In this weekly article, we’ll look at the cheaper options that should return good value to your NFL DFS lineups. The bargain threshold varies by site, and position, but generally we’ll aim for our bargain plays to take up about 8-10 percent of your salary cap, except for quarterbacks, which we’ll allow 11-12 percent. A great tool to find bargains is our DFS projection system, which gives a dollar per fantasy point projection for each player. I refer to it often!
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Quarterback
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington
Ryan is almost certainly a name that will be overlooked this week, but there are some positives about him besides his salary. He ranks 10th in passing attempts and 12th in completion percentage. He’s really lacking in the TD:INT department with only four passing touchdowns and three picks through three games. Atlanta has scored the fourth-fewest real points in the league so far while allowing the third-most. Fortunately for Ryan and the Falcons, Washington has given up the fourth-most points per game, with fantastic DvP for QBs, WRs, and TEs. We are anchored in our first impression of the Falcons from Week 1, which was truly a disaster, but Ryan has had two decent games since, and this will be his best chance at a breakout 3-TD, 300-yard game. Not for your cash game lineups, but I love a Falcons stack in GPPs this week. Note, our DFS Optimizer agrees: he is the best fantasy point per dollar projection at QB this week.
Also consider: Zach Wilson (breakout game?), Jacoby Brissett
Running Back
Devin Singletary and Zach Moss, Buffalo Bills vs. Houston
Moss will be popular this weekend and isn’t exactly a bargain after scoring three touchdowns in the last two games (the only two he’s played). That said, he’s cheaper than guys like Chase Edmonds and Chuba Hubbard (except on Yahoo). The Buffalo run game is an obvious play this week as the Bills are big favorites over the Texans. We saw Moss get most of the second-half action when the Bills were up big over Washington, but I’m not counting Singletary out. He’s a player that seems to have done frustratingly little with his opportunities, but a closer examination of the numbers reveals that might not be the case. He has out-carried Moss in the two games they’ve both played, and has the same number of targets. He is averaging 5.1 YPC (to Moss’ 4.1), but has only scored once. He’s also fumbled three times (but not lost any). If you can afford Moss, go for it, but if you really need a bottom-of-the-barrel bargain, try Singletary in your tournament lineups. Houston is one of the Top 10 run defenses to target for fantasy.
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle
Two facts combine to make Sermon a suitable bargain RB for all lineups this week. First is the 49ers desire and propensity to run the ball and second is what running backs have been doing to Seattle this season. They are the best RB matchup for fantasy as Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry and Alexander Mattison have had great production against them. Sermon wasn’t great in Week 3 vs. Green Bay, but wasn’t terrible either. If Elijah Mitchell is indeed out again, I expect Sermon to improve on his 3.1 YPC and earn more than 10 carries.
Also consider: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK), James Conner, J.D. McKissic
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis, NY Jets vs. Tennessee
I’m aware of how bad the Jets have been, first off. They’ve scored the fewest amount of points of any team in the league. I’m all over the Titans’ D/ST on Yahoo, where they’re only $13 given that Wilson averages five sacks per game and the Jets are tied for second in the league with turnovers (they are tied with the Titans, incidentally). BUT, Davis has been the best of them so far, and with the possibility of Jamison Crowder returning, I think Wilson will look much more to Davis than he did in Weeks 2-3, when Braxton Berrios saw a similar target share. Tennessee has been a great passing/receiving matchup for competent teams so far this season, which is why I listed Wilson as a breakout candidate above. In Davis’ case, he’s already had one fantasy-worthy game, and I doubt it’s his last of the season.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis
Although this game has a low total, the love Jacoby Brissett showed for Waddle in Week 3 puts him in consideration this week. Waddle caught 12 of 13 targets vs. the Raiders, appearing to earn the steady increase in opportunities he’s seen since the season began. In contrast to last season, the Colts’ defense has been notably weak this year, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. You might also consider Mike Gesicki who had a high volume in Week 3, but having been burned too many times by Gesicki, I’m preferring Waddle this week.
Also consider: Collin Johnson, Terrace Marshall, DeSean Jackson (another shootout game, he re-established his ceiling last week)
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Tight End
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City
Ertz is certainly not going to be a super-high upside tournament winning play (unless Dallas Goedert were to not play), but he is cheap enough that I don’t mind the time share. Jalen Hurts is attractive as a solo option in what should be a game where he can do a little bit of everything good, but it’s also going to require some creative game planning to overcome the Chiefs, even at home. Ertz and Goedert are eerily similar in every metric except price. He showed up in Week 3, and hopefully is building more rapport with Hurts as a reliable target when needed.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay
It’s a great week to pay for Travis Kelce and forget trying to figure out low-end TE opportunity, but if you want to be different from the masses, Freiermuth is another cheap name to consider. The Steelers have been the Najee Harris story so far, as expected, but with receivers Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster both questionable at this point, I would expect Ben Roethlisberger’s noodle arm to find Freiermuth again in Green Bay. He’s clearly passed Eric Ebron, and though the arm strength of Roethlisberger (and perhaps leg strength if you saw the clip where he falls down as he’s releasing a short pass) is a concern for any Steelers’ player, you aren’t risking much salary cap to see if he can repeat his touchdown grab from Week 3.
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Defense
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina
Many of us are looking at this game through an offensive lens, which is justified based on both teams’ scoring record thus far. If we think at all about defense, we might consider Carolina, who has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opponents while leading the league in sacks per game (4.7). But no, against Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott and company in Dallas? No way. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are not only cheap but actually very good when playing in the big home stadium. They lead the league in takeaways (eight), face a rookie running back in Hubbard, and just might not let Sam Darnold get away with his mistakes this week. If you’re not paying for Buffalo, the Cowboys are a pretty high-floor bargain option with upside this week.
Also consider: Tennessee Titans (Yahoo)
