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Welcome to the Friday Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.
At the end of the article I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used to write this article, what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.
Byes: Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Washington
Already Played: Jets, Colts
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Falcons at Saints, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Falcons Implied Team Total: 17.75
Matt Ryan is coming off a very poor outing. In Week 8 he ranked QB26 in EPA per play (which measures efficiency). Ryan maintained his accuracy, however, ranking eighth in completion percentage over expected. For the season, Ryan is a respectable 12th in EPA per play and 17th in CPOE. He’s been solid this year, but can clearly be stifled by difficult matchups like he was against the Panthers.
This week Ryan faces another difficult matchup. The Saints rank fifth in EPA allowed per dropback and seventh in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. The silver lining is that the Saints have trouble generating pressure, ranking 30th in PFF’s pass-rush grades.
Ryan was pressured on 39% of his dropbacks against the Panthers, the eighth highest rate of the week. And in his disastrous opener against the Eagles, he was pressured on 41% of his dropbacks, the 10th highest rate of Week 1. In Weeks 2-7, which was a much stronger stretch of play for Ryan, he was pressured on 33% of dropbacks, the 18th highest rate. Ryan isn’t likely to have a huge day against a good Saints defense, but he should be able to avoid another meltdown with more time to throw than last week.
With Calvin Ridley out of the lineup, Kyle Pitts is functionally Ryan’s top wide receiver. Pitts is having an incredible rookie season, but he may not be ready to be a WR1. In Week 8 Pitts ran a route on 97% of dropbacks but posted an extremely poor 0.43 yards per route run. Pitts was still targeted on a solid 20% of his routes in Week 8, but his yards per target cratered to 2.2. Pitts still has a strong 2.04 YPRR for the season and a strong 9.9 YPT. There’s no need to panic. But Pitts’ optimal situation for fantasy purposes is likely playing an efficient secondary role, rather than being the focal point of the passing attack. On the other hand, Pitts had a 14.2 average depth of target in Week 8, making him a true deep threat. That type of usage will come with dud weeks, regardless of who else is on the field. If Ryan has additional time to throw this week, Pitts could have a big bounce-back game as a deep-threat WR1 with tight end eligibility.
Behind Pitts, no Falcons wide receiver or tight end ran a route on 70%+ of dropbacks against the Panthers. Russell Gage, the presumed secondary option behind Pitts, wasn’t even targeted. For the receivers, it’s Pitts or nothing this week.
That of course assumes that Cordarrelle Patterson isn’t a receiver. Patterson has seen a major shift in his snaps since Week 5, and while Week 7’s 73% snap share may ultimately be his high water mark, it’s clear that he is going to be a much bigger part of the offense than he was in Weeks 1-4.
Patterson’s role increase hasn’t occurred as a running back, however. He hasn’t stopped playing running back, but he’s now playing a true hybrid position, with a major increase in receiver snaps since Week 5—particularly snaps out-wide.
This has allowed Patterson to become more fantasy-relevant without absolutely crushing the value of Mike Davis, but there’s definitely been an impact. Using Pro Football Focus’ expected points metric, Davis had an average workload of 15.6 expected points from Weeks 1-4. That has dropped to 10.1 expected points per game since Week 5. But Davis’ snap share has only fallen slightly from 67% to 63%. He’s a TD or bust option but gets enough snaps to make a TD realistic. Meanwhile, Patterson combines the profile of a satellite running back and a rotational receiver... he’s never going to be predictable, but the combination of the two roles comes with decent upside.
Saints Implied Team Total: 23.75
Jameis Winston‘s 2021 season is over after the quarterback suffered a torn ACL. It doesn’t quite feel like it because the Saints have been such a low volume passing offense, and because no Saints receivers have been fantasy relevant... but Winston was having a very good season. He ranked third in EPA per play against the Buccaneers, and he finishes his season ranked second in EPA per play.
Trevor Siemian has been announced as the starter this week. He was fairly decent in relief of Winston, finishing 16th in EPA per play, and 19th in CPOE. This was a major drop-off from Winston, but at least Siemian actually throws the ball. The alternative is Taysom Hill, who we’ve been told to expect to see as well this week. Hill’s snap share is unpredictable though, with the quarterback working back from a concussion.
Alvin Kamara is the only fantasy-relevant player in New Orleans this week. Hopefully Siemian plays true starter snaps and checks down to Kamara non-stop. If Hill plays significant snaps at quarterback... that’s a problem. Kamara averaged just 14.2 points in Hill’s four 2020 starts... Kamara averaged 29.2 points in his other 11 games.
In more bad news, Kamara saw a season-low 67% snap share with Mark Ingram back on the team in Week 8. Kamara now has the risk of reduced passing volume, with Hill taking at least some snaps at quarterback, and a decreased rushing role with Ingram in the fold. Kamara should still be locked into lineups, with upside for Siemian to pepper him with short targets.
One silver lining for Kamara: Atlanta is vulnerable on the ground, ranking 22nd in EPA allowed per rush. Teams have technically shifted to the run against the Falcons, although much of this effect is driven by the Panthers going ultra run-heavy against them with Sam Darnold concussed midway through the third quarter last week. But three of Atlanta’s six opponents prior to Week 8 shifted to the run against them as well.
Despite a 4% pass rate over expected against the Buccaneers last week, the Saints were a very run-heavy team with Winston at quarterback. The Saints have a -4% PROE for the season. Only the Titans, 49ers and Browns have been more tilted to the run this year. While hiding Siemian and running Hill, they’ll likely take this approach to another level, and could easily post a -10% PROE or lower.
On the rare occasions the Saints do pass, they should find success. The Falcons rank 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback, 25th in PFF’s coverage grades and are dead last in PFF’s pass-rush grades.
Unfortunately, with Marquez Callaway leading all Saints receivers with just a 71% route rate, only Kamara can be played this week.
Broncos at Cowboys, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Broncos Implied Team Total: 19.5
Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been terrible this season, but Denver remains limited with him under center. On Sunday, the Broncos became the second team all season to go run-heavy on Washington, with a -1% pass rate over expected.
Bridgewater ranks 17th in EPA per play and fifth in CPOE. He really hasn’t been bad with what he’s been asked to do. The problem is that the Broncos aren’t willing to rely on him to win games (which to be fair, I get). Denver ranks 22nd in situation neutral pass rate and is tied for 21st in pass rate over expected.
This week they face a Cowboys defense that is a clear pass funnel. Teams are averaging a 4% PROE against Dallas and shifting 2% to the pass against them. Although the Broncos just ignored a bigger pass funnel in Washington, the Cowboys should be able to push Denver to throw more than Taylor Heinicke did.
Interestingly, the Cowboys are actually stronger against the pass than the run. Dallas ranks fourth in EPA allowed per dropback, ninth in pass-rush grade and 13th in coverage grade; they rank 13th in EPA allowed per rush and 24th in run defense grade.
The Broncos would prefer to attack the Cowboys on the ground, and the defensive matchup should allow them to do so. But if Dak Prescott, who was not listed on the injury report, is close to full health, Denver will likely be forced out of their preferred run-heavy game script.
Jerry Jeudy made his return in Week 8 and ran a route on 77% of dropbacks. He was targeted on 17% of his routes and delivered a solid 1.70 YPRR. The main issue for Jeudy, along with the rest of the Broncos’ skill players, is that opportunities were heavily split in a low-volume offense. With just a 16% target share, Jeudy was in a four-way tie for first with Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Javonte Williams. Tim Patrick, Albert Okwuegbunam and Melvin Gordon all tied for fifth with 12%.
Jeudy has been targeted on 23% of his routes, which leads the team. So there’s some hope that he’ll break out from the pack in his second week back from injury. Targets could also be more condensed with Noah Fant (Covid) likely to miss this week.
Courtland Sutton has a 16.7 aDOT this year and is less dependent on pure target volume than Jeudy. He also has a strong 21% target rate for his deep threat usage. Jeudy’s first week back wasn’t a great sign for their ability to coexist though. Sutton was targeted on just 14% of his routes. But Jeudy will also prevent defenses from concentrating fully on Sutton, and Sutton can make his day on just a few plays given his deep aDOT.
Okwuegbunam is likely to have a route rate of 70%+ with Fant out. He has been targeted on 20% of his routes this season, which is just behind Fant’s 21% target rate. He’s a solid fill-in option, assuming Fant misses the game.
At running back, things remain split, with a lean toward Melvin Gordon. Gordon has a 55% snap share this season to 45% for Javonte Williams. And Gordon had 57% of snaps to Williams’ 43% in Week 8. I’ve repeatedly detailed how highly Williams ranks in various running back metrics, but it’s possible he’s a bit too boom/bust for the Broncos’ coaching staff.
Javonte Williams leads all running backs with at least 50 attempts in missed tackles forced per attempt (36%).
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 3, 2021
He ranks 10th in explosive-run rate (10 yards or more) at 14% and 7th in yards after contact per attempt (3.4).
Second-worst in stuff rate (0 yards or less) at 13%.
Boom/bust is what we want this week though. The Broncos are unlikely to be able to dictate script, which creates downside risk for a low-volume rushing game. But the Cowboys are fairly weak against the run, so we could see some big plays, particularly from Williams who ranks third in breakaway percentage.
