In this weekly article, we’ll use the early betting lines from Vegas to take a deeper look at which games to target and avoid for NFL DFS. Implied team totals have positive correlations with fantasy output, especially for quarterbacks. Plus, we’ll highlight some potentially under the radar teams with high implied team totals despite a lower over/under. Note that these lines will probably change over the course of the week, which is why we call it ‘starting’ points.
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Target:
Kansas City at Philadelphia, Total 54.5
Chiefs minus-7.5
The spread has already moved a bit in the Chiefs favor in the wake of the Eagles’ sound defeat on Monday Night Football at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. This is still a big vote of confidence in Kansas City as one of the refrains I’m already tired of hearing is the “last place Chiefs”. Patrick Mahomes is once again a top QB option, second in the league in passing TDs (9) and sixth in passing yards. He’s thrown one touchdown apiece to five different wide receivers, and three to super-stud TE Travis Kelce. Tyreek Hill has slipped substantially from his Week 1 level, but only Yahoo is allowing his salary to droop accordingly. He is an ideal GPP play on that site but not my favorite way to spend on FanDuel or DraftKings. I was ready for a big Clyde Edwards-Helaire game last week and he came through. He notched 100 rushing yards, had the most attempts of the young season and caught a TD pass from Mahomes. His salary is still very fair across the industry. Given that the Eagles have been tough on opposing WRs this season, I’m leaning toward Mahomes, Edwards-Helaire, and Kelce.
The Eagles looked terrible last night, yet Jalen Hurts still put up 25 fantasy points Monday night (326 yards passing, 35 yards rushing, two TDs, two INTs). That makes three in a row with at least 21 fantasy points. If you want to target this game but can’t afford Mahomes, or want to differentiate, Hurts is a fine substitute. You’ll save a bundle on all three sites, but I like him best on DraftKings where he’s likely to hit the 300-plus bonus. The question is whether and whom to play with him. The Eagles have not prioritized the run game at all, so I am staying far away from both Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell for now. Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz have been used almost identically, with Goedert being more expensive than the numbers indicate he should be. Goedert has one more catch (8) on the same number of targets (11) with more receiving yards. Both TEs have caught TD passes from Hurts. Given similar usage and skill set, give me the cheaper guy every time. I think it’s a great week to roster Ertz. To sound like a broken record, not much distinguishes DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor either – same targets, catches, yards and a touchdown apiece – except price on DraftKings and FanDuel. Reagor is $1000 cheaper than Smith on DK, but Smith should not be ignored given his big play ability. For Philly, I’m rolling with Hurts, Ertz and Smith or Reagor (personal preference or salary considerations).
Arizona at LA Rams, Total 54.5
Rams minus-6
Arizona leads the league in points scored and ranks very high on the defensive side of the ball as well, being tied for second in takeaways and fourth in sacks. If nothing else, this line tells you just how good the Rams have been through three weeks as the third highest scoring offense and allowing just over 20 points per game to opponents. I’m probably looking most forward to watching a good portion of this game on Sunday afternoon, hoping it is just as high scoring and even closer than the current spread indicates. With the Rams favored by six points at home in this high scoring game, Matthew Stafford has to be considered one of the best value plays this week. He’s sixth- or seventh-most expensive but should be worth it once again. He’s averaging over 300 passing yards and three touchdowns per game with the second-highest QB rating in the league (behind Russell Wilson). He made the excellent Bucs defense look not-so-good in Week 3’s victory, relying heavily on Cooper Kupp for the third straight week. Kupp is finally priced where he should be after averaging 11 targets per game, 32 fantasy points per game and scoring five TDs so far. He’s my top WR play once again. If you’re looking to find a unique edge here, tournament regular DeSean Jackson made a splash in his Week 3 debut, catching three of five deep targets for 120 yards and a score vs. the Bucs.
