In this weekly article, we’ll use the early betting lines from Vegas to take a deeper look at which games to target and avoid for NFL DFS. Implied team totals have positive correlations with fantasy output, especially for quarterbacks. Plus, we’ll highlight some potentially under the radar teams with high implied team totals despite a lower over/under. Note that these lines will probably change over the course of the week, which is why we call it ‘starting’ points.
Target:
Cleveland at Kansas City, Total 53
Chiefs minus-6
Despite the fact that both teams are projected to have Top 10 defensive units, Vegas is trusting the offenses in this one. If we look at how these teams performed in the 2020 season, we see that the Chiefs are most generous to opposing running backs, while the Browns allowed a lot of fantasy points to opposing QBs and WRs. So this matchup completely plays to the opponent strengths, making it a potential fantasy delight. Of course, the players in question won’t come cheap, but you can still make this game a centerpiece of your Week 1 lineups, no problem (check out the DFS Bargain column on Wednesday).
With the Chiefs also being one of the bigger favorites for opening weekend, we should prioritize Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. I have no issue with going all in here, but you could also choose to lock in Kelce with Mahomes and enable the rest of your lineup a bit of an upgrade too. While Mecole Hardman has been a popular best ball and late round target in season-long leagues, he hasn’t earned my trust for a cash game lineup yet. He’s also not that cheap…
If we love the Chiefs passing game to take advantage of Cleveland’s weakness defensively, we should absolutely target Nick Chubb vs. the Kansas City unit that allowed about 22 half-PPR fantasy points per game to running backs last year. Chubb is priced as somewhere between the fifth- and seventh-most expensive back this week, which is steep. However, considering his big play ability and the high scoring expectation of this game, I think it’s justified. He could easily finish as the best fantasy back of Week 1.
Another way to play this one, if you’re looking to get exposure to the high score without investing in the obvious stars, is to slot in a cheaper fringe player or two in GPP lineups. You could consider Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Baker Mayfield, Kareem Hunt, or Jarvis Landry. Any of them could return excellent value, but come with more risk than the core above.
Arizona at Tennessee, Total 52
Titans minus-3
The Titans enjoy home field advantage here, but the fantasy edge definitely goes to the Cardinals, in my estimation. Kyler Murray should be one of the best QB plays of the slate, and given the discount you get on him relative to Mahomes, could be a sneaky way to save some salary cap (especially on Yahoo). Murray was the second-best QB last season, after Josh Allen, with 11 rushing touchdowns and a 67.2 completion percentage. Adding to the draw of the Cardinals, Tennessee is projected to once again have one of the league’s worst defenses. Last season they ranked among the Top 5 in DvP to QB and WR, seventh to RB, and sixth to TE. The fact that we haven’t seen or heard a lot from DeAndre Hopkins could make him a super sneaky Top Tier WR this week. With his “Q-undisclosed” tag, people may simply look to Hill or Davante Adams for high end WR production, but Hopkins would surprise no one by finishing as the WR1 in Tennessee. The super, super sneaky WR play here isn’t even hot rookie Rondale Moore, but A.J. Green ($5400 FD, $3800 DK, $13 Yahoo). It’s hard to say anything bad about Green when he’s healthy, and so far he looks good for Week 1. He’s not a player I’d want in season-long formats, but I love him Week 1 in DFS.
Both Arizona running backs are usable in GPPs this week, but generally I think you can do better -- at least until we have a much clearer idea on the workload split between Chase Edmonds and James Conner.
As for the Titans, I could see the fantasy production being really diluted between Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. You could consider a Ryan Tannehill-Henry mini-stack to capture all the obvious scoring, or use the pricey WRs as solo or game stack options in tournaments. Just because the Cardinals don’t have the great on paper DvP numbers for DFS, they have allowed plenty of big games to opponents. The Arizona defense is expected to be fairly average once again, which brings us back to the nice team total for Tennessee.
Green Bay at New Orleans, Total 50
Packers minus-3
I think this game highlights the caution with which bettors are approaching Week 1. In years past, sure, this is a close game and the Saints are probably narrow favorites. But we are in for a very different Saints experience this year, and I for one, am taking the Packers every time. Aaron Rodgers and Adams should both be popular plays, and if history is any indication, you’d be taking unnecessary risk rostering any of the secondary receivers. Aaron Jones could be in for a nice day, and might go under-rostered this week. The Saints have had a great run defense in recent history, but experienced some turnover this off-season, opening up the possibility that they won’t be quite so dominant in that department.
