There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the New York Jets. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’t want to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So, in Week 11 I’m fading:
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay
I’m going back to Drew Brees and Michael Thomas, expecting Brees to get back on track in another phenomenal passing matchup, and I like Jared Cook a whole lot too, but there my Saints love ends. The Bucs have been the best run defense in the league when it comes to fantasy points allowed, and somehow have allowed the second-most to QBs and most to WRs, while allowing the most points per game to their opponents. I’m also just down on the time share here. Both backs are capable of huge things (in better situations at least) alone, but they detract too much from each other when both are healthy, especially when salaries are taken into consideration.
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Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver
A lot of people expected Diggs to explode when Adam Thielen went out, but just the opposite happened. He’s been worse without Thielen than with him lately, totaling just 10 PPR fantasy points the last two weeks. Expect Denver to blanket Diggs with Thielen out again, and there is no reason the Vikings wouldn’t stick to a run game with Dalvin Cook that is working like a charm.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions vs. Dallas
Matthew Stafford was finally ruled out again this week, and I can’t help but say that his back injury is just a shame given the season he was having. Jeff Driskel wasn’t a total disaster against the Bears, and neither was Golladay, for that matter. I’m fading him relative to others, more than out of any real dislike of his talent or opportunity this week. However, I don’t think Driskel will get to attempt 40-plus passes against the good defense and better offense of Dallas this weekend (I see a big time of possession skew in Dallas’ favor). Golladay will probably end up with 10-15 fantasy points, which just isn’t a lot for the price. [[ad:athena]]
Christian Kirk and Kenyon Drake, Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco
I was so high on Kirk last week, and he so came through, but this is a very different scenario. The 49ers are simply brutal against the pass (and the run), allowing the second-fewest points per game and they rank in the bottom four in fantasy points allowed to every position. Drake had his breakout game in his debut with Arizona against San Francisco two weeks ago, but please do not expect a repeat in SF this week. He was as bad as expected in Week 10 vs. another tough matchup (the Bucs), and David Johnson is back in the mix. There are definitely alternative options in both these guys’ salary range.
Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona
This might just be me, but I don’t like the unpredictability of the 49ers backfield, even when there are only two backs. The Niners are clearly committed to a committee, which means we can expect 5-10 carries for Raheem Mostert this weekend. Making matters worse for Coleman, this is a defense that you want to throw on. I’m rostering the passing and receiving components of this offense, not the backs.
In Week 11, players with high expected ownership are Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Josh Jacobs, Brian Hill, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin or Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, Jared Cook, Mark Andrews, and Bills D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.
