This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Safe Stacks:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Austin Ekeler
The Chiefs are usually going to have one of the higher implied team totals of the week behind this impressive offensive skill group, meaning they are often going to be one of the most stackable teams in the league. Mahomes is the second-most expensive option after Kyler Murray this week, and as usually, Kelce is the most expensive tight end by a wide margin. Stacking the two of them works out more often than not, and I like it this week against a Chargers team that could keep the game close. Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have been moving the ball (Herbert has almost identical lines through the first two weeks, both in the 330-plus passing yard range). I feel like Kelce is more the sure thing for the Chiefs, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to find the end zone at some point; I love him in tournaments at his super-discounted DK and Yahoo salary. Tyreek Hill is also very much in play, but given that TE is a harder position to fill, I’m prioritizing Kelce this week. Those looking to get a piece of this game on the cheaper side should look to Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. Back to the cash game stack, I had a tough time choosing between my favorite Mike Williams and Ekeler, but Ekeler’s catching nine of nine targets in Week 2, in addition to the Chiefs’ susceptibility to the run, nudged him into my lineup. Allen is a super GPP play, as he, too, is bound to find the end zone at some point and is reaching value even without the scores.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf, Dalvin Cook, K.J. Osborn
Russell Wilson really has it good with Lockett and Metcalf. I love his price this week in what should be another high scoring and close game in the afternoon window. The Vikings have allowed great passing efforts to the Bengals and Cardinals, and there is no reason to think that Seattle will struggle to move the ball. It’s possible for you to fit both Lockett and Metcalf, but in the event you don’t want to punt the rest of your lineup, I prefer Lockett in cash games and Metcalf in tournaments. Chris Carson is the kind of player you can slot in if the salary works out but I’m not actively targeting him in either format. To round out the game stack, I’m looking at spending up for Cook (providing a clean bill of health on his ankle) and saving with Osborn. Osborn was featured in yesterday’s bargain article, where I noted he has as many or more targets and receiving yards than players priced thousands more than he is. Kirk Cousins clearly likes having three options. Through two weeks (small sample size alert), Seattle has given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Cook ranks fourth in the league in attempts with 10 additional targets. If healthy, he can do what Derrick Henry just did. Note that if Cook is limited or a no-go, I’m not as high on Alexander Mattison as the field will be. We can point to lots of examples where he could have/should have had a bell cow role and either wasn’t used that way or failed to take advantage.
Editor’s Note: Looking for an added edge? Dominate all season long with our DFS Toolkit. Use our Lineup Optimizer to come up with winning lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! Click here for more!
Contrarian Stacks:
LA Rams vs. Tampa Bay: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Chris Godwin
The Stafford-Goff trade seems to have worked out beyond anyone’s expectations on both sides. Stafford and Kupp look like they could be one of the all-time great duos as Kupp has scored three of Stafford’s five TDs and almost half of his 599 passing yards. They wouldn’t be contrarian if I didn’t think most of the field will be looking at Tom Brady and the Bucs as the dominant players in this game stack. Tampa Bay is leading the league in points scored, and Brady’s 655 passing yards and nine TDs are the reason why. Stafford isn’t cheaper by enough for most people to fade Brady here. However, the Rams’ defense has been pretty solid whereas the Bucs have been a fantasy goldmine (fifth in fantasy points allowed to opponents). Just don’t try to run on them. Adding Robert Woods to the Rams’ mini-stack basically makes sure you’re accounting for 90 percent of Stafford’s passes. He offers some welcome salary relief too. Godwin (second small sample size alert) has been fantastic against the Rams in his career. He has 19 catches on 24 targets which went for 225 receiving yards and three touchdowns. In his five years in the league, he’s only scored more against division rivals Atlanta and New Orleans, who he obviously plays a lot more games against. He’ll be more popular with the questionable status of Antonio Brown, but I still think he’ll be relatively low-rostered in large field tournaments with a ton of upside. After a big game last week and by virtue of being Mike Evans, he should attract more defensive attention from the Rams secondary.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore: Jared Goff, Quintez Cephus, Mark Andrews, Ty’Son Williams
Goff is tied with Derek Carr for the lead in passing attempts (93) through the first two games. I love a high-volume passer especially when he’s facing another pass-friendly game script. The Ravens are big favorites in Detroit this weekend, which should have a lot of people targeting Lamar Jackson. However, Goff has exceeded all expectations for what he might accomplish with this offense, from a fantasy perspective anyway, and is one of the cheapest QB options available. With five TDs so far, he’s been the eighth best QB in fantasy. Cephus is his clear favorite receiver, with 14 targets and two targets in the red zone, both of which went for touchdowns. If you wanted to be even more unique, you could consider Kalif Raymond, who has an impressive 83 percent catch rate, or Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is second in targets with nine. I love T.J. Hockenson, but am leaving him out of his tournament lineup in favor of Mark Andrews, who has arguable as much or more upside and certainly will enjoy a lower roster percentage. So far, Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown have out-targeted and out-produced Andrews, but Jackson will find ways to get him the ball, especially if the Lions can keep this game in hand. On the chance that they don’t, I also have Ty’Son Williams slotted in here. Williams has looked like the best Ravens’ back besides Jackson, and is still pretty affordable. If you know anything about fantasy football, you know the Lions are a team you can and should run on. Right now, they rank second in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but it shouldn’t be long before they re-take the No. 1 spot they held last year.
[[ad:athena]]
Mini-Stack of the week:
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins at Jacksonville
Some people are worried that this game won’t be competitive enough for a Cardinals’ stack to make sense, but Murray and Hopkins are the best chance to put them in that situation. Hopkins and Rondale Moore have each accounted for two of Murray’s seven TDs so far, though Hopkins has yet to exceed 100 receiving yards. I think that changes this weekend as the Jaguars have little hopes of stopping this offensive juggernaut. I’ve noted that I also love Chase Edmonds and even the very very cheap Maxx Williams this week, but if you limit yourself to just a small piece of this game, it’s got to be the superstars.
Author’s note: With Hopkins appearing to have a more serious rib injury that caused him to miss practice all week, I would pivot to Christian Kirk or Rondale Moore in cash games, A.J. Green in tournaments.