Cowboys Implied Team Total: 29.5
Cooper Rush wasn’t terrible in his spot start, ranking 17th in EPA per play and 21st in CPOE. But Dak Prescott will return to the lineup this week and... obviously, will be a major upgrade for the offense. Prescott ranks 10th in EPA per play this season and third in CPOE.
He faces a weak Broncos pass defense in his return. Denver ranks 20th in EPA allowed per dropback, 23rd in pass-rush grade and 23rd in coverage grade. Teams have been balanced against them because they’re also poor against the run, ranking 26th in EPA allowed per rush.
As Pittsburgh showed in Week 5 with a -12% pass rate over expected, it’s possible to beat the Broncos with a very run-heavy approach. And the Cowboys were moving toward that approach even when Prescott was fully healthy.
Despite opening the season with a 22% pass rate over expected, the Cowboys are at just 1% for the season. They’ve had a -4% PROE or lower in four of Prescott’s six games. With Prescott in his first game back from injury, they look more likely than not to go run-heavy here.
I devoted far too many words last week on why Tony Pollard deserves more playing time. The Cowboys aren’t listening. Ezekiel Elliott saw a 75% snap share in Week 8, with Pollard at just 26%. This week, Elliott is set up about as well as an early-down chunk runner can be. Prescott should lead an efficient passing attack, but the Cowboys will likely want to limit his attempts, and the Broncos can be run on. Elliott looks like a strong RB1 play this week.
We’ll likely need efficiency from Cowboys receivers, which would seem to make CeeDee Lamb the most appealing option. Lamb has a 2.43 YPRR this season, whereas Amari Cooper has a 1.93 YPRR. But Lamb is running very hot with an 11.1 YPT and sprained his ankle in practice this week.
In terms of target profile, Lamb and Cooper are nearly identical. Cooper has seen a target on 21% of his routes, with Lamb at 22%. But Cooper is being targeted deeper downfield, with a 13.0 aDOT compared to 11.4 for Lamb. Given Lamb’s injury uncertainty, I prefer Cooper straight up this week.
At tight end, Dalton Schultz is also running hot with an 8.8 YPT for his shallow 6.3 aDOT. He still has valuable usage, with a target on 22% of his routes and a route run on at least 73% of dropbacks in four straight games. He remains a low-end TE1.
Patriots at Panthers, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Patriots Implied Team Total: 22.25
Mac Jones is continuing to put together a solid rookie season. Jones ranks 19th in EPA per play and 13th in CPOE. He’s not a particularly aggressive passer, ranking 21st in aDOT. But with an 8.0 average depth of throw, he’s tied with Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes. So it’s not like Jones is a true check-down artist in the mold of Jared Goff (6.6 aDOT).
Jones will face a difficult test this week, however, against a Panthers defense that just tripped up Matt Ryan for his second-worst outing of the season. The Panthers rank third in EPA allowed per dropback, 12th in pass-rush grade and eighth in coverage grade.
As a result, the Panthers are a slight run funnel. Opposing teams have a -1% PROE against them and teams are shifting 1% toward the run. The Panthers aren’t terrible against the run, ranking 16th in EPA allowed per rush, but it’s the path of least resistance.
The Patriots are a balanced offense, but they are very willing to play the matchup. They just posted a -6% pass rate over expected against the run funnel Chargers and were even more run-heavy (-13%) against the run funnel Texans in Week 5. Against the pass funnel Buccaneers, they had a 24% pass rate over expected—the second-highest PROE from any team this season. The Patriots are clearly willing to shift their approach for their opponent, which should be obvious... they’re coached by Bill Belichick.
Damien Harris is difficult to get excited about, as a two-down rusher who needs TDs to generate any upside. But the Patriots will likely attempt to lean on him here. Harris ranks RB26 with 12.8 expected points per game, but he can be relied on as an RB2 this week.
It’s hard to feel good about playing any Patriots receiver. That’s true every week, but especially in this tough matchup. Jakobi Meyers’ underlying usage remains strong though. He’s run a route on 94% of dropbacks this season. Nelson Agholor, the next highest, is at just 82%, and no other receiver is at 70%+. Meyers has a poor 1.45 YPRR, but that is largely due to a weak 6.5 YPT. He’s earned a target on 22% of his routes, a good rate for his 9.1 aDOT. Until we see Meyers’ inefficiency begin to impact his routes, the bet here is on positive YPT regression. Mac Jones is playing fairly well, so things should swing Meyers’ way eventually. Who knows... maybe he’ll finally even... actually, no, I’m not going to say it.
Panthers Implied Team Total: 18.75
Sam Darnold has yet to clear the concussion protocol. He has a chance to play Sunday, but his status is very much up in the air.
Darnold has struggled recently but wasn’t terrible in Week 8 before exiting, ranking ninth in EPA per play. Although, his accuracy was... quite bad. He finished 28th in CPOE, which won’t surprise you if you happened to see Robby Anderson‘s only target against the Falcons.
Backup QB P.J. Walker only has 35 plays outside of garbage time over the last two seasons, so it’s possible he’s good; we don’t actually know. But he ranks QB63 in EPA per play on his limited sample, so, likely, he is not. The Panthers can be expected to limit him as much as humanly possible if Darnold is out.
Luckily, New England has become a major run funnel. Only the Chargers, Cardinals, Raiders and Texans are bigger run funnels this season. Teams are averaging a -2% PROE against the Patriots and are shifting 3% toward the run against them. Darnold ranks 30th in EPA per play this season and 32nd in CPOE, yet having him under center is the team’s best-case scenario. It’s hard to imagine the Panthers being pass-heavy, and if Walker is at quarterback, they could go very run-heavy.
The Panthers may truly embrace the run if Christian McCaffrey is active this week. McCaffrey will likely see a more limited role than usual, but he will still be a high-end RB1 if he plays. If McCaffrey is out, Chuba Hubbard looks like a strong RB2. The rookie ranks RB14 in expected points since Week 4 and should see strong volume this week.
DJ Moore continues, despite it all, to have a very strong season. He has a 30% target share, a 40% air yard share, and is seventh in the NFL in WOPR (which combines target share and air yard share). He’s a true No. 1 wide receiver and has delivered a decent 8.2 YPT despite quarterback play that has been teetering on disastrous for weeks now. Darnold is likely better than Walker, so we’re rooting for his return... I guess.
We’ve reached the end of the line with Robby Anderson. He saw just one target last week—a 22-yard hospital ball. For the season, Anderson has a 0.69 YPRR, which is not nice. His target volume isn’t terrible, with an 18% target share and a 28% air yard share. If he was in a strong offense he’d look like a solid FLEX option. For example, A.J. Green has the exact same 18% target share and 28% air yard share. But the Panthers... are not the Cardinals.
Anderson will eventually see some positive regression. His 4.3 YPT is less than half of what we’d expect based on his 12.9 aDOT. It’s not crazy to chase that positive regression, but keep in mind that the upside here is probably capped at a good A.J. Green game.
Vikings at Ravens, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Vikings Implied Team Total: 22
Kirk Cousins is exactly where you’d expect him to be in efficiency: slightly below average. He ranks 18th in EPA per play. Cousins is also slightly above average in accuracy, ranking 15th in CPOE. It’s nice when the numbers line up so neatly with the experience of watching someone play.
The Vikings are also playing as expected, with a -2% PROE that ranks 25th on the season. They also rank 24th in PROE on 1st-and-10 and 21st in situation neutral pass rate.
Even though the Vikings are run-heavy, they’re willing to play at a normal pace. After finishing 26th in situation-neutral seconds per play in 2020, they’re up to 18th this year. They’re not super fast or anything, but they’re also not deliberately reducing play volume.
And this week, the Vikings may be forced out of their run-heavy comfort zone. As six-point underdogs, they shouldn’t be able to dictate script to Baltimore. And if the Ravens get their way, this game could shoot out. The Ravens, as we’ll get to, are suddenly into passing the ball, and their defense is weak against the pass.
Teams are averaging a 4% pass rate over expected against the Ravens, and teams are shifting 3% to the pass against them. Only the Buccaneers, Washington, and the Dolphins have been bigger pass funnels this year; and only Tampa Bay and Washington are creating a bigger shift to the pass. This makes intuitive sense because the Ravens are much better at defending the run than the pass. They rank third in EPA allowed per rush, but just 27th in EPA allowed per dropback.
With a matchup that dictates a passing script and an opposing offense that may force the issue, the Vikings will hopefully have a healthier passing game. I don’t mean literally healthy (although hopefully Justin Jefferson is good to go after being banged up in Week 8, and only running a route on 75% of dropbacks). Instead, I’m talking about the Vikings inability to challenge defenses deep this season.
Last season, Bisi Johnson mixed in as a deep threat, with a 13.5 aDOT. And Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson both had deep targets as a regular part of their profile, with aDOTs of 12.5 and 12.0. But this season, Thielen’s aDOT is down to 8.8, and Jefferson leads the team with an 11.8 aDOT.
Nothing has changed for Jefferson specifically, he’s still a clear top option with a nice mix of targets at different depths. But Thielen’s new role creates less upside for the offense as a whole, which makes it harder for Jefferson to have truly earth-shattering weeks. Although, because this game has upside to shoot out and because he’s Justin Jefferson, he remains an elite option.
