Well folks, we’re in it now—again.
On Thursday night, the 2022 NFL season will kick off in Los Angeles with what could be a Super Bowl preview when the Buffalo Bills head to SoFi Stadium to face the defending champion Rams. It’s a game with subplots galore, whether it’s the duel at quarterback between Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford of the Rams, two of the NFL’s best receivers in Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs or two of the NFL’s most talent-rich defenses.
It should be a great game, but it presents a problem for fantasy managers—one that is something of a theme in Week 1.
Of the top eight defenses this year in terms of average draft position at Fantasy Pros, Fully half open the season with a relatively tough matchup. In addition to the Rams and Bills squaring off, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys will open the season against one another at AT&T Stadium.
Of the group, the Rams are the “best” matchup—Los Angeles finished 18th in fantasy points surrendered to defenses last year. But the Cowboys, Buccaneers and Bills all ranked in the bottom six in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position last year.
This isn’t to say fantasy managers shouldn’t start those defenses this week. Dallas Tampa and Buffalo were all top-five defenses in some scoring systems last year, and the Rams were a top-12 unit. We also don’t necessarily know that they will struggle in Week 1. So much changes from year to year in the NFL that using the previous season’s matchup data can be tricky. Besides, fantasy managers didn’t spend a relatively early pick on a defense to sit them in Week 1.
But patience is advisable with these high-end units. Fantasy managers may have to swallow one iffy effort before fortunes change for the better.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Baltimore Ravens (at New York Jets)
A lot may change in the NFL from season to season, but one thing is seemingly ever-constant—the New York Jets struggling. The Jets took steps to improve the offense in the offseason, but with offensive tackle Mekhi Becton out for the season and quarterback Zach Wilson on the shelf with a bad knee, a Jets team that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to defenses last year will probably be rolling out 37-year-old Joe Flacco against his old team Sunday. The Ravens were decimated by injuries in the secondary last year, but two years ago Baltimore was seventh in the league in total defense and led the AFC in scoring defense.
San Francisco 49ers (at Chicago Bears)
The Niners made it to within a game of a second Super Bowl in three years last year not because of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, but because of a defense that ranked third in yards allowed, 10th in points allowed and sixth in the league with 48 sacks. But the 49ers were only a middling fantasy play, as San Francisco tallied just 20 takeaways. The Bears looked better offensively in the preseason than during last year’s disastrous final year under Matt Nagy, but we’re still talking about a team that was 24th in total offense, 27th in scoring offense, led the league with a whopping 58 sacks allowed and tied for the second-most giveaways (29) in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints (at Atlanta Falcons)
You don’t hear the Saints talked up all that often as one of the NFL’s best defensive football teams. But last year New Orleans finished the year seventh in total defense, fourth in scoring defense and seventh in fantasy points. In edge-rushers Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan, linebacker Demario Davis, cornerback Marshon Lattimore and safeties Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu, the Saints have talent at all three levels of the defense. Best of all for fantasy managers, the Saints open the 2022 campaign on the road against an Atlanta Falcons team that was 29th in total offense and 26th in scoring offense—and that was with Matt Ryan at quarterback instead of Marcus Mariota.
Indianapolis Colts (at Houston Texans)
There isn’t a team in the NFL more eager to hit the Field in Week 1 than the Indianapolis Colts. And there’s reason to think the Colts are going to start the season strong. The Colts weren’t a great team last season in terms of yards allowed (343.2) or sacks (33), but the Colts led the AFC with 33 takeaways, ranked ninth in points allowed per game (21.5) and finished the year sixth in fantasy points. The addition of edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue should add some pop to the pass-rush, and Sunday Indianapolis travels to face a Texans team that was dead last in total offense, 30th in scoring offense and gave up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.
Denver Broncos (at Seattle Seahawks)
The Denver Broncos have a decent dup of edge-rushers in Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory. The inside linebacker duo of Jonas Griffith and Josey Jewell isn’t great, but they aren’t awful either. In cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain II and veteran safeties Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons, the Broncos have one of the best secondary quartets in the NFL. But what gets the Broncos onto the “No Doubters” list this week has as much to do with what the Seahawks don’t have as what the Broncos do. With Russell Wilson now playing for Denver, the Seahawks have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the entire NFL. They will likely be an opponent to target all season long.