Alvin Kamara is probably my favorite RB play this weekend given that I don’t think the price difference between he and Christian McCaffrey will match the fantasy output. In other words, you can likely get the same production for less with Kamara. Given the competitive nature of the game and lack of stifling defense on either side (in fact the Packers were one of the best RB matchups last year), Jameis Winston and Marquez Calloway enter GPP consideration. Look for more on Calloway in tomorrow’s bargain article.
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Avoid:
Denver at New York Giants, Total 42
Broncos minus-2.5
I hate to avoid any teams in Week 1, when optimism is everywhere (except Detroit and Houston), but this game does have the lowest point total of the week. The correlation between implied team total and QB fantasy points is a strong one, so rostering either of Teddy Bridgewater or Daniel Jones is a risky proposition. The Giants’ receivers aren’t healthy, with TE Evan Engram unlikely to play this week and both Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton questionable. The lack of clarity on Saquon Barkley has me fading him for Week 1, which doesn’t leave a lot of options from the Giants’ fantasy side.
The Broncos are a team I liked to roster in season-long and best ball this summer, with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant being regular targets of mine. Both are priced nicely this week, with Jerry Jeudy also a possibility. The Giants’ D/ST should be average again this year, so if the Broncos find some chemistry on the field, I could see any or all of these three pass-catchers get in the end zone. Running duties look to be a split I don’t want any part of this week. The best play is the Broncos’ D/ST ($13 Yahoo, $4100 FD, $3300 DK).
Miami at New England, Total 43
Patriots minus-3
Both of these young teams should be fun to get a look at this weekend. Tua Tagovailoa could definitely take a step forward, and Mac Jones already looks like he’s been doing this forever. The nice thing about this game is that everyone’s cheap, but don’t take the low total here too lightly. It’s easy (for me at least) to get really enthusiastic about cheap new players in DFS, but that can lead to sad regrets with Sunday’s hindsight. Both defenses are really good, and there are tons of questions at the skill positions. If you’re dead set on targeting this game, Damien Harris, Davante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, and Myles Gaskin would be my top options. The pricing on D/STs varies a ton between sites, but I think either of these units works given that young teams make mistakes aplenty.
Consider:
Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh, Total 48.5
Bills minus-6.5
Coming off a season in which they ranked second in both points per game and yards per game, the Bills are poised to pick up right where they left off. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have a terrific connection that we’re likely to see often this Sunday in Buffalo. Pittsburgh’s defense is no slouch, but they are far from the famed Iron Curtain especially after losing some key elements in the offseason. Allen is priced as QB3-5 across the sites, which is more than fair given his dominance at the position last year (he outscored every other fantasy QB by 15 fantasy points or more, depending on scoring bonuses). I’m staying away from the Bills running backs and other receiving options until we see how snaps and touches play out.
San Francisco at Detroit, Total 45.5
49ers minus-7.5
There are so many exciting, good options this week that it’s very possible Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. go under-rostered and overlooked. Certainly there’s a bias toward groaning that Trey Lance wasn’t named the starting QB, but healthy Garoppolo is a capable player. Our NFL DFS Optimizer has him as the best fantasy point per dollar player on the slate on DraftKings, and he’s second or third on FanDuel and Yahoo. He has plenty of talented receiving options in George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel. My top choices are Samuel and Kittle, given Aiyuk’s recent hamstring strain may have him somewhat more limited than the other two.
We haven’t even mentioned yet how bad Detroit’s defense was, is, and will be this season. One of the best fantasy opportunities all last year, they are again projected to be one of the league’s worst (along with Houston). Those who like to live on the edge or multi-enter can have some fun with the 49ers’ backfield as well. This is a team that loves to run the ball and will give chances to both Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon. As with the passing game, the Lions were the most generous rushing defense last season for fantasy, so both backs should have their way come Sunday. If the split is even close to equal, Sermon is the bargain play between the two given his salary discount.