Thielen’s new role has significantly decreased his fantasy upside. Last season, Thielen finished WR15 in expected points per game. This year he’s down to WR29. As Thielen showed in Week 1 and Week 6, he’s still capable of big weeks. But he has a middling 1.63 YPRR that is consistent with his target profile. If it wasn’t for his six TDs this season, we’d be far more worried about Thielen going forward. If the Ravens push the Vikings to throw this week, Thielen has solid upside. But his target profile also gives him a low floor.
Dalvin Cook ranks RB12 in expected points per game and has two sub-10 point outings, including last week. But we know from multiple Alexander Mattison spike weeks that there is still plenty of upside for the lead rusher in this offense. This isn’t an ideal setup for Cook, but he’s still a strong RB1.
Ravens Implied Team Total: 28
Lamar Jackson hasn’t been dazzling in terms of efficiency this season, ranking 15th in EPA per play. But the two players he falls between help illuminate why the Ravens have been more willing to go pass-heavy this season. Jackson ranks just behind Josh Allen and just ahead of Justin Herbert in EPA per play.
The Ravens are tied for 17th in pass rate over expected and have been even more willing to pass in situations where the defense has to defend both the run and pass. They rank 14th in situation neutral pass rate and are tied for eighth in PROE on 1st-and-10 with (among others) the Buccaneers. The Ravens have definitely shifted in identity this season.
The Vikings defense is much stronger against the pass than the run, so we’ll need the Ravens’ ideological shift to hold for them to be pass-heavy this week. Minnesota ranks sixth in EPA allowed per dropback, eighth in pass-rush grade and fifth in coverage grade. They rank 13th in run defense grade and 29th in EPA allowed per rush. But the Vikings’ last three opposing quarterbacks were Baker Mayfield with a torn labrum, Jared Goff, and a badly struggling Sam Darnold. They’re likely more exploitable through the air than the metrics indicate. This is backed up by the fact that opponents have been balanced against them, averaging a -1% pass rate over expected, with no shift toward the run from their season-long PROE rates.
Regardless of the matchup, the Ravens have a fairly high passing floor simply because their rushing efficiency isn’t anywhere close to where it used to be. The Ravens led the NFL in EPA per rush in 2019 and were second to the Titans in 2020. They rank 17th this season.
That’s what will happen when you’re down Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell at running back. Although maybe, just maybe, Ty’Son Williams regained the coaches’ trust during Baltimore’s bye week. With Latavius Murray listed as doubtful this week, Williams is the Ravens only real shot at an efficient running game. But for fantasy purposes, I’m totally fine if the Ravens want to roll out Freeman and Bell, knowing that they can pass protect and keep Jackson upright. Neither player is worth considering as even an RB2 flier this week, but I’m willing to sacrifice this fantasy backfield if it means Jackson is healthy and able to do his thing.
At wide receiver, the key question will be if Rashod Bateman (questionable, groin) plays and if so, if he sees an increased role coming out of the Ravens bye week. Bateman ran a route on 67% of dropbacks in his Week 6 debut and maintained the same role in Week 7, with a 66% route rate. Bateman has played well so far, with a borderline elite 1.91 YPRR. He’s running hot with a 9.9 YPT, which he won’t be able to sustain unless his 10.5 aDOT increases. But his efficiency can’t have hurt his case for more routes.
Bateman is earning a target on a solid 19% of his routes. He’s a low upside fill-in option in the role he showed before the bye. But he has FLEX appeal this week because there is upside that his role expands. If Sammy Watkins returns, or if Bateman is limited by injury, he could easily dud. But John Harbaugh has downplayed Bateman’s injury and Watkins looks more likely to return in Week 10.
Marquise Brown remains very clearly the top wide receiver in Baltimore. Brown has a strong 26% target share and an elite 38% air yard share, and he’s been even better on a per route basis. With a true deep threat aDOT of 16.5, Brown has seen an elite 23% target rate. As a result, his elite 2.29 YPRR is entirely sustainable based on his target profile. Brown’s routes have bounced around this season, with a season-long rate of 86%. But Brown was at 96% last week, and his per-route-target profile gives him elite upside if he runs a full slate of routes again this week.
Mark Andrews has also seen his routes fluctuate, but he’s trending in the wrong direction. He was at just 62% in Week 7 and hasn’t topped 80% since Week 4. Andrews is tied with Brown with an elite 2.29 YPRR, but unlike Brown he’s running hot in YPT, creating a risk of negative regression. Andrews also has downside risk of not being a true full-time receiver this week, given his recent usage. Andrews still needs to be locked into lineups, as one of the few tight ends with elite per route efficiency, but he’s more of a mid-TE1 than an elite option right now.
Browns at Bengals, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Browns Implied Team Total: 22.25
Baker Mayfield played through a shoulder fracture in Week 8 and will be doing so again against the Bengals. Despite his injury, Mayfield played pretty well against the Steelers. He finished 12th in EPA per play and 18th in CPOE. The Browns went run-heavy with a -3% pass rate over expected, but that was actually a shift to the pass, given their extremely run-heavy approach this season. On the year, the Browns are tied with the 49ers for 30th in pass rate over expected. Only the Titans have been more run-heavy this year.
While we can count on the Browns to be run-heavy here, it’s not clear that they will be more decidedly more run-heavy than they’ve already been. Mayfield’s injury definitely removes the upside of the team truly opening up the passing game this week. But it doesn’t look like the Browns will crank an already run-heavy approach into an even higher gear.
Mayfield is facing a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 27th in pass-rush grade and 14th in coverage grade. To the extent that the Browns are willing to lean on Mayfield, he should be able to deliver efficient production.
Mayfield won’t be targeting Odell Beckham this week. But... he wasn’t doing that anyway, which is how we got here. With the Browns announcing that they will be cutting Beckham, Jarvis Landry is the clear top option in this passing attack.
Landry has been dealing with a knee injury that forced him onto injured reserve earlier this season. Because he’s been banged up, Landry has run a route on just 62% of dropbacks. As a result, his 22% target share and 23% air yard share significantly understate his importance to the offense. Landry has been targeted on an elite 28% of his routes with an 8.1 aDOT.
Landry isn’t a deep threat and therefore needs elite volume to have elite upside... he’s getting elite volume on a per route basis. If the Bengals can push the Browns this week, he could be in for a strong game as the engine of the Browns’ passing attack.
On the other hand, if the Browns have any choice in the matter they’re going to feed Nick Chubb. Chubb, surprisingly, had just a 56% snap share in Week 8, with D’Ernest Johnson at 31%. But I’m with Ben Gretch in thinking that Chubb should see an increased role this week, in his second week back from injury.
In an ideal world, this matchup sets up as the AFC North’s version of the Texans/Titans shootouts we saw last season—with the Bengals playing the pass-heavy Texans and the Browns playing the run-heavy but high scoring Titans. But the Browns rank 29th in situation neutral pace and the Bengals rank 30th. So both teams are likely too slow to support such a glorious shootout.
Bengals Implied Team Total: 24.75
It feels very weird to be excited about a team after they just lost to the Jets, but yet, I am. The Bengals posted an 8% pass rate over expected for the second straight week, and it feels like the pass-heavy version of the Bengals is here to stay. They’ll probably sink back to the 4% PROE range, but I think we’re done with truly run-heavy game plans, outside of the odd week or two.
Burrow wasn’t firing on all cylinders but was still solid in Week 8. He finished 17th in EPA per play and ninth in CPOE. On the season, Burrow ranks eighth in EPA per play and ninth in CPOE. The Jets debacle shouldn’t cause the Bengals to rethink their offensive approach.
Burrow now gets a middling Browns pass defense that ranks 15th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Browns have an excellent pass rush, ranking third in PFF’s pass-rush grades. And they also rank sixth in PFF’s coverage grades. So “middling” is a little harsh if we’re going by PFF’s grades. But the Browns have beaten up on a couple of below-average offenses, while good offenses haven’t had much trouble against them.
(Lower is better, which means that... yes... the Texans were highly efficient against the Browns).
The Browns aren’t pushovers on defense, but Burrow should be able to have a strong day if he’s in better sync with his receivers than he was against the Jets.
Chase finally had a quiet week against the Jets... which makes this a good time to mention that Chase currently has the highest YPRR of all rookies in the PFF database, going back to 2006. Among players with 200+ routes, only Chase, Odell Beckham, Justin Jefferson and Alvin Kamara have posted a YPRR of 2.6+ as a rookie. Chase currently leads the way with 2.99. Even after last week’s poor 4.1 YPT, much of Chase’s stellar season has been driven by an extremely efficient 13.8 YPT. He’ll have other weeks like Week 8 as that regresses. But Chase also has a 25% target share, and his 43% air yard share is tied with Justin Jefferson for the fourth highest in the league, behind only Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin. He remains a WR1 and could have a strong bounce-back here.
