This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
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Safe Stacks:
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco: Dak Prescott, Cedrick Wilson, CeeDee Lamb, George Kittle
For cash games, the Cowboys are my favorite stack. You can do it affordably, and it’s really easy to modify to create more or less risk and salary cap space. Prescott is a no-brainer at home in a matchup that favors the pass over the run. He finished the season really strong and with a healthy surrounding cast, I see it continuing, making Dallas one of the most interesting teams to watch this week. I love Wilson as a salary saver and apparently Prescott and the Cowboys love him when it counts. He’s caught 11 of 12 targets for three touchdowns in the last two games. His role should remain greater than his salary would suggest, creating some nice value. Lamb is definitely due for a big game. It feels like the Cowboys have been able to secure the wins without highlighting him, but I’m guessing he has some highlight plays for the playoffs. His salary has come down significantly from its peak, making him, too, an affordable piece of the puzzle. This game has the highest point total of the extended weekend, an over/under that has risen to 51 points. The fact that the Cowboys are only favored by three points is significant. San Francisco keeping this game close increases fantasy value for both sides. I love Kittle to be the top receiver for the 49ers, but it may be wishful thinking because Deebo Samuel is hard to fit into a solid lineup. Kittle hasn’t had a great stretch to finish the regular season, but Dallas is a Top 12 TE matchup. Whichever SF player you can afford rounds out this solid cash game stack.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Najee Harris
Who doesn’t love the Chiefs in the playoffs? Anyone budget-conscious, for starters…because you’ll be left with some questionable choices if you go full KC stack. Still, they are huge favorites, and the Steelers are overall an average defense. You’d like to target a running back against them based on DvP, but that position is up in the air for the Chiefs this weekend, and isn’t their primary game plan. With the pass game working so well through Kelce, and Hill getting in a full practice yesterday, I don’t think it’s crazy to pad your lineup core with the three stars. Hill is coming off a rough stretch, and his salary is as low as it gets. I laughed to see him and Hunter Renfrow both $24 on Yahoo for the six-game slate (no offense to Renfrow’s strong recent performances). Adding Harris to the stack makes sense as RB is the toughest position to fill this weekend. If the Steelers don’t rely on the star rookie this week they have zero chance to keep the game close. That assumes he really is just taking it easy on the elbow to start the week and will play without limitation Sunday night.
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Contrarian Stack:
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Darren Waller
Since the Bengals basically didn’t play last week, there might be slightly lower rostership than would otherwise be the case. Burrow and Co. should be fully healthy and ready to take on the best matchup of the playoffs. Las Vegas allows the seventh-most points per game, with notably great DvP to running backs. Going all in on the Bengals in what should be a high scoring game won’t be everyone’s preferred strategy, though I think Mixon will be pretty highly rostered. He scored twice with 123 rushing yards in the first meeting. Chase has had more good games than bad, but the lows were crushingly low. His salary might turn some people off given his mediocre line the first time Cincy played against the Raiders, but I really like the kind of tournament lineup you can build around this core. I know Zay Jones and Hunter Renfrow have been carrying the load in the Raiders’ pass game, but that’s exactly why I’m looking at the cheaper Waller. Waller should be a bit overlooked given the other tight ends that are available on this slate, and he had one of his best games of his poor season vs. Cincinnati (7-of-8 for 116 yards).
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Cameron Brate, Ke’Shawn Vaughn
We’re not going full Eagles, because that’s too contrarian given that the Bucs are 8.5-point home favorites. But this game offers some interesting combinations and possibilities for GPP lineups. I like Hurts’ low salary, the fact that he has taken time to get his ankle right, and his poor passing numbers vs. the Bucs earlier in the season. I suspect he’ll be one of the less popular QB options on the big slate. He saved his fantasy line in the first meeting with Tampa with two rushing touchdowns, something I’m always hoping for, but not counting on, when rostering Hurts. Smith has been very touchdown dependent for fantasy value given Hurts’ low-volume pass attack, but his big games have been there. This combo is great for multi-entry tournaments – don’t bet your whole DFS investment on them, but they have the chance to pay off even small (low exposure) investments in a big way. You could go a bit safer and save at TE with Dallas Goedert, who is in line for a big target share in pass-heavy game environments. As I noted in the bargain article this week, Brate is the (by far) cheaper Bucs TE option and Philadelphia is the league’s best TE matchup for fantasy. Brate has been a red-zone target hog for his team and compared with league-wide rates. He has nine more red zone targets than Gronkowski, and for the price, given the WR shortage Tampa is dealing with, could be in line for a couple more this week. It’s a low-risk play that could easily reach value. Generally, you want to roster running backs against the Eagles, as their WR/pass defense is one of the stoutest. The Bucs are hurting at the position and it seems more and more likely that they’ll be starting Vaughn again this week, with Ronald Jones listed as doubtful and Le’Veon Bell still playing a relief role. Vaughn has only seen between 8-12 touches per game in the last three games, but he’s been over 12 PPR fantasy points in two of them. He’s by no means a safe play, but his salary does open up some interesting options to place around this core tournament lineup stack.
Mini-Stack of the week:
The Bucs are big favorites at home and although Mike Evans is tempting, the primary partner for Brady has to be Gronk in this matchup. The Eagles are the league’s best TE matchup, as noted above, and Gronk should be good to go for the playoffs. Brady’s first game against the Eagles wasn’t one of his best, but nor was it one of the worst. The implied team total, along with his incredible season, suggests Brady should be a safe play with upside this weekend. Gronk missed that first Eagles game, but Evans was held to two catches for 22 yards.
Damien Harris and New England D/ST
Possibly a lower-rostered duo, I love what Harris has been able to do vs. Buffalo in their two meetings this season. The weather is going to make things tough on Mac Jones and the passing game, and the Buffalo defense itself is one I’m strongly considering. But weather is going to effect the Bills to the same extent and New England ranks pretty much right behind or equal to Buffalo in all the major stats except price. Even though Harris’ salary is up there, you can get the Pats pairing a little cheaper than the Bills pairing (Devin Singletary and Bills D/ST), which matters if you’re trying to roster one or more super stars this weekend.
