This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
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It’s a weird week for stacks. None of my ‘safe’ ideas feel like surefire safe, and none of my contrarian ideas feel that off the wall. So, use those labels with caution this week!
Safe Stacks:
LA Chargers vs. Cleveland: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Kareem Hunt
Herbert is one of 15 QBs to average at least 20 fantasy points per game this season. He’s done it with nine passing touchdowns and three interceptions while maintaining a QBR over 100. I’m going with the safer of the two Chargers’ wide receivers in Allen, who had 11 targets in Week 4. Mike Williams has been scoring the TDs, but Allen will get his eventually, hopefully this weekend. Ekeler is also a pretty safe play, though he’s expensive. He has a big enough role in the passing game that Cleveland’s stout run defense doesn’t scare me too much. No one expected it, but Hunt is the leading RB fantasy scorer for the Browns so far…and he’s done his scoring damage on the ground, not through the air as we expected. He does have 15 targets and is averaging over 5 YPC on the ground. I love this game script for him as this is expected to be close and fairly high scoring (over/under 47 points Thursday). To be more unique, you might buy into Odell Beckham Jr.’s statements that it’s only a matter of time before he and Baker Mayfield are on the same page.
Dallas Cowboys vs. NY Giants: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Dallas has one of the highest implied team totals of the slate and are the fourth-highest scoring team so far. The Giants rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, and fourth to TEs. I’m honestly not sure Schultz can maintain this scoring pace, but I’m putting my faith in him and his relatively low salary in a matchup where the Giants are vulnerable. I don’t know what it is about the Cowboys at home, but that new stadium really does seem to give an advantage. Elliott has been amazing at home the past two games, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in both games, including 143 yards against the Panthers, who had previously not allowed any team over 48 rushing yards. His salary is still very easy to fit on all three sites ($7000 on DK). As far as the passing game goes, Prescott has been one of the steadier options. He struggled on the road in LA in Week 2, but has bounced back nicely the past two weeks. My season-long fantasy teams are desperate for CeeDee Lamb to get back in the double-digits but given that he’s seen just eight total targets the last two weeks (many of which seem to have been redirected to Schultz) I’m not super-confident. In fact, both Lamb and Cooper have been really boom or bust, and Cooper logged just seven targets in the last two games. You could shrink this stack to just Prescott and Elliott, but as you’ll see below, I think the Giants will compete and allow for value in the Cowboys passing game. You could just take the cheaper Cowboys WR on each site.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, T.J. Hockenson
After three great weeks, Cousins came back down to Earth in Week 4 vs. the Browns. Maybe it was the ineffective backfield split evenly between Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison and the solid Browns’ secondary. That’s at least one problem he won’t have to face in Week 5. The Lions are known for being a great rushing matchup, and if we get clarity or assurance that Cook is back, I will totally take advantage of it, but they are just a good all-around matchup. Cousins should have more time and space to get the ball to his favorite playmakers, Jefferson and Thielen. There were three games before last week that both were valuable, double-digit half PPR fantasy point scorers. Kalif Raymond or Quintez Cephus may appear to be the safest Lions’ options for getting that opponent correlation into this stack, but Hockenson remains my most likely to succeed for Detroit. Two bad games after two good ones haven’t reduced his salary as much as one would have hoped, but with Cousins at QB, this stack isn’t breaking the bank.
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Contrarian Stack:
New Orleans Saints at Washington: Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, Curtis Samuel
On paper, this doesn’t seem like a particularly unique or risk/reward kind of stack, given that the Saints are big favorites on the road and Washington is the MOST generous team in overall fantasy points allowed. My guess, however, is the only highly owned play this weekend will be the Saints D/ST. Winston has been awful since Week 1, averaging 12 fantasy points per game in his last three. A visit to the Football Team, who has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any other team, should cure him. Part of the problem that a good matchup won’t solve is that he doesn’t have a lot of high-quality options to throw to. Deonte Harris leads the team with 15 targets – on the season. Juwan Johnson has three touchdowns on just 10 total targets this year. None of them are even worth a look in a large field tournament. Kamara has been rock solid outside of the Carolina shut-out so the only challenge with him is the price. I think he’ll be worth it. If you buy into that Washington will be down early in this game, it makes sense to complete this stack with Terry McLaurin or Samuel. McLaurin is the much safer option, but Samuel caught all four of his targets in his first week back and they are likely just being cautious with him coming off the groin injury. As long as his injury status is not a concern, his $3K salary on DraftKings is too good to pass on.
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Green Bay at Cincinnati: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Tyler Boyd, Ja’Marr Chase
You could also use Joe Burrow here. He and Rodgers average exactly 18.2 fantasy points per game. Burrow has one more passing TD, Rodgers has two fewer interceptions. Burrow is $1000 cheaper than Rodgers on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which might make him a more popular play. I also like Rodgers at home, where he has been infinitely better this season (25 fantasy points per game and six of his eight TDs have come in Green Bay). It’s hard to pay top dollar for Adams on a slate where Derrick Henry gets the Jaguars, but I’m doing it in this stack. He’s at his best in competitive, shoot-out style games, which this could very well be. When Rodgers needs to make a play, he’s looking for Adams. There are fantasy point correlations between QB and WR 1 and 2 of the opposing team, but you could argue Chase and Boyd are 1a and 1b. Boyd actually has more targets and catches than Chase, though Chase’s four touchdowns and greater depth of target give him the edge in yards and fantasy points. Both should be busy as the Bengals try to keep up with the Packers at home, though if you’re worried about Tee Higgins’ returning, you could always look to C.J. Uzomah instead of Boyd.
Mini-Stack of the week:
Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley
Jones is looking like one of the best bargains of the week despite how much I like the Cowboys as noted above. He’s currently QB6 in fantasy scoring, thanks to his rushing yards and TDs. The return of John Ross was great for everyone, including Ross himself, but also Jones, Kenny Golladay and Barkley given how he forces defenses to stretch. If you’re looking for a high-floor, high-upside mini-stack, I think you account for any and all scores the Giants make in Dallas with these two. Dallas has been a lenient defense, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to QB, and third-most to WR and TE, so if you were looking to expand, I like adding Ross, Golladay or Evan Engram to this weekend’s lineups as well.