Tee Higgins leads the Bengals with a 27% target share and he’s been targeted on 26% of his routes, which is elite for his 10.7 aDOT. He’s running cold with just a 7.2 YPT though. He just popped off for a 16.2 YPT against the Jets, but only had a 19% target share in Week 8. If he pairs his elite target rate with strong per target efficiency, he can deliver a huge week. Even better, because both he and Chase see deep targets, they can get there together in the same week—assuming the Bengals maintain their recent trend toward the pass.
Tyler Boyd is a thinner bet. He had a strong game against the Jets, but for the season he has a middling 1.68 YPRR that’s perfectly in line with his target profile. He’ll have his spike weeks... but we just got one and it was a 5-69-1 line.
Be careful using C.J. Uzomah in DFS or as a fill-in option. He has a 12.6 YPT, which is extremely spicy for his 5.8 aDOT. Uzomah also has five TDs, despite a 10% target share and 7% air yard share. He’s run a route on 76% of dropbacks, which is good. He’s not a truly terrible dart throw. But his production this season vastly overstates his opportunity.
Mixon ranks RB14 in expected points, but he had a 77% snap rate last week and handled 100% of backfield attempts. The Bengals blew out the Lions and the Ravens, and Mixon has dealt with injury, limiting his snaps in those weeks. Mixon is now fully healthy and should see a competitive game environment this week with the Bengals as 2.5 point favorites. He has a high-end RB1 upside.
Bills at Jaguars, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Bills Implied Team Total: 31.5
Josh Allen hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been very capable. Allen ranks 14th in EPA per play and sixth in CPOE. The Bills continue to push their advantage at quarterback by playing fast, ranking third in situation neutral pace. And the Bills are also maximizing Allen through pass-heavy play selection.
Outside of going extremely run-heavy in their Week 4, 40-0 decimation of the Texans, the Bills have been pass-heavy in every game this season. The Bills offensive approach is exciting because Week 4 was hardly their only runaway victory. Buffalo shut out the Dolphins in Week 2, 35-0 and are coming off a 26-11 win over the Dolphins that was surprising in that it was not more of a route. The Bills lead the league in point differential, and along with the Cardinals are in a different tier than the rest of the NFL.
This is a good sign for offensive production this week since the Bills are projected to beat the Jaguars easily as 14.5 point favorites.
Even better, the Jaguars are a pass funnel. Teams are averaging a 2% pass rate over expected against them, and only Tampa Bay and Washington are causing a bigger shift to the pass than Jacksonville. If you need more convincing that Jacksonville is a pass funnel... the Seahawks posted a 5% pass rate over expected with Geno Smith at quarterback.
Stefon Diggs has been disappointing this season. But at the same time... he’s clearly the No. 1 wide receiver on a pass-heavy team with very strong quarterback play and is fully healthy. If we were redrafting the season he’d be... an early second-round pick? If so, he’d arguably be a value. Diggs has been targeted on 24% of his routes with an 11.8 aDOT. He’s running a bit cold with an 8.1 YPT. At some point, he’s going to pop for a huge game. I’m going to keep betting on him until I’m right.
Emmanuel Sanders goose-egged against the Dolphins, but he still has a strong target profile this season, leading the team with a 33% air-yard share. Sanders’ 19.5 aDOT puts him at risk for another Week 8 style no-show, but it also means that he can have a big week on just a few plays.
Cole Beasley isn’t seeing more routes because of Dawson Knox‘s injury. Beasley was already a full-time player. But his target rate spiked to 30% against the Dolphins, while Tommy Sweeney managed just a 12% target rate. Beasley may not be able to soak up intermediate targets at that high of a rate going forward, but it makes intuitive sense that he would continue to pick up some of the target slack with Knox out.
Gabriel Davis also saw his target rate spike to 28%, but he ran a route on just 38% of dropbacks. As I wrote last week, Davis’ only path to reliable fantasy production is if he cuts into Emmanuel Sanders’ role on the outside and we’ve seen no indication of that so far.
Zack Moss’ role looks locked in at this point. He’s not a workhorse, but Moss has led the backfield in snaps and has had a 50%+ snap share in five straight games.
With the Bills as 14.5 point favorites, Moss should have plenty of opportunities to get in the end zone and is a solid RB2 play.
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 17
Coming off Jacksonville’s bye and facing a beatable Seahawks defense, I expected Trevor Lawrence to continue his stretch of good play. He did not. In Week 8, Lawrence finished 28th in EPA per play and 26th in CPOE.
He now ranks 28th in EPA per play and 33rd in CPOE this season. His rookie season has definitely had bright spots, but it’s certainly not gone as hoped.
Now Lawrence faces the most difficult matchup in the NFL. The Bills rank first in EPA allowed per dropback, 13th in pass-rush grade and first in coverage grade. They are a stifling defense that will not make it easy for Lawrence to regain his rhythm.
This makes it difficult to trust any Jaguars receivers, especially since roles are in flux.
Let’s start with Jamal Agnew, where there was optimism that he would see an increased role out of the Jaguars’ bye week.
Jamal Agnew is going to play A LOT for the Jaguars the rest of the way https://t.co/XB9gilAamM
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 25, 2021
This view made sense, given that Agnew has seen his usage increase dramatically before the bye, and had an elite 2.32 YPRR. But the promise of a post-bye role increase didn’t materialize. Agnew ran a route on 73% of dropbacks in Week 6; he ran a route on 74% of dropbacks in Week 8. Agnew was targeted on 21% of his routes against the Seahawks, which is pretty solid for his 7.2 aDOT, but not exciting. Agnew did at least get in the end zone, which saved his day from otherwise very poor efficiency, posting a 0.90 YPRR. Agnew looks locked into a solid route rate, and clearly owns the slot role in Jacksonville. But after Week 8, Agnew is down to a mediocre 1.53 YPRR, and he’s still running hot in YPT, meaning further regression could be on the way.
I would argue the Jaguars receiving game is better defined by what’s not happening than what is. And what’s not happening is... Laviska Shenault. Shenault did see a role change after the bye week, but the wrong kind. Shenault’s route rate dropped from 82% in Week 6 to 61% in Week 8. (Cause, how could you not want to get Tavon Austin on the field as much as possible?) Shenault has now seen his route rate dip to 61% in two of his last three games. With a mediocre 20% target rate for his 7.0 aDOT, he looks like a very thin starting option this week.
If you don’t fall into one of the two corners of Twitter currently hyping the low upside underneath options on the Jaguars... and are committed to playing a Jaguars wide receiver for some reason... play Marvin Jones. Jones has a 12.4 aDOT and a 31% air yard share. He’s gross because this offense is gross. But Jones is locked into a full-time role and should see some positive regression on his poor 7.6 YPT soon.
The best receiving option here may be Dan Arnold. Arnold ran a route on 74% of dropbacks in Week 8, up from 61% before the bye. Arnold has been targeted on 20% of his routes, which helps make up for his shallow 6.6 aDOT. He’s not a high upside option, but his volume looks pretty reliable.
James Robinson is questionable this week, which could put Carlos Hyde into a workhorse role. Hyde played 66% of snaps in Week 8 with Dare Ogunbowale at 20%. The Bills will likely be far ahead in this game, so Hyde’s early-down skillset may not be the best fit... but the Jaguars just got boat raced by the Seahawks, so Hyde should have a solid snap share even in an inevitable loss. Hyde also ran a route on 63% of dropbacks last week, so he has a bit more pass-catching upside than is generally perceived (and specifically perceived, by me, before looking at the route data). It’s hard to count on Hyde, or a banged-up Robinson, in such a difficult matchup, there should be plenty of receiving opportunity.
Texans at Dolphins, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Texans Implied Team Total: 20.5
Tyrod Taylor has been named the Texans starter this week, as he returns from a hamstring injury that has knocked him out of action since Week 2. My excitement level for Taylor’s return is downright embarrassing. We have a very limited sample size for Taylor of course. He played less than two games... but it was a hell of a game and a half.
Even if Taylor’s early-season play was just misleadingly good instead of a full-blown mirage, he will still be far better than Davis Mills.
And this is a matchup where non-terrible quarterback play can go a long way. The Dolphins rank 24th in EPA allowed per dropback, 22nd in pass-rush grade and 19th in coverage grade. The Dolphins are more stout against the run, ranking 10th in EPA allowed per rush and seventh in run defense grade. As a result, opponents are averaging a 5% pass rate over expected against them, and are shifting 2% toward the pass. Only Tampa Bay and Washington are bigger pass funnels.
The Texans have been extremely run-heavy this season, ranking 27th in pass rate over expected and dead last in situation neutral pass rate. But they were balanced in their Week 1 win against the pass funnel Jaguars—their only full game with Taylor healthy. The Texans won’t be pass-happy this week, but the matchup and upgraded quarterback play may at least push them to a balanced approach.
All of this combines to put Taylor in play for the galaxy-brained. More importantly, it makes Brandin Cooks a strong option for the normal brained. Cooks leads the NFL in air yard share, is sixth in target share, and is second to only Davante Adams in WOPR. And despite playing with Davis Mills for 6+ games, Cooks has an elite 2.21 YPRR. Cooks is still soaking up volume on a bad offense, so his elite market share won’t translate to truly elite fantasy production. But this week his upside is at least in the same ballpark as his underlying opportunity.
In the backfield, things are definitely a mess, but maybe not as much of a mess as last week indicated. Ben Gretch watched the Texans for our sins, and noted:
David Johnson is probably worth the risk if you want to really play him... you sicko.
