggs this week, with lower rostership too. People might flock to Dawson Knox after his 2-TD game last weekend, but hold your horses. He’s had more bad games than great ones, and this latest was his best by far. It’s unfair and unreasonable to expect a repeat performance, so if you roster Knox, prepare for something in the 5-10 fantasy point range for output, which might be fine for the price. The Bills had been featuring a lot more of Devin Singletary to close out the regular season, and he saw double-digit carries for the fifth straight game in the Wild Card. He kept it going, converting two of them for touchdowns which makes eight scores in the last five games. Trusting him one more week is something you might have to do, given his salary and the alternatives. On DK, he’s still just $5900.
