This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
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Safe Stacks:
Philadelphia Eagles at NY Giants: Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, Saquan Barkley
Jalen Hurts is our NFL DFS Optimizer’s favorite QB this week. Though the Eagles aren’t in the highest scoring game, and aren’t the biggest favorites, it should still be a plus game environment for him. The Gian’s aren’t a good overall defense, but they can be especially generous on the ground which is where Hurts has shined lately. With three rushing touchdowns last week, he should be on everyone’s radar. It would be nice to see some more balance through the air, like he showed at the beginning of the season, but Hurts is still a solid play in this game. Goedert is a cheap way to get in on an Eagles receiver, and is a reasonably high-floor TE option on this slate. Those playing big tournaments might want to consider DeVonta Smith and Miles Sanders instead or in addition to Goedert. Smith has a high ceiling, while Sanders could, in his second game back, take on an even more dominant role in the backfield. I like Evan Engram as a possible bargain TE play from the Giants, but there is no denying that Barkley is the safe way to go with this stack. Philadelphia is good in the secondary but they have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. He is a candidate to put up RB1 numbers for an RB8-10 salary.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, George Kittle
This one will cost you, but the way the Vikings are rolling right now, even against good defenses like the Packers last week, makes it worth the salary hit. Cousins has the luxury of Justin Jefferson in addition to Cook and Thielen, my top Minnesota plays this week. Cook is just someone I roster when I can, and he fits here. The dual-threat back is one of the safest DFS plays most weeks. Jefferson is going to be a focal point of the 49ers’ defense, which I’m hoping tips the balance in Thielen’s favor this weekend. Thielen is also a bit cheaper than Jefferson, which matters here. The best matchup goes to Cousins, as the 49ers have snuck into being a Top 10 QB matchup for fantasy this season. Close, high scoring games are where he thrives, and that is exactly what this one should be. Choosing Kittle over Deebo Samuel isn’t easy, but if you want a super solid stack he’s the TE you choose. Looking better by the week, Garoppolo loves him and why not? Kittle has a 73 percent catch rate and has hauled in a touchdown in each of his three games back.
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans/Chris Godwin
The Bucs are an obvious target for stacking this weekend with the highest implied team total of the slate. Brady is our most expensive QB, but his 29 passing touchdowns are four more than the next closest. The Colts are the fifth-best QB and WR matchup for fantasy, and sixth-best for TEs. I think it’s going to be a Gronk week, as he looked good in his first game back from the rib injury, but failed to find the end zone. Brady is big on equalizing if you haven’t noticed. I generally prefer Godwin to Evans, but I can’t make a strong case for either over the other here. Both should thrive. Use your personal preference or the slight salary difference between them to decide. I noted Pittman as a bargain receiver in Wednesday’s article, despite him not being as cheap as the usual candidates. His salary has fallen a lot, and my instinct is that the Colts are going to need to pass more in this game than they have in the last couple. Pittman is the main offensive weapon after Jonathan Taylor, and you can have him for about two-thirds of the price.
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Contrarian Stacks:
Jacksonville vs. Atlanta: Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones, James Robinson, Kyle Pitts
Bettors aren’t sure what to do with this game, as both offenses rank in the bottom six in points scored per game, and both defenses rank in the bottom seven in points per game allowed. I think we can use the talent in this game to take advantage of the poor defenses and come out with some surprising sources of fantasy points. Could this be the breakout game for Lawrence? It’s arguably his best shot to approach his Week 1 numbers or better. The Falcons are the third-best QB matchup and fourth-most generous in overall fantasy points allowed. Marvin Jones, while boring, continues to be a steady presence in this offense, dominating the targets, catches and scoring (insomuch as three touchdowns can be considered dominant). I’d like to promote Laviska Shenault, who hasn’t scored all season despite his versatility and raw talent. If you are a gambler, this is a great spot for him to finally do something as well (especially if Jamal Agnew is out). Robinson has had only one single-digit fantasy game since Week 2, at Seattle. The Jaguars have had some tough opponents lately, and Robinson has seen his salary fall a bit. I think he has a big bounce-back game this weekend vs. a Falcons’ defense that you can definitely run on. The Falcons have a lost season, and things have been tough on Pitts what with facing good defenses, having no one else for those defenses to really focus on, and Matt Ryan having one of, if not the worst year of his career. Still, this is Jacksonville and Cordarrelle Patterson might be back. There is hope for Pitts, and I expect him to be rostered at a low rate given his still pretty high salary.
Mini-Stacks of the week:
Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey
Carolina will travel south to Miami this weekend, in a game that isn’t getting a lot of attention. Bettors have it as a pick’em with a pretty low over/under. The Dolphins are an average defense, but allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Newton is cheap enough (especially on DraftKings) that his rushing upside outweighs the risk of a low-volume pass attack, and helps offset McCaffrey’s cost. In his first full game back, Newton targetEd McCaffrey eight times, and McCaffrey caught seven passes for 60 yards and a touchdown. This is a high-floor, high-upside stack that won’t totally break the bank.