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 25.5
The Texans have been a major run funnel this season. Only the Chargers, Cardinals and Raiders have been bigger run funnels this year, and only the Chargers and Raiders are causing a bigger shift to the run. The Texans are actually better against the run than the pass. But they’re still pretty bad against the run, ranking 15th in EPA allowed per rush and 26th in rush defense grade. And with the Texans offense being extremely ineffective with Davis Mills under center, teams haven’t really felt the need to pass on them heavily.
But the Texans are about to go from zero to frisky, which could push the Dolphins into more passing situations. Not to mention, the Dolphins can’t run the ball. Miami’s run blocking is terrible. They rank 29th in adjusted line yards. It’s no surprise then that they rank 31st in EPA per rush.
Myles Gaskin ranks RB18 in expected points over the last two weeks with Malcolm Brown injured. But Gaskin is valuable largely because he has a strong receiving role—Gaskin ranks RB14 in expected receiving yards over the last two weeks. Even with Brown out, Gaskin has just a 52% snap share, but he is firmly ahead of Salvon Ahmed (27%) and can be relied on as an RB2 this week as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
The Dolphins are well aware that they don’t have a professional running game. As a result, Miami ranks fourth in pass rate over expected this season, behind only the Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams. And they rank seventh in situation neutral pass rate.
With the Dolphins as 5.5 point favorites, the betting market isn’t entirely sold on my frisky-Texans theory. If the Dolphins can take care of the Texans easily, then we could see limited overall volume in a low-scoring game. But if the Texans can push the Dolphins to some extent, we could see a nice rebound for the Dolphins’ passing attack.
We knew that Tua Tagovailoa facing the Bills defense would be rough, and it was. Tua finished 24th in EPA per play and 25th in CPOE in Week 8. He now ranks 24th in EPA per play and 18th in CPOE this season.
Luckily, his matchup this week is far, far easier. The Texans rank 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in coverage grade. Tagovailoa should be able to find much more success on his dropbacks this week.
Jaylen Waddle ran a route on 93% of dropbacks last week and has been at a 79%+ route rate in every game this season. With DeVante Parker now on injured reserve, the Dolphins have no choice but to feature the rookie. Waddle’s 6.0 aDOT gives him far less upside than Parker (12.9 aDOT) had, however. And he’s actually being targeted at the same 21% rate that Parker was. Parker was in a meaningfully more valuable role, but Waddle still has target upside this week.
Mike Gesicki saw a target on just 10% of his routes against the Bills... but he had a truly elite 98% route rate. Tight ends rarely run route on 95%+ of dropbacks. Gesicki has completed the process of turning into a wide receiver with tight end eligibility. With Parker out, he’s a high-end TE1 play.
Raiders at Giants, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Raiders Implied Team Total: 24.75
Derek Carr ranks ninth in EPA per play this season and 10th in CPOE. He’s having a good season, and now gets a weak Giants defense after his bye week. The Giants rank 18th in EPA allowed per dropback, 26th in pass-rush grade and 21st in coverage grade.
The Giants are also bad against the run, ranking 21st in EPA allowed per rush and 25th in rush defense grade. Teams have been fairly balanced in attacking them, although the Giants also allow teams to play to their strengths. The very run-heavy Saints went ultra-run heavy against them. The very pass-heavy Chiefs went ultra-pass heavy.
The Raiders are an unexpectedly pass-heavy team this season, tied for eighth in pass rate over expected. And they’ve maintained a pass-heavy approach under new play-caller Greg Olsen. They’ll likely be fairly balanced here but with a tilt toward the pass.
Henry Ruggs is no longer in the NFL after a DUI resulting in another driver’s death. The details are gutting. It’s an absolute tragedy.
The Raiders offense will likely shift in several ways. We’ll likely see Zay Jones in a much bigger role, and the offense is likely to be less efficient overall, without Ruggs’ speed available to stretch the defense.
Bryan Edwards has played a similar deep threat role to Ruggs, with a 15.9 aDOT to Ruggs’ 17.1. He will likely see additional targets, but with a 12% target share this season, he has a ways to go before he’s a strong fantasy option.
Darren Waller will likely see additional targets, although Waller has a 24% target share and 26% air yard share this season. He’s actually seen very strong volume. Waller has been running cold with a 7.3 YPT, so positive regression was actually his quickest path back to elite production. If the overall offense takes a step back, that could hurt more than if Waller sees an uptick in target share. The is upside scenario is that Waller consolidates targets and the offense doesn’t see a major drop-off. In a matchup with weak Giants’ defense, Waller has a very high ceiling this week.
Josh Jacobs avoided major injury with his Week 7 ribs injury and should be good to go after the Raiders’ bye week. Jacobs ranked RB17 in expected points per game before being knocked out of Week 7. He looks like a solid RB2 play this week against a Giants defense that is weak against the run.
Giants Implied Team Total: 21.75
Daniel Jones is having one of his better seasons, and also a somewhat disappointing season. He’s flashed real potential at times but currently sits at 22rd in EPA per play and 23rd in CPOE. Going against an extremely poor Chiefs defense in Week 8, he was just 22nd in EPA per play.
Jones now gets a far better Raiders defense than ranks eighth in EPA allowed per dropback, first in pass-rush grade and fourth in coverage grade. Jones has done a better job of protecting the ball this year... but that could be about to change.
Jones is also still dealing with injuries to many of his key weapons. Sterling Shepard is out this week with a quad injury. Saquon Barkley is out with a sprained ankle. Kenny Golladay is questionable but looks unlikely to play. Kadarius Toney is at least off the injury report after being limited in practice this week.
Having Toney healthy may be key for the Giants this week. Not only is Toney having a very strong season with a 2.74 YPRR, but Toney is the natural fit to take over Sterling Shepard‘s vacated slot role. Toney is running extremely hot with a 10.4 YPT, despite a shallow 6.7 aDOT. But he’s still being targeted on an elite 27% of his routes. Even when he cools off, he’ll be having a very impressive season.
Darius Slayton will be the only other fantasy-relevant wide receiver this week, and just barely. Slayton ran a route on 79% of dropbacks against the Chiefs. He’s not a true full-time player for some reason, even with the Giants overwhelmed with injuries. Slayton has been targeted on 20% of his routes, which is pretty good for his 13.0 aDOT. But it’s not an ideal matchup to play the deep threat of a pressure-sensitive quarterback.
Evan Engram runs a lot of routes. So... that’s something. Engram has only been targeted on 16% of his routes, which seems bad, and then you learn that his aDOT is just 4.2 and you start to feel a little nauseous, and... let’s move on.
Devontae Booker will get at least one more week as the Giants’ workhorse. Since Week 5, Booker ranks RB3 in expected points per game. He’s vastly underperformed his workload to deliver just 15.4 points per game. Some underperformance shouldn’t be shocking. Booker is a solid backup, but he is a backup for a reason. And the Giant’s offense is far from the type of elite unit that could deliver strong efficiency from a mid-level talent. Not only has Daniel Jones struggled recently, but the Giants’ offensive line ranks 31st in adjusted line yards. Even still, Booker is due for some positive regression.
The Raiders rank ninth in EPA allowed per rush, so this is not a good matchup for Booker. But teams have been doing everything they can to avoid passing against the Raiders’ difficult pass defense. Raiders opponents are averaging a -4% PROE and are shifting 5% to the run. Only the Chargers are causing a bigger shift to the ground game. There’s downside risk for a Daniel Jones meltdown, but Booker could be a focal point of the game plan this week and looks like a solid RB2.
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Chargers at Eagles, 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday
Chargers Implied Team Total: 25.25
Justin Herbert is coming off his worst game of the season and now has back-to-back worrisome performances.
Herbert’s struggles weren’t against elite units either. The Ravens rank 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and the Patriots rank 17th. This week he actually faces a more difficult Eagles defense than ranks 13th in EPA allowed per dropback, fifth in pass-rush grade and 18th in coverage grade. The Eagles are far from an elite unit, but they’re not a total push over either.
On the other hand, for the season as a whole, Herbert looks fine, ranking 16th in EPA per play. Herbert is playing good, not great, football. He struggled in back-to-back weeks, but he could easily break out of his slump here against a middle-of-the-road defense.
The red flags don’t stop with Herbert’s recent play, however. The Chargers went run-heavy against the Patriots for just the second time all season and posted a new season-low with a -4% pass rate over expected. The Patriots are a run funnel but looked weaker against the pass than against the run entering Week 8, which makes it interesting that the Chargers chose to go run-heavy. Combined with Herbert’s struggles, the Chargers’ aggressive shift to the run isn’t a great sign for the passing game this week—because the Eagles are a run funnel as well. Only the Texans, Raiders and Chargers are causing a bigger shift to the run than the Eagles this season.
The Chargers do at least play fast. They rank second in situation-neutral seconds per play, behind only the Rams. So if they do go run-heavy, they may at least avoid turning the game into a total slog.
