In this weekly article, we’ll use the early betting lines from Vegas to take a deeper look at which games to target and avoid for NFL DFS. Implied team totals have positive correlations with fantasy output, especially for quarterbacks. Plus, we’ll highlight some potentially under the radar teams with high implied team totals despite a lower over/under. Note that these lines will probably change over the course of the week, which is why we call it ‘starting’ points. This weekly article focuses on the Sunday main slate of NFL games.
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Target:
Seattle at LA Rams, Total 47
Rams minus-7
The Rams are coming off an impressive win over the Cardinals Monday night. They’re on a shorter than normal turnaround this week, but still big favorites over the Seahawks, who are coming off two nice wins themselves. Seattle offers a couple of positional matchups to take advantage of, including for Darrell Henderson and Tyler Higbee, who are both questionable (COVID) at this earlier stage of preparations. I figure both will be eligible to play Sunday, but Henderson would be the bigger priority. Having missed the last two games, he should be eager and able to take advantage of a Seattle defense that has toughened up, but still allows the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. Matthew Stafford and his receivers are also very much in play. Stafford is one of a few QBs this weekend with an implied team total around 27 points, a very positive indicator for his fantasy production. His price is high, but fair. Cooper Kupp is the most expensive WR, as usual, and he too, is fair there. Coming off a 13-catch game against Arizona, you have to go back to October to find a game where Kupp had fewer than 10 targets.
Meanwhile, if you’re looking to save and still get a piece of the Rams’ offense, Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson have scored in three games straight. In last night’s game, OBJ had 10 targets, while Jefferson had only three after games with eight and nine. I view all three Rams receivers as worthy of a roster spot this week and will probably end up hedging in different tournament lineups. The Seahawks, like the Rams, had a little mid-season swoon where they barely scored around 12 fantasy points per game, but in the last two they’ve been over 30 points per game. Russell Wilson has been pretty good, with four touchdowns and one pick in those games, but he’s also fumbled twice, losing neither. He’s cheaper than Stafford and this projects to be a pass-friendly game script for Seattle. Tyler Lockett has been his go-to guy, so while I keep waiting for DK Metcalf to break out, his salary just keeps falling. To be fair, Metcalf has had eight targets in four of the last five games, he’s just not scoring or breaking the big plays like Lockett is. Rashad Penny made the most of his opportunity in Week 14, rushing for 126 yards and two touchdowns. He won’t have it nearly so easy against the Rams as he did vs. Houston, but he’s certainly a name to keep on the bargain radar this week.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh, Total 41.5
Titans minus-2
This game might come as a bit of a surprise given the very low total. However, there aren’t many games I’m targeting solely for the high point total in Week 15. They just don’t exist. Here at least we have some bad defense to take advantage of! The Titans give up the seventh-most fantasy points to QB and second-most to WRs. While I’m never a big fan of rostering Big Ben Roethlisberger anymore, I will make a point to get him in a GPP lineup or two this weekend. He had three wide receivers over 65 yards last week, combining for 17 catches on 25 targets, which isn’t too bad. Any of Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson or James Washington could be paired with Ben in a tournament stack. Although the Titans’ run defense has not been particularly fantasy-friendly on paper, that has a lot to do with whom they’ve played and when. The schedule has been pretty easy on them. Najee Harris might therefore fly a little bit under the radar. The appearance of a bad matchup along with his high salary could mean low roster percentages on all sites. Take advantage!
Although the over/under is low here, and the Steelers have a good defensive line (tied for the second-most sacks per game), they still give up the ninth-most overall fantasy points per game. They are weak in the secondary, making guys like Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine intriguing, and they allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. I preferred D’Onta Foreman to Dontrell Hilliard last week, partly due to price, partly due to usage and that worked out well. Foreman is now the pricier of the two backs, but still very affordable.
Editor’s Note: Looking for an added edge? Dominate all season long with our DFS Toolkit. Use our Lineup Optimizer to come up with winning lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! Click here for more!
Avoid:
Houston at Jacksonville, Total 41
Jaguars minus-3
The low point total, the utter lack of offense shown by either team, absence of star skill players…there is nothing to like about this game. Except, perhaps, the bad defenses. Vegas thinks bad offense wins out, with Houston being the lowest, and Jacksonville the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL. Both are in the bottom six defensively, allowing at least 26 points per game. I love a good positional matchup and fantasy-friendly defense, but only when I have a skill player in mind that can take advantage. James Robinson and Brandin Cooks are the closest we get with this one, and I just feel like you can do much, much better.
Consider:
Arizona at Detroit, Total 48
Cardinals minus-14
The Cardinals had an admirable try coming back against the Rams Monday night, falling just short at the last minute. Vegas is certainly expecting them to take out some frustration on the hapless Lions this Sunday. The Cardinals have the highest implied team total of the slate (around 30 points), and Kyler Murray looked to be back in perfect shape. He passed for 383 yards and rushed for 61, mostly scrambles. He didn’t score through the air or on the ground, so it wasn’t one of his best fantasy efforts, but he looked like his old self. Against Detroit, he’s my favorite Cardinals play, because they can be beat on the ground or through the air. James Conner may finally take a breather and let Murray rush one in from close. Speaking of Conner, his salary is finally showing all his TDs some respect. He’s the second or third-most expensive back on Yahoo and FanDuel, but still only $6800 on DraftKings. Detroit has been the second-best fantasy matchup for running backs this season, so on that site, he nears must-play consideration. A.J. Green was the most effective receiver Monday night, but DeAndre Hopkins was most-targeted (12). I’m preferring the mini-stack of Murray and Conner to any of the Cardinals WRs right now, but can understand the wish to rotate them in multi-entry tournament lineups.
Buffalo vs. Carolina, Total 43.5
Bills minus-10.5
Assuming Josh Allen is fine (ankle), he should be a popular option this weekend too. The Bills have an implied team total of around 27 points, and Allen is coming off a stellar game against Tampa Bay, which they unfortunately lost in overtime. He rushed for over 100 yards, while the official running backs combined for a mere seven attempts. Devin Singletary was somewhat involved in the passing game with six catches on seven targets, but that was unusual for him. I’m fine with a solo Allen here, or a riskier stack with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis or Dawson Knox. Gabriel Davis has been getting a lot of end zone looks, including three in Week 14, one of which was caught for a touchdown. Diggs is the star; anything can happen with him but you’re paying for the ceiling, and Knox has evolved into one of the steadiest tight ends out there when healthy. The Bills’ D/ST is usable here as well. They obviously rank very well in points allowed and takeaways, and Carolina turns the ball over a lot (T-3rd).
Dallas at NY Giants, Total 45
Cowboys minus-10.5
This is another spot for a defense, given the large spread and Giants’ inability to score much. The Giants score the sixth-fewest points per game, and their implied team total this week is down there with the Lions, Panthers, and Jets (around 17 points). Dallas is usually better at home, but this season they’re about the same and coming off two really strong performances on the road in New Orleans and Washington. Earlier in the season, they put up 11 fantasy points vs. New York. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper all make for strong plays, but don’t forget about Michael Gallup. His targets are still very much in the range of the more expensive receivers and his hands and sideline toes are hard to beat. I’m fine with using any of them this week in this matchup. The Giants are also a generous run defense, though the 50/50 split between Ezekiel Elliott and other (Corey Clement or Tony Pollard) is too frustrating for me to really buy into. If Pollard were definitely out again in Week 15, I’d take a cheap shot with Clement in a GPP lineup, but Elliott is too expensive to risk the game being out of hand and him resting in the second half. As of now, it seems more likely that Pollard will play and that no Cowboys backs will be in my lineups.
