When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
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Players I’m fading for Week 2 include:
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami
I’m sorry to headline the article with Allen, because I do not think he’s a terrible play. I just think he’s not as optimal as a few other QBs this week, and his salary is up there. Our DFS Optimizer has him as the 22nd best QB value in fantasy points per dollar on Yahoo despite projecting him for about 23 fantasy points in Miami. The outlook is far better on DraftKings and FanDuel, so you might make some site-specific decisions with Allen. My overarching reason to fade Allen is that if I spend up on a QB this week, it’s Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson, maybe Jalen Hurts or Tom Brady. I’m afraid this game is among the lower scoring of the main slate, and was concerned with Allen’s two fumbles (one lost) against Pittsburgh. Also, although he threw the ball 51 times, he failed to reach that 300-yard bench mark I expect from players of his caliber. Overall, Allen profiles as more of a tournament-only play this week unless you are supremely confident in the value you can get around him given his salary.
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers vs. Dallas
This is a game I love for DFS, but I’m focusing on the passing aspects over the running backs. Normally, that statement would include Ekeler, but for some reason, he saw zero targets in Week 1. He’s still priced as the RB6-7 on DraftKings and Yahoo, RB10 on FanDuel (which seems more reasonable). Given that he’s sharing work with Larry Roundtree, the targets would have to be there for me to insert Ekeler into my cash game lineup this week. Cheaper alternatives include Joe Mixon, Chris Carson and Kareem Hunt.
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Corey Davis, NY Jets vs. New England
I loved Davis last weekend and he was for sure one of my bright spots. His salary has jumped and the Jets expect (hope?) to have Jamison Crowder back this weekend. With Keelan Cole also potentially returning, the receiving corps is less clear than it was in Week 1. The Patriots are typically laser focused on taking away the opponent’s best weapon, which certainly appears to be Davis at this point. Overall, I’m targeting similarly priced or cheaper receivers from games with more shoot-out potential.
San Francisco WRs vs. Philadelphia
With a similar line of reasoning to Davis, I’m not touching Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, or Trent Sherfield in Philadelphia. Samuel would be the top choice, but will Aiyuk emerge to take on a bigger role? Adding to my discomfort, Philly has a sound pass defense and the 49ers are playing at 1:00 on the East Coast, something they have struggled with in the past. George Kittle is your safest play here, and my top TE play on the main slate. Moreover, this is still a run-first team, so I’m targeting Elijah Mitchell as the best bargain in this game.
Houston RBs vs. Cleveland
The Houston backs were surprising in Week 1. Given how low our expectations were, perhaps it should be less surprising, but still, getting a reasonable fantasy return on investment from Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson is pretty impressive. That was against Jacksonville, which is probably the most important part of the equation. The Browns’ defense will be much trickier to run through, so beware of thinking you’ll get double-digit production from any of these guys at their temptingly low salaries. Our DFS Optimizer loves low salaried players in its fantasy point per dollar ranking, and for FanDuel and DraftKings, no Houston back makes it in the Top 30 (David Johnson is 11th on Yahoo).
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Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 2 include: Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, George Kittle, Browns D/ST, New England D/ST. You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs if you’re after a more unique lineup.