The Chargers non-traditional backfield may also prevent them from taking complete advantage of the matchup. Facing the run funnel Patriots last week, Austin Ekeler played a 75% snap share but had just 61% of backfield attempts. Larry Rountree mixed for 22% of attempts and Justin Jackson saw 17% of snaps. Ekeler still finished third among running backs with 26.5 expected points. But his expected receiving yards were nearly twice his expected rushing yards. So Ekeler may be better off if the Chargers don’t fully embrace the rushing matchup.
If the Chargers do end up going pass-heavy, this is a decent matchup for a Herbert rebound. The Eagles rank 13th in EPA allowed per dropback, fifth in pass-rush grade and 18th in coverage grade. Most teams find it easier to attack on the ground, but the Chargers should be just fine if they decide to attack through the air instead. If so, we know that the majority of the receiving volume will go to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.
Williams now slightly trails Allen in WOPR, with a 22% target share to Allen’s 25%. He leads in air yard share 34% to 28%, but that doesn’t quite make up for Allen’s lead in target share. Williams was nursing a knee injury in Week 6, which skews his target share and air yard share, however.
Williams is much stronger than Allen on a per route basis. He’s been targeted on 24% of his routes to 23% for Allen, and his 12.5 aDOT gives him significantly more upside than Allen’s 9.0.
But while the per-game numbers overstate Allen’s role, the per route numbers overstate Williams’ role... because some of Allen’s advantage in routes appears to be related to the role. Williams’ highest route rate all season is 88%, while Allen has been at 90%+ in every game but one this season. Allen also ran a route on 100% of dropbacks against the Patriots.
Both players are strong options with Williams the slightly better option. But Williams looks to have less of a lead on Allen than the general market perception.
Jaylen Guyton has run a route on 71% of dropbacks, but as the spiritual successor to Chris Hogan, he has been targeted on just 9% of his routes.
Jared Cook has run a route on 69% of dropbacks and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. With an aDOT of 8.6, he’s not an exciting option. But hey, maybe he’ll score a TD.
Eagles Implied Team Total: 24.25
Jalen Hurts finally had a strong game outside of garbage time, finishing sixth in EPA per play. Yet Hurts had a terrible fantasy performance because Eagles running backs combined for four TDs. But Hurts also left plenty of production on the table, finishing 24th in CPOE.
Hurts ranks 26th in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE this year, and remains very much the same play as before. He’s having a poor real-life season and is largely reliant on garbage time to deliver a strong fantasy day.
This week doesn’t seem like a great bet for garbage time, however. The Eagles are just one-point underdogs, and the Chargers could be more conservative than we’re used to seeing. The Eagles may embrace the run in turn, which they’re kind of into right now. Since opening the season very pass-heavy, the Eagles have shifted to the run in a big way.
I’ve talked endlessly about the Bengals shift to the pass, but the Eagles shift to the run has actually been more dramatic
If the Eagles were playing the Chargers three or four weeks ago, it might be unclear how they would attack. But it now seems likely that they’ll take advantage of the Chargers run funnel defense.
The Chargers are the most clear-cut run funnel in the league. Opponents are averaging a -4% pass rate over expected against them, which is tied with the Raiders and Cardinals for the lowest opposing PROE in the league. And opponents are shifting 7% to the run against the Chargers, the most in the NFL. The Raiders are next closest with a 5% shift. Even if the Eagles still looked pass-heavy, we might expect them to go run-heavy here. Given their recent game plans, that now seems very likely.
With Philadelphia shifting to the run and Miles Sanders out of the lineup, the Eagles have of course buried Kenneth Gainwell on the depth chart, because fantasy football is very fun and not tilting whatsoever.
Kenneth Gainwell saw 12 of his 13 carries in the fourth quarter
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 1, 2021
WOOF.
This usage strikes me as a demotion. If Gainwell simply hadn’t been used at all, I’d actually be more comfortable chalking his lack of role to the Eagles’ positive game script. The fact that they used him in meaningless snaps with Gardner Minshew at quarterback cannot be a good sign for his role this week.
As Kyle Dvorchak noted on A Good Football Show this week, Boston Scott ran nine routes against the Lions. The Eagles were so run-heavy that, incredibly, that was good for a 47% route rate. But the key takeaway is that Scott has some receiving equity as part of his role. He looks to be clearly ahead of Gainwell on early downs and decently involved as a receiver as well. Jordan Howard is a threat to snipe goal-line carries, but Scott looks like a surprisingly strong option this week.
When the Eagles do throw, DeVonta Smith remains clearly ahead at wide receiver. Quez Watkins actually ran a route on 100% of dropbacks, while Smith was only at 79% against the Lions. But again, because of the blowout script, Watkins’ additional playing time isn’t ideal. Watkins also has a 13.1 YPT that is unsustainable. His strong play has helped him pass Jalen Reagor in the target pecking order but also makes him a very risky play. Reagor is recovered from last week’s injury but remains a fantasy-cut candidate nonetheless.
This leaves Smith as the only option worth considering at wide receiver. His 19% target rate isn’t ideal, but it’s not bad for his 14.4 aDOT. The bigger issue has been a 7.8 YPT, which is quite poor for his deep threat usage. But Smith’s aDOT also puts him in position to make his day on just a few deep balls. If the Chargers push the Eagles into a pass-heavy script, Smith is likely to be the main beneficiary.
Dallas Goedert would also make good use of some additional routes. He has a target on 17% of his routes, with a fairly deep tight end aDOT of 8.9. His target profile is far from elite, but as I noted last week, he’s at least being used downfield like the elite options. He just doesn’t get targeted at nearly the same rate.
Packers at Chiefs, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Packers Implied Team Total: 20.25
Jordan Love will start for the Packers this week with Aaron Rodgers on the Covid list. We have essentially no sample on Love, with his only action coming against the Saints in Week 1’s disastrous blowout loss.
Love is fairly mobile and has gotten a year and a half of work in this offense before making his starting debut. He also has sharps intrigued.
Going through all of his preseason throws, and outside of this game being on the road, it could be a really promising first start for Jordan Love
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 4, 2021
And just like last Thursday, we're definitely going to see Matt LaFleur flex his design muscles pic.twitter.com/Chu1qPItZR
Love should be helped out by two key factors here: Davante Adams will return from the Covid list this week, and the Chiefs defense stinks.
The Chiefs rank 30th in EPA allowed per dropback, 31st in pass-rush grade and 17th in coverage grade. The pass-heavy Packers are likely to play more balanced, and they’re likely to play even slower than their 28th ranked pace this season, but Love is unlikely to be truly bad in such a soft matchup.
This should keep Davante Adams in play as at least a borderline-elite option. He’s unlikely to be able to keep up his current pace this season, but the dude has a 3.25 YPRR this year. He’ll be just fine even with a little regression. Adams is the only Packers skill player I’m willing to trust this week. Things look too crowded for the other wide receivers, with Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling both back in the lineup.
AJ Dillon saw a major increase in usage in Week 8. Despite a 40% snap share, Dillon handled 52% of backfield attempts. Aaron Jones had a 66% snap share but saw just 48% of backfield attempts.
But Jones’ fantasy managers should have been jumping for joy. Dillon’s increased usage allowed Jones to play additional receiving snaps and Jones finished with a ridiculous 33.8 expected points, leading all running backs in Week 8.
Week 8 was a special situation with Adams, Lazard and Valdes-Scantling all inactive, and Robert Tonyan tearing his ACL during the game. If Dillon sees a 52% backfield share this week, it will hurt Jones considerably more. But Jones’ usage last week was still very bullish. The Packers fully understand that Jones is a critical playmaker for them. They won’t forget that as they game plan with a backup quarterback this week.
Chiefs Implied Team Total: 27.75
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t looked quite himself this season and is trending down in EPA per play.
But at the same time, Mahomes has yet to post a negative week in EPA per play this season and ranks seventh in EPA per play on the year. He ranks just behind Kyler Murray and well ahead of Josh Allen. The Chiefs don’t have the extremely high offensive floor that we’re used to, but the sky is not falling.
Mahomes now gets a middling Packers defense that ranks 16th in EPA allowed per dropback, 11th in pass-rush grade and 16th in coverage grade. If we were getting this matchup in Week 5, we’d be stunned if this game didn’t shoot out. Mahomes’ recent struggles make the path to failure more obvious, and a true shootout is likely off the table with Rodgers out. But the betting market still expects big things from the Chiefs here, giving them a 27.75 total.
One reason the betting market may still have faith in Mahomes... is that the Chiefs clearly trust him. The Chiefs are now tied with the Buccaneers in pass rate over expected and have been passing through Mahomes’ slump.
Packers’ opponents have been balanced against them, but if the Chiefs are balanced this week, it will be for the first time this season.
The Chiefs passing game is very simple... Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, or nothing. Mecole Hardman ran a route on just 60% of dropbacks against the Giants, which was somehow 7% less than Darrel Williams. Byron Pringle and Josh Gordon were at 44% and Demarcus Robinson was at 37%. Theoretically, Hardman is the cheap option to consider in this offense, but he has a shallow 7.2 aDOT and has been targeted on just 17% of his routes. As a part-time player, his only path to upside is to rack up yards after the catch. Hardman looks great with the ball in his hands, and we’ll probably have a spike week at some point due to impressive catch and run, but good luck predicting it.