Miami Dolphins (vs. New England Patriots)
In several statistical categories last year, the Dolphins were average defensively. The team ranked 15th in yards allowed. 16th in points allowed. But from a fantasy perspective, Miami was much better—fifth in the NFL with 48 sacks. Ninth in the league in takeaways. And third among all team defenses in fantasy points. The Dolphins have a new head coach in Mike McDaniel, but he retained defensive coordinator Josh Boyer. But the most attractive thing about the Dolphins in Week 1 may well be their opponent. Simply put, the Patriots have not looked good offensively in the preseason with Matt Patricia calling the plays. If that continues into the regular season, the Pats could be a matchup to target this year.
New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins)
There are certain constants in the universe. Death. Taxes. And the New England Patriots playing well defensively under Bill Belichick. Last year, Darth Hoodie’s stormtroopers were fourth in total defense, second in scoring defense, tied for third in takeaways and second to the Dallas Cowboys in fantasy points. Yes, with Tyreek Hill now in Miami, the Dolphins have assembled a pretty impressive squad for Mike McDaniel. But there isn’t a better defensive game-planner in the league than Belichick, and until we see Tua Tagovailoa take full advantage of that Firepower a Dolphins team that was 11th in fantasy points allowed to defenses in 2021 can’t be viewed as a matchup to avoid.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Philadelphia Eagles (at Detroit Lions)
Frankly, it may not be long until the Eagles defense works its way into “No Doubter” territory—especially with three favorable matchups in four weeks to open the season. The Eagles added all kinds of talent on defense in the offseason, whether it was defensive tackle Jordan Davis and edge-rusher Haason Reddick up front, Nakobe Dean at linebacker or safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and cornerback James Bradberry on the back end. After barely cracking the top-15 in fantasy points last year, the Eagles were overlooked in quite a few fantasy drafts. But managers who threw a late dart Philly’s way are about to be glad they did so.
Cleveland Browns (at Carolina Panthers)
In terms of yards allowed last year, the Browns were one of the better defenses in the league, checking in fifth at 311.5 yards per contest. Spearheaded by star edge-rusher Myles Garrett, the Browns were also ninth in the league with 43 sacks. But the Browns were just so-so in points allowed (13th) and positively mediocre with just 19 takeaways, so they finished outside the top 15 in fantasy points. The addition of Baker Mayfield under center could mean offensive improvement for the Panthers in 2022, but we’re still talking about a team that surrendered the most fantasy points in the NFC to defenses. It’s just the beginning of a stretch of four consecutive solid matchups for the Browns defense, making them an ideal streaming play to open the season.
Carolina Panthers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Much like the aforementioned Browns, the Panthers were quietly a very good team in terms of yards allowed per game last season. In fact, no team in the NFC allowed fewer. But a lack of splash plays rendered Carolina an afterthought in fantasy leagues, with the Panthers landing outside the top-20. However, there’s a good chance that in Week 1 at least, the Panthers will be both a good NFL defense and a strong fantasy option. The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out Jacoby Brissett under center for the first 11 games of the 2022 season, and if the preseason was any indication Cleveland is going to struggle to generate offense. Take advantage of that.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase get all the run in the Queen City, but the Bengals have assembled a nice array of talent on defense as well. The Bengals have a pair of excellent edge-rushers in Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson. An underrated young inside linebacker in Logan Wilson. And maybe the best one-two punch at safety in the entire NFL in Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates. However, this play is more about Cincinnati’s opponent than the Bengals themselves. Assuming that Cincy’s high-octane offense has some success Sunday, the Steelers are going to have to throw the ball. And if that’s the case, Pittsburgh’s woeful offensive line is going to be exposed.
Washington Commanders (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
There wasn’t a defense in the entire National Football League that underperformed in a more spectacular fashion last season than the Commanders. Washington was the fourth defense off draft boards last year on average, but what followed was a hot mess—the Commanders were 22nd in total defense, 25th in the league in scoring defense, 24th in the league in takeaways, and 27th in fantasy points. There are questions facing the team this year with Chase Young opening 2022 on the PUP list, and the Jaguars should be a better offensive football team this season than last. But no team gave up more fantasy points to defenses last year than the Jags, and Washington is a more talented unit than last year’s numbers suggest.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati Bengals)
For years, the Steelers have been viewed as one of the formidable defenses in the NFL. And in one respect at least last year, the Steelers were—Pittsburgh paced the league with 55 sacks, marking the fifth straight season that the Steelers finished no lower than second in the NFL in that category. But the Steelers also fielded the worst run defense in the league and finished the year outside the top 20 in fantasy points. The last time the Steelers traveled to Paul Brown stadium, Joe Mixon rushed for 165 yards and the Bengals dropped 41 points on the Steelers in a game where Pittsburgh logged just two sacks and a single takeaway.
