This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
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Safe Stacks:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Nick Chubb
With the highest over/under of the week, expect this to be a popular game stack. Using last year’s DvP numbers as a guide (not as gospel), the matchups here are ideal for DFS. Cleveland was susceptible to opposing passers, while Kansas City was one of the more generous run defenses. Given the strengths of these two offenses, it’s easy to slot in Mahomes, Kelce, and perhaps Tyreek Hill for KC, with Chubb and perhaps Kareem Hunt from the Browns. Chubb could almost always be the top rusher of the week, but is priced far below the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. On DraftKings (full PPR), you might consider Hunt in addition to or instead of Chubb. Last year, the Browns used both backs liberally and the spread here suggests that Cleveland should be using more passing downs as the game goes on, and the salary savings he offers could be useful to buck up the rest of your lineup.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Alvin Kamara, Marquez Calloway
The Packers are the modest road favorites here, in the second highest point total game of the slate. However, both teams have reasonably high implied team totals (27 points – Green Bay, 23 points – New Orleans). I love the high team total/QB fantasy points correlation which is why I’m prioritizing Rodgers here. The Saints have an average defense, which has traditionally been more effective in stopping the run than the pass. If you wanted to differentiate your lineup significantly, you’d swap Rodgers for Jameis Winston, whom I feel is flying very under the radar. Of course, Green Bay was among the best rushing matchups last season, so Kamara is sure to get a lot of play this weekend – on the field and across DFS sites. He is absolutely worth paying up for.
Davante Adams is a no-brainer as he can routinely rack up double-digit high-quality targets and catches from Rodgers when healthy. He’s our highest projected receiver this week. One of our best value (fantasy points per dollar) receivers, though, is Calloway. He showed a nice rapport with Winston in the preseason and is looking like the de facto No. 1, at least until Michael Thomas returns. He’s extremely cheap this week and should be in about 100 percent of cash game lineups.
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Contrarian Stacks:
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jonathan Taylor
It’s not that any of these players are risky, it’s more that no one is really hyping this game. The Seahawks are small road favorites in a game that has the potential to be very back and forth. One reason for a lack of enthusiasm could be that the Colts defense was very stout last year. They allowed very few fantasy points per game, points per game, and were particularly effective against the run (90.5 rushing yards per game allowed). Many people are skeptical that they can repeat such a good season defensively, but I’m still prioritizing the Seattle pass game. Wilson is reliable and Metcalf can be freakishly good. He can also disappear at times, which is why this isn’t a “safe” stack, in favor of a Tyler Lockett big game. If you find yourself in a salary crunch, I don’t mind saving with Lockett ($6 cheaper on Yahoo, $800 on DraftKings, and $900 on FanDuel). Taylor is the Colts’ best offensive weapon. He’s a high floor running back with tons of upside on the ground and through the air.
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets: Sam Darnold, Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis
Both of these teams made moves in the offseason that could allow them to undergo a kind of “worst to first” transformation this season. I don’t actually think first is in the cards for either, but the only way to go is up, on offense at least. Both defenses still project to rank in the bottom third of the league for 2021, which is great for us. It’s a revenge game for Darnold, who would surely love to prove that it wasn’t him, it was the Jets. McCaffrey is the man to help him with that and the only thing contrarian about him is his salary. Yikes, it’s tough to pay top dollar as he is the most expensive overall player on FD and DK (second behind Mahomes on Yahoo), but even in half-PPR he should be able to reach value. The high price will keep his roster percentages down, hopefully. I’m going with Anderson here, for the big play ability and the fact that he’s cheaper, as well as likely less popular than DJ Moore. Davis was one of my favorite season-long targets as the WR1 on an improved Jets offense. He was targeted on over 50 percent of Zach Wilson’s passes in the final preseason game, catching four of six. Davis had some good games last year, ultimately catching over 70 percent of his targets and falling just 16 receiving yards short of the 1000-yard mark.
Mini-Stack of the week:
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs
The Bills are the second-biggest favorite (minus-6.5 points) vs. Pittsburgh this week in what will be a heavily televised game nationwide. There are two guys to make that spread a reality, and they are Allen and Diggs. For a very high-floor, high-upside stack, you can’t go wrong here. The Steelers’ defense should be outmatched by one of the best offenses of 2020. Allen’s rushing ability is a huge asset, while Diggs should haul in double-digit receptions. This one can be utilized in any contest format.