Hill has a 29% target share and a 38% air yard share, despite playing limited snaps over the last six weeks. Hill ran a route on 93% of dropbacks in Week 1, and 100% in Week 2; since Week 3 he’s maxed out at 86%, and was at just 58% in Week 6. Having practiced in full this week, this could easily be a huge game.
Travis Kelce has a 7.8 aDOT this season, and I’m growing mildly concerned about him. He still has a fairly strong 21% target rate, but Kelce had an 8.9 aDOT in 2020, which was already his lowest aDOT since 2016. Going down to 7.8 is a big dip. If Kelce is struggling to threaten deep, he won’t have the weekly upside that we’re used to. It’s entirely possible that Kelce mixes in some deep targets again this week, and his low aDOT looks like a small sample size blip. But given that he’s 32 years old, it’s something to be mindful of. For this week, I’m treating Kelce as the guy we drafted. The Chiefs are likely to be pass-heavy here, and Kelce is still a huge part of the Chiefs passing attack.
Derrick Gore certainly looks like he has more juice than Darrel Williams, and he handled 46% of backfield attempts in Week 8, to 54% for Williams. Williams handled 64% of snaps, however, and remains the clear RB2 play here over Gore. Keep your eye on Gore this week though, and stash him where you have the roster spot to do so.
Cardinals at 49ers, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Cardinals Implied Team Total: 21.25
Kyler Murray is a true game-time decision, and even if he plays he’ll be at less than 100%. Murray will also be without A.J. Green and likely without DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring). Luckily the Cardinals are deep at wide receiver... but losing Murray would be a major downgrade for the offense. The betting market is concerned, with the 49ers now 2.5 point favorites.
The 49ers defense ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback, 21st in pass-rush grade and ninth in coverage grade. Murray ranks sixth in EPA per play this season and second in CPOE behind Russell Wilson. Even at less than full health and a banged-up receiver corp, he should be able to be productive in this game.
With Green definitely out of the lineup and with Hopkins likely in a limited role even if he plays, we’re very likely to see more of Christian Kirk on the outside. Kirk has played 88% of his snaps in the slot this season, but played on the outside for much of last year, and would be a natural fit to play there than Rondale Moore.
Moore has played 78% of his snaps from the slot and could see a significant role increase this week with Green out. Moore leads the team with a 2.22 YPRR, although that is largely driven by him running very hot in YPT.
Moore and Kirk may both play in the slot, but they have very different roles in the offense. Kirk is second on the team with a 2.15 YPRR, but he’s delivering value by stretching the middle of the defense with a 13.4 aDOT. Moore is a YAC dynamo with a silly-low 1.5 aDOT. Kirk is the safer bet of the two. He’s already a full-time player, and there’s no chance he won’t be this week. But Moore has potential to see his role grow substantially, and unlike Kirk, he’s not at risk of moving to a sub-optimal outside role. If it comes together for Moore, it could come together in a big way. If Murray and Hopkins both miss the game, Moore is arguably the best fantasy bet on the team, given his shallow aDOT and schemed touches. Although, Moore’s fantasy managers are obviously pulling for Murray to start.
If Hopkins plays with Murray active, he needs to be in lineups unless we’re hearing that he’s going to be a decoy. With Green out, Hopkins could soak up outside targets. If Kirk moves to the outside this week and isn’t able to earn targets at the same rate as he does in the slot, Hopkins could reprise his 2020 role as a target hog.
Zach Ertz could soak up some additional targets, particularly if Hopkins misses the game. His route rate was up to 68% with Hopkins knocked out of Week 8, from a 56% route rate in his Week 7 Cardinals debut. He’ll still likely be a TD or bust option, but has interesting target upside if Kirk is forced to operate as the No. 1 wide receiver on the outside... and of course if Murray plays.
Chase Edmonds and James Conner continue to be in a 60/40 split. Edmonds has a 60% snap share this season and is coming off a 59% snap share against the Packers. Conner has a 42% snap share and had a 37% snap share against the Packers. The 49ers rank seventh in EPA allowed per rush, so it’s not an ideal matchup for either back. Edmonds looks like an RB2 and Conner continues to profile as a TD or bust option... assuming Murray plays.
49ers Implied Team Total: 23.75
Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 13th in EPA per play, somehow ahead of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. I get as frustrated with Kyle Shanahan as the next guy, but never forget that the dude can scheme offense.
In case you think I’m being unfair to Jimmy by attributing his efficiency to his coach... Garoppolo ranks 29th in CPOE, just behind Carson Wentz.
One of the ways that Shanahan schemes for Garoppolo is by avoiding him entirely, and running the ball. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to do that here. The Cardinals are very strong against the pass, ranking second in EPA allowed per dropback, seventh in pass-rush grade and third in coverage grade. Despite knowing they have to outscore Kyler Murray, opposing teams have gone out of their way to avoid the Cardinals pass defense. Arizona’s opponents are averaging a -4% PROE and are shifting 2% to the pass.
The 49ers already love to ruin the ball, so they won’t need any convincing to go run-heavy this week. They certainly didn’t when playing the Cardinals in Week 5, posting a -9% PROE. For the season, the 49ers have a -5% PROE, tied with the Browns for 30th in the league; and the 49ers are 27th in situation neutral pass rate.
The issue this week is that we don’t know who the 49ers will be running the ball with. Elijah Michell (ribs) is truly questionable. In a best-case scenario, he could be in for a strong workload. Mitchell has a 65% snap share this season and has handled 81% of backfield attempts. He isn’t much of a pass-catcher, which hurts his fantasy value, ranking just RB34 in expected points per game, and RB36 over the last two weeks. But he has the upside to be in the RB2 mix this week. The downside is terrifying, however, as Jeff Wilson may be activated from injured reserve this week and could have a meaningful role on Sunday.
Deebo Samuel continues to be a truly elite option. Samuel was targeted on 38% of his routes against the Bears and has an absolutely elite 30% target rate this season. Samuel is running extremely hot with a 12.2 YPT, but his underlying volume is also extremely strong. Samuel has a 33% target share and 35% air yard share. With a 0.74 WOPR, he trails only Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks and Diontae Johnson. However... Samuel’s status is now in question due to a calf injury. It’s possible he sees a reduced route share this week even if he’s active.
Is that Brandon Aiyuk‘s music??? Aiyuk redeemed himself a bit in Week 8, with a 96% route rate and a target on 26% of his routes. No caveats needed—he had a legitimately great target profile against the Bears. Of course, the larger caveat is we expected this type of usage most weeks in 2021, and it’s the first time we’ve anything close to it all year. Still, Aiyuk could be called upon to fill in for Samuel this week and has some FLEX appeal even if Samuel goes. I’m willing to risk him as a WR4 this week.
George Kittle will return from injured reserve, which also helps pick up any slack that Samuel’s injury creates. Kittle has a strong 1.89 YPRR this season. He needs to be in lineups regardless of Samuel’s status.
Titans at Rams, 8:20 PM Eastern, Sunday
Titans Implied Team Total: 22.5
I don’t have to tell you that the Titans love to run the ball. But it may still surprise you to learn just how run-heavy they’ve been.
The Titans haven't had a single game with a neutral pass rate over 51% since the beginning of 2020.
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 1, 2021
The pass game won't be quite as efficient with more volume, but Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown have a serious ceiling now. pic.twitter.com/3zfUwx7rXc
The Titans can try and follow the same script with Adrian Peterson subbed in for Derrick Henry but that’s not going to go well. Peterson is a massive downgrade regardless of opponent... but it seems genuinely impossible for the Titans to keep pace with the Rams with a plan that involves featuring Peterson.
It’s possible that we get a high-volume passing game from Tannehill here, which has been an exceedingly rare occurrence since Tannehill became the starting quarterback in Tennessee.
Including the playoffs, Tannehill has attempted 35+ passes just nine times in 38 starts with the Titans. Matthew Stafford has thrown 35+ attempts in four of eight games this season.
Additional volume may not be a great thing for Tannehill, who thrives on highly efficient play-action passing. But A.J. Brown won’t complain. Brown has a ridiculously good 2.62 YPRR this season, which is in line with his target opportunity. Brown has targeted on an elite 27% of his routes for his 12.8 aDOT. He’s running a little hot with a 9.8 YPT, but the vast majority of his value is coming from strong target volume on his routes. Additional routes will be highly beneficial for his fantasy production, even if his YPT takes a small hit.
Keep an eye on Brown’s status, however, as he’s now questionable with a knee injury.
Julio Jones looks likely to return this week and would also benefit from additional routes. He has a very strong 2.35 YPRR this season. Jones is running very hot with an 11.1 YPT, but he has also been targeted on 21% of his routes, which is a strong rate for his 13.7 aDOT. It’s possible the Titans work him back slowly, but if he’s part of an expanding passing game or needs to fill in for an injured Brown, Jones could hit the ground running.
Given that this is Peterson’s first game with the team, and the Titans will be attempting to hang with the Rams, we could see quite a bit of Jeremy McNichols this week. McNichols has a 25% snap share this season but has still managed a 10% target share. If you picked up McNichols as an RB2 option, this looks like one of the better opportunities he’ll see.
Rams Implied Team Total: 30
Matthew Stafford leads the NFL in EPA per play and it’s not close.
