This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
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Safe Stacks:
LA Rams at Minnesota: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson
This game has the highest point total on the main slate and should be a close one, perfect for DFS stacking. This is one of the most expensive stacks I’ve recommended this season, but I can’t think of three safer players in better environments. Minnesota allows the most fantasy points to wide receivers and fourth-most to QBs. Stafford and Kupp kept the magic alive on Tuesday night, and Kupp now leads all receivers by around 80 fantasy points, depending on scoring formats. With his crazy target volume and catch rate, he should be worth the price again in a great game environment. A distant third in the half-PPR wide receiver fantasy rankings, Jefferson has scored in three games straight, and averages about 10 targets per game. With or without Adam Thielen, he’s been a valuable asset most weeks. He’s been slightly better at home (22 fantasy points per game), if you’re looking for something to nudge you over the edge on him.
LA Chargers at Houston: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen/Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler/Justin Jackson, Chargers D/ST
Herbert and the Chargers are an easy team to stack, and I love them in a fantasy-friendly matchup with Houston this weekend. It’s almost a choose your own adventure with them, as there are plenty of viable options to choose from. Herbert is the No. 2 fantasy QB right now, just behind Josh Allen. He’s got one of the highest implied team totals, a great correlate to QB fantasy points. Allen and Williams have flip-flopped production and salaries all season long. Right now, Allen is dominating and is considerably pricier than Williams. Williams has been more efficient with only six fewer half-PPR fantasy points than Allen on 26 fewer targets and 28 fewer catches. Use Williams for the lower cost, risk/reward play, who should be more on the reward side in this game, but Allen hasn’t had a single-digit PPR fantasy game once this season. He’s the safer cash game option. Austin Ekeler seems to have avoided the COVID list, and he makes for a great, if expensive way to round out this stack. I liked Jackson in the bargain article this week, but this is going to be hard to predict. On the one hand, the Chargers don’t want to abuse Ekeler as they make a push for a wild card slot in the AFC playoffs. On the other, he gives them the best chance to do that. One scenario I can envision is an early Chargers lead in this game, which could lead to Jackson getting another 12-15 carries and a target or two. For the price, Jackson offers little risk and considerable possible reward.
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Contrarian Stack:
Seattle vs. Chicago: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, David Montgomery
This is a pretty gross game, but it’s one of many gross games on this slate. The Seahawks are touchdown favorites at home and Chicago has some defensive weaknesses that can be exploited. The Bears allow the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs and WRs. I don’t know if anyone has the stomach to roster Metcalf anymore, especially since Tyler Lockett should definitely be back for Week 16, but I feel like if you do, it could really pay off. He’s not washed, he’s getting loads of targets, and Metcalf’s ceiling game is as good as anyone’s. He’s beyond due to get in the end zone like three times this weekend. On the flip side, Chicago’s offense is a mess; they score the fourth-fewest points per game. They are committed to the run, and Montgomery has taken advantage in good matchups this season (and in his career). Seattle is the league’s second-best RB matchup for fantasy. Montgomery is working with four consecutive PPR finishes in the double-digits and has been a pretty reliable outlet for Justin Fields with 22 targets in the last three games.
Mini-Stack of the week:
Patrick Mahomes and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The Chiefs have a couple of huge question marks this weekend with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both on the COVID list to start the week. To play it safe, but still take advantage of this plus game environment – the Chiefs are 10-point favorites at home in a relatively high scoring game, I’m going QB-RB. Pittsburgh is a better pass defense than run defense, not that it matters much when Mahomes is zeroed in, but my goal with this mini-stack is to capture all the Chiefs offensive scores. Edwards-Helaire didn’t get in the end zone last weekend, but he did dominate the touches. His salary is super cheap and I think he gives a reasonable floor/ceiling combo for this slate.
