The dynamic game of DFS requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Milly Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
Lessons Learned
Precision
The most glaring omission from this roster was the Eagles-Lions game, which ended as a competitive 38-35 shootout. That brings up an interesting talking point – one that is difficult to understand for a lot of DFS players early in their careers – the topic of precision. Far too often we find that players are trying to cover too many bases with rosters in play. This general field tendency is rooted in human psychology and is a driving factor in the new-age and meme-worthy idea of FOMO, or the fear of missing out. The learning point here is that it is more important (and more profitable) to focus on concentrated aspects of how our rosters succeed as opposed to worrying about the pieces not present. For example, both the Eagles and Lions came into the season with non-concentrated offenses and less certainty surrounding how we could project their respective paths of attack. Instead, this winning roster chose to utilize an upside piece with more certainty in Justin Jefferson.
Value
The most common references to value speak of individual prices compared to individual ranges of outcomes on specific weeks. As in, “Rashod Bateman is underpriced for a matchup against the Jets.” While that statement is true on the surface, the undertones hint at only his expected range of outcomes for this specific week. The way I look at (and teach) value is to think about where a specific player is likely to be priced four to six weeks from now. Doing so minimizes the variance associated with a one-week sample size and provides the opportunity to be effectively playing with a higher salary cap than the rest of the field. The primary examples of this form of value from the winning roster were Saquon Barkley, Michael Pittman, and Travis Kelce, all of whom were highly likely to see their respective salaries jump $1,500-$2,000 over the coming weeks.
Defense
The defense position is typically an afterthought for most entries in GPP play but it is borderline impossible to win a GPP without one of the top two defenses in overall points on a given slate. Basically, you weren’t winning a large field GPP this week unless you had the Steelers defense or the Dolphins defense. As such, simply placing additional emphasis on defensive selection provides measurable boosts to expected value over the course of a full season (or more). The best way to do this is to think through how points are scored from defenses. The primary points contributors for defensive scoring are touchdowns, turnovers, and sacks, all of which are predominantly generated through pressure in the backfield. Pay attention to situations that could lead to additional pressure in the backfield moving forward!
Game Environments
This roster utilized a primary mini-stack of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce with no correlated bring-back (a player from the other team). Think about the story that tells of the specific game environment in question – the Chiefs will score a lot of points and the Cardinals won’t. Optimal practice for that game environment would have been to include the primary stack’s running back to account for more exposure to a blowout game script, which would have left this roster with Clyde Edwards-Helaire instead of Antonio Gibson, or an increase of 2.40 fantasy points.
Looking Ahead
Darrell Henderson (Value)
Henderson is likely the ultimate example of value, as described above, for Week 2. He paced the Rams backfield with a massive 82% snap rate in Week 1 and out-touched Cam Akers 18-3. His price for Week 2 is only $5,700 on DraftKings which represents one of the biggest value situations on the slate. Finally, his opponent for Week 2 (Falcons) just allowed Saints running backs to average 4.69 yards per carry last week after a season that saw them cede 26.0 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs. Henderson is likely to be priced $1,500-$2,000 more in the coming weeks should his usage hold moving forward.
Jeff Wilson (Value)
San Francisco lead back Elijah Mitchell left Week 1 with a knee injury and reportedly will be sidelined for two months. Jeff Wilson served as the 49ers’ lead back on three separate occasions last year, turning in snap shares of 59%, 88%, and 75% and running back opportunity counts (carries plus targets) of 13, 23, and 17 in those games. He is priced at only $5,100 for Week 2, which is likely to jump $1,000-$1,500 in the coming weeks with Mitchell out for an extended period.
Diontae Johnson (Value)
For whatever reason, pricing algorithms take ages to pay Diontae Johnson any respect. Johnson started 2021 with a floor price of $6,300, which is still $500 more than his Week 2 price of $5,800. All expected usage concerns went swiftly out the window after Johnson amassed 12 targets on 38 Mitchell Trubisky pass attempts, good for a whopping 31.6% target market share. What’s more, Najee Harris was forced from the Steelers’ Week 1 contest and appears likely to miss Week 2. Johnson’s price in 2021 got as high as $7,600, and it’s only a matter of time before we see it increase this year, assuming his elite usage remains intact.
Ja’Marr Chase / Tyler Boyd (Precision)
Chase saw a whopping 16 targets in Week 1 after fellow elite youngster Tee Higgins was forced from the contest with a concussion, while Tyler Boyd should maintain a relatively high snap rate as the slot wide receiver for an offense that led the league in 11-personnel usage in 2021 (three-wide receiver sets). Pay close attention to Higgins’ status as the week progresses as his absence would likely elevate each of these Bengals pass-catchers into elite territory for a Week 2 meeting with the Dak-less Cowboys.
Julio Jones / Russell Gage (Precision)
Chris Godwin left Tampa Bay’s Week 1 contest with a hamstring injury and did not return. Soft tissue injuries are common in players coming off ligament damage, meaning we’re likely to see Godwin miss Week 2. Should he be held out, and with Marshon Lattimore likely to shadow Mike Evans (as recent history would suggest), we’re likely to see a situation where Julio Jones and Russell Gage simultaneously see their respective snap rates increase while avoiding the primary focus of the Saints’ secondary.
Kyler Murray / James Conner / Marquise Brown (Game Environment and Precision)
The Raiders are currently instilled as five-point home favorites against the visiting Cardinals. We’re also likely to see a good deal of recency bias surrounding the effectiveness of Arizona’s offense after we saw this Cardinals team completely flop at home against the Chiefs. That said, the Cardinals are highly likely to maintain a concentrated offense for as long as DeAndre Hopkins remains out after Brown and Conner combined for a 35.3% team target market share in Week 1. Those two situations combine to provide a high upside and leveraged opportunity considering it is the only game currently with a game total north of 50.0 points on the main slate (51.5).
