This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
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Safe Stacks:
Dallas Cowboys at LA Chargers: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Mike Williams
With a massive 55-point over/under, this game should be one of the best to target in DFS this weekend. While the Chargers are the home favorites, it’s Prescott I’m inclined to trust. To make this game stack more contrarian, one could totally sub in Justin Herbert. With Michael Gallup lost for a few weeks, expect Dak to target Lamb and Cooper even more. It’s possible that Dalton Schultz could see some increased action after catching six of six targets in Week 1, but I wouldn’t put him in a cash game stack. It might be safer to put Keenan Allen here for the Chargers, but you’re really pushing the salary envelope if you do. Receiving only one less target than Allen, I feel very confident about Williams’ floor and upside this week. His sideline game is already looking great.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds, Justin Jefferson
It worked in Week 1, but that’s certainly not the only reason to love the Cardinals this week. They’re at home, favored over a Vikings team that just allowed 27 points to Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Murray and Hopkins were efficient together, as both of Hopkins’ red zone targets went for touchdowns. Christian Kirk was impressive in Week 1, but with A.J. Green and Rondale Moore also in the mix, I am trusting only the true No. 1 in Hopkins with my cash game lineups. Like I said last week, mixing Green or Moore into your tournament lineups could have huge ROI. Edmonds was the more effective running back, and if the Cardinals can use him like the Bengals used Joe Mixon last week, he’s going to be a great value. To complete the game stack, consider Jefferson instead of Thielen. Their salaries are still very similar, but the likelihood of Thielen repeating his massive Week 1 performance is pretty slim. Jefferson will have his good weeks too, and if the Cardinals defense keys in on Thielen it could be easy going for him on Sunday. After all, he still had nine targets on the day.
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Contrarian Stacks:
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston: Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Tyrod Taylor
Although the Browns are one of the biggest favorites of the slate, they’re a tough team to stack. Baker Mayfield isn’t trustworthy, especially in a game where they shouldn’t have to throw a ton (but read on), because we know the Browns prefer to rely on Chubb and Kareem Hunt to move the ball. Chubb will be popular, no doubt, but even though Landry made the most of Week 1, he only had five targets and that will worry plenty of people. There are a lot of high scoring games to pull from and I think Landry could go overlooked. With no Odell Beckham Jr. this week, Landry should be seeing the highest quality and volume of targets. It’s still too early in the season to say whether Houston’s impressive showing (*against the Jaguars) was a fluke or whether they might not be as bad as expected. If you think the latter is possible, rostering a Taylor-Cooks stack here will save you a lot of salary cap in a GPP lineup. Taylor has a rushing floor that makes this a bit easier, and was efficient and accurate with his passes in Week 1. It won’t be quite as easy against a better Cleveland defense, but they are beatable through the air. If the Texans can keep this game at all competitive, both sides should be fantasy worthy.
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Denver Broncos at Jacksonville: Teddy Bridgewater, Courtland Sutton, Devonte Williams, Laviska Shenault
Denver is a pretty decent road favorite (minus-6 points) in Florida this weekend, and the Jaguars defense – or lack thereof – is a big reason why. It’s a nice way to start the season for Denver and could be a nice tournament stack for you. Bridgewater was very good in Week 1, completing 78 percent of his throws, two for TDs and no mistakes. He’s actually cheaper than Taylor on DraftKings, though also priced fairly on the other sites. Tim Patrick made the headlines in Week 1, but I like Sutton as the contrarian receiver play. Yes, he’s someone I’ve advocated for before, and his too-high salary is going to turn most people off him this week after a one-catch game. I think the script is going to be quite different this week, making him a sneaky play. A similar logic applies to Williams. He had a nice share of the running back touches, but wasn’t as effective (or lucky) as Melvin Gordon. This is a clear split and I’d like to be early on Williams’ breakout game. Given the state of the Jags defense, it could be as soon as Sunday. To complete a correlated game stack, and stay on the low end of roster percentages, I’m targeting Shenault. He was not as good as Marvin Jones Jr. or D.J. Chark vs. Houston, but he’s cheap, he’s a gadget player, and catching 7-of-9 passes in Week 1 is no shame. He’s the kind of player with a wide range of outcomes that could swing a tournament lineup.
Mini-Stack of the week:
Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf vs. Tennessee
You could totally go full game stack or Seahawks stack with this one, as the game total is 54.5 points and Seattle is a decent home favorite at minus-5.5 points. If you’re just looking for a mini-stack, Wilson is a great QB to target. He threw only 23 times in an easy Week 1 win over Indianapolis, including four passing touchdowns, and is significantly cheaper than the top option(s) on DraftKings and Yahoo this week. Tyler Lockett stole the show in Week 1, with two scores, but he and Metcalf both caught four of five targets in the game, Metcalf ending with one score. Note that on FanDuel Metcalf ($7000) is now cheaper than Lockett. If you love Lockett and/or need to save a little on the other sites, I have no issue with subbing him in here. I just want a piece of this offense against this defense.