Playing Arizona is like playing with fire this year. Everyone’s hot now and then but you’re likely to get burned. What a great spot for DeAndre Hopkins in Week 3’s matchup with Jacksonville…only to deliver a measly three catches for 21 yards. Christian Kirk reprised his Week 1 role with seven catches on eight targets for over 100 receiving yards, but none of the Cardinals’ receivers, including Chase Edmonds, caught a touchdown in this game. James Conner rushed for two, and Kyler Murray took the other himself, saving his fantasy day. It’s tempting to want to chase Conner’s cheap points, but do yourself a favor and don’t! The Rams aren’t the Jaguars and I believe Murray, Hopkins, and the receiving game will bounce back this week. Take a shot on a lower-rostered Rondale Moore, who has a great chance at paying off his low price (especially DraftKings and FanDuel), or Edmonds, who is still seeing a ton of targets.
Cleveland at Minnesota, Total 53
Browns minus-1.5
If there was a formula for a great Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. week, this might be it. The Browns being favored on the road is pretty huge against a Vikings team that has looked great so far. Mayfield and OBJ got right down to business in Week 3 with Jarvis Landry out, throwing nine passes his way (no other receiver got more than two). It’s an affordable pairing. The issue is that the Browns prefer the offense to go through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but the way the Vikings have been putting up points (they average over 29 points per game), the Browns won’t be able to leisurely run out the clock this week. I consider Chubb and Hunt to be great plays if the salary fits the rest of my build, but I’m not forcing either of them into lineups.
Kirk Cousins has looked like the best QB in the league more than once so far this year. With Adam Thielen catching all the touchdowns (almost), Justin Jefferson picking up where he left off with the highlight reel plays, and some hybrid K.J. Osborn/Tyler Conklin receiver picking up big yardage, he’s got it made. Oh, and between Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, they can run with anyone. It’s a fun team, but are there too many options here? I don’t see the Vikings running on Cleveland as effectively as they’d like; so far, the Browns are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. It’s too soon to tell whether Cook will return this week, but I’m not targeting this situation. I also won’t chase the Conklin points, preferring to go safe with Thielen and/or Jefferson. Cousins is averaging about 40 attempts per game, so there’s enough volume to go around to justify rostering both stars.
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Avoid:
Detroit at Chicago, Total 42.5
Bears minus-3
Give me the Lions here! Detroit almost (should have) beat the Ravens, put up 33 points on San Francisco and hung in there with Green Bay for a while. Chicago has scored the second-fewest points in the league while tying with the Jets for most sacks taken (five per game). Maybe Justin Fields will reward those tenacious players who go back to him given that it’s very possible to run effectively against Detroit (sixth-most fantasy points allowed) compared to the Browns, but my move is to forget about this game when building DFS lineups.
Indianapolis at Miami, Total 43
Dolphins minus-2
Equally ugly should be this snooze-fest in Florida. Miami has scored the third-fewest points in the league and the Colts are nearly as bad (18.6 points per game). I mean, neither defense is particularly scary, but nor are they the best matchups. If you consider one player from this game – tournament only – make it Jonathan Taylor. His salary has really come down, especially on DK and FD.
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Consider:
Buffalo vs. Houston, Total 48
Bills minus-16.5
Josh Allen put on an absolute show in Week 3, making me regret my last-minute swap of him and Dawson Knox for Jared Goff and T.J. Hockenson A LOT (crying emoji). This spread gives the Bills the highest implied team total of the week, a metric that has a super-strong correlation with QB fantasy points. Don’t fade Allen this week. In fact, Knox has a great on-paper matchup this week as the Texans have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs, but I’m looking at the red-hot Zach Moss, who out-carried Devin Singletary last week and caught a TD pass from Allen, or the disappointing Stefon Diggs. Diggs is still averaging double-digit targets, but has scored only once and caught only 59 percent of those targets. This feels like a great time to get him going, boost his confidence and for us, to take advantage of a slightly reduced salary. The Buffalo D/ST is costly, but also very much a priority spend this weekend.