As you can see above though, Stafford is likely running a bit hot in EPA, because he hasn’t been all that accurate this season, ranking just 20th in CPOE.
Stafford is operating in a system that allowed Jared Goff to finish fifth in EPA per play in 2018, so I’m very open to the idea of Sean McVay maximizing his quarterbacks. Still, Stafford is unlikely to be able to stay quite as efficient as he’s been so far.
The good news is that the Rams passing attack is likely to maintain high volume. The Rams play fast, leading the NFL in situation-neutral seconds per play. And the Rams strongly favor the pass, with a 6% pass rate over expected that ranks third in the league. They also rank third in situation-neutral pass rate. And McVay’s ability to maximize his quarterbacks isn’t magic, he does smart stuff. One of the key things McVay is doing this year is passing heavily on 1st-and-10. The Rams are behind only the Bills, Giants, Chargers and Chiefs in PROE on 1st-and-10.
Stafford may eventually lose some of his efficiency, but the Titans wouldn’t be my first call to slow down this Rams offense. The Titans rank 19th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in pass-rush grade. The Titans rank second in coverage grade, so they have a chance here... but their defense resembles the Buccaneers a bit in its ability to cover decently well (Tampa Bay ranks 10th in coverage grade) while being unable to generate pressure (Tampa Bay ranks 25th in pass-rush grade). And like the Buccaneers, the Titans are a pass funnel. Opposing offenses are averaging a 4% PROE against the Titans, and teams are shifting 2% to the pass against them.
Unlike the Buccaneers’ pass funnel defense, the Titans aren’t great at stopping the run. They rank 20th in EPA allowed per rush and 25th in run defense grade. If the Rams wanted to they could be quite productive on the ground here. The thing is, they’ve yet to go run-heavy in a single week this season. It’s possible they’re balanced like they were against the Colts and Giants, but odds are that they run things through Stafford and company yet again.
This all sets up incredibly well for Cooper Kupp, who continues to have an amazing season.
Cooper Kupp through 8 games this year - 214.9 PPR points
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) November 1, 2021
Cooper Kupp through 15 games last year - 208.7 PPR points
What Kupp is doing right now is unbelievable.
At this point, I feel the need to write up Kupp just to fight off any boredom that might set in on his unreal production. He’s been targeted on 32% of his routes with a 9.5 aDOT... his opportunity is beyond elite and he’s set up to smash yet again. Kupp tends to be underutilized in DFS every week, but we don’t have that issue this week, with Kupp off the main slate. I don’t play showdown, so ignore this... but Kupp is why the captain spot was created.
Robert Woods continues to be locked into a solid No. 2 role. With a 21% target share and a 20% air yard share, he has the type of profile that is only enticing when the player is part of an elite passing offense... which of course, he is.
With DeSean Jackson out of the picture, Van Jefferson is locked into the No. 3 wide receiver role. Jefferson has a solid 1.68 YPRR this season, but his 14.0 aDOT makes him interesting as a dart throw. He only needs to connect on a couple of deep targets to turn in a productive day.
Tyler Higbee is fourth in the target pecking order, with a target on just 15% of his routes, and a very shallow 4.3 aDOT. He’s a TD or bust option.
The Rams may not run the ball as much as they could... but at least all the production runs through Darrell Henderson. Henderson has a 78% snap share this season, and if anything his usage has been skewed low by garbage time. Henderson ranks RB7 in expected points per game and is a locked-in RB1 here.
Bears at Steelers, 8:15 PM Eastern, Monday
Bears Implied Team Total: 16
With Matt Nagy unable to game plan or call plays, Justin Fields had a legitimate breakout game on Sunday, finishing fourth in EPA per play and fifth in CPOE. His season has been highly frustrating, but that frustration may be skewing our perception of how badly his 2021 has gone. Fields’ season now looks very similar to Trevor Lawrence‘s so far.
This says as much about Lawrence, who is more quietly having a very disappointing rookie season, as Fields. But at 29th in EPA per play, Fields ranks one spot lower than Lawrence, and Fields ranks well ahead of Lawrence in CPOE, 22nd to 33rd.
Fields’ success against the 49ers was, extremely predictably, driven by increased rushing production. Fields led all quarterbacks in Week 8 with 103 rushing yards. We shouldn’t give OC Bill Lazor too much credit here though—89 of Fields’ 103 yards came on scrambles. Fields had just two designed rushes. On the season, Fields ranks fourth in quarterback rushing yards, despite not starting a game until Week 3. But he ranks seventh in quarterback rushing attempts, tied with Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance.
Nagy returned to the Bears this week, so the progress we did see from Fields last week is likely out the window. The betting market agrees, giving the Bears an embarrassingly low 16 implied team total.
Even with Fields having a much stronger game than what he’d shown heading into Week 8, his weapons weren’t fantasy relevant. Allen Robinson ran a route on 85% of dropback but managed just a 0.64 YPRR, with a very poor 12% target rate. Cole Kmet had a strong 79% route rate and a solid 19% target rate, but a terrible 4.0 YPT, and managed just a 0.77 YPRR.
Darnell Mooney was the only usable option with an elite 28% target rate for his 16.0 aDOT. The Bears are off the main slate, so I can tell myself I have the stones to single stack Fields with Mooney in DFS week if it was an option. But between you and me, with Nagy back, I would never. Plus, Mooney popped up on the injury report on Friday with a groin injury.
David Montgomery may return this week as well, which complicates the Bears’ backfield in a big play. Long-term, Montgomery can be expected to be the lead back, but in his first week back we could see him mix in for limited snaps. Khalil Herbert had a 64% snap rate in Week 8 and 88% of the backfield touches. He could have one more week of strong RB2 value, but it’s a risky bet with Montgomery’s status up in the air and the Bears not playing until Monday night.
Steelers Implied Team Total: 22.5
Ben Roethlisberger ranks 27th in EPA per play and 31st in CPOE. What is left to say? It’s gross.
Last week I highlighted a disagreement between EPA per play and PFF’s grades on the Bears defense. EPA profiled the Bears as weak on the ground and PFF profiled them as weak through the air. In Week 8, the Bears played peacemaker, proving to be exceptionally weak in both areas. The Bears finished 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 30th in EPA allowed per rush. Overall the Bears rank 14th in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in EPA allowed per rush. The Steelers should be able to choose their method of attack. Based on the trend, we should expect them to choose the run.
The Steelers started the season playing similarly to last season, with a heavy dose of short Roethlisberger passes. They’ve since shifted to a run-heavy team. Since Week 5, the Steelers have a -5% PROE. For the season that would be tied with the Browns and 49ers for 30th in the NFL.
Najee Harris leads the NFL with 23.8 expected points per game. He’s considerably underperformed by 3.5 points per game. He’s set up for decent efficiency this week though with a good matchup. And the volume should continue to be there. Leaving aside the Steelers’ play selection, there should be plenty of rushing attempts given that the Steelers are favored by 6.5 points. Harris will still have to fight against inefficient quarterback play and an offensive line ranked 30th in adjusted line yards, but it’s not hard to see him having a huge game here.
I probably don’t talk about Diontae Johnson enough.
Diontae Johnson targets in non-injury impacted games with Big Ben since Week 1, 2020:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 1, 2021
10, 13, 15, 10, 11, 16, 13, 12, 7, 13, 14, 16, 10, 12, 13, 2, 13, 13
Johnson has an elite 2.29 YPRR... and is significantly underperforming his target opportunity. With his 10.0 aDOT, Johnson should have a YPT around 8.6 but is at just 7.5. So not only is his elite per route efficiency sustainable, it’s realistic to expect it to increase. Johnson has a 31% target share and a 40% air yard share. He is tied with Brandin Cooks for second in WOPR, behind only Davante Adams.
Johnson is dealing with very poor quarterback play, but at least that quarterback is extremely dialed into him. And Johnson is also dealing with a low-volume passing offense... but at least he is the engine of that offense. Johnson would be an elite WR1 with this profile in a different environment, but he still looks like a very strong WR2.
Chase Claypool‘s opportunity isn’t to Johnson’s level but it’s still very strong. Claypool has been targeted on 22% of his routes with a 12.4 aDOT. His impressive 1.94 YPRR is entirely sustainable based on his target profile.
Eric Ebron is likely to be out again, which means we should see Pat Freiermuth at a 60%+ route rate for the second straight week. Freiermuth has been targeted on a solid 19% of his routes with a 6.9 aDOT. He’s honestly not a great option, but you could do worse.
Sources
To write this article I relied on the following stats, metrics and grades.
- Implied Team Totals are calculated using the lines at PointsBet.
- Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
- Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
- I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency, but also for defensive efficiency.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- QB accuracy metric
- Data from rbsdm.com
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- Data from rbsdm.com
- QB accuracy metric
- Pass Rate over Expected
- Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
- Situation Neutral Pass Rate
- Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
- Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
- Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
- Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
- Snaps and Snap Share
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
- Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Target Share and Air Yard share
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Routes run per dropback
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Data from Pro Football Focus
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Yards Per Route Run
- A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
- This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
- It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
- It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
- Data from PFF
- Target per Route Run
- TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
- TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
- Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
- Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
- TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
- Expected Fantasy Points.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.
