Just call me McMuffin—because one week into the 2020 season I already have egg on my face.
For a good part of the summer, I talked up the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles as excellent team defense plays in Week 1. It wasn’t hard to see why. The Colts faced a Jacksonville Jaguars team that ranked 20th in total offense in 2019. The Eagles had an even better matchup—the Washington Football Team sported the NFC’s worst offense last year. Both teams ranked inside the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
So what happened? You-know-what happened. Both the Eagles and Colts gave up 27 points apiece. The two defenses accounted for seven sacks, but didn’t force a single turnover. Not one. And both the Eagles and Colts got beat.
So did more than a few fantasy squads who counted on those defenses.[[ad:athena]]
The thing is though, there’s not really anything I’d have done differently. One of the biggest perils of Week 1 is that the information we use to determine matchup viability is based off last year’s information. What we think we know and what we actually know are often two vastly different things.
And I still don’t believe in the Jaguars or Washington offensively. Not after one game. As dangerous as it can be to trust old information, doing so with a small sample size can be equally treacherous.
There’s nothing to be done but dust ourselves off and get back after it. Combine last week’s results with last year’s data to try to find a middle-ground that is more fact than fiction.
Now does anyone have any paper towels?
THE NO-DOUBTERS
San Francisco 49ers (at New York Jets)
The 49ers were another team that disappointed in Week 1, falling 24-20 at home to the Arizona Cardinals in a game where Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins both went off on the NFC’s best defense from a year ago. However, if ever there was a “get right” matchup for team defenses, it’s playing the New York Jets. Last year the Jets allowed 52 sacks and the most fantasy points in the NFL to team defenses. In a Week 1 loss to Buffalo, the Jets managed just 254 yards of total offense, turned the ball over twice and gave up three sacks. Oh, and Jets tailback Le’Veon Bell is hurt and unlikely to play.
Buffalo Bills (at Miami Dolphins)
The Bills played well defensively last week against the New York Jets—especially in the first half. The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, struggled offensively, posting just 269 total yards and one touchdown while turning it over three times against the New England Patriots. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker suffered a hamstring injury against the Patriots that leaves his Week 2 status in doubt. If Parker can’t go Sunday, that just about guarantees that Preston Williams will be shadowed by Tre’Davious White—and that the Dolphins are going to struggle to move the football again.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs, Denver Broncos)
Had it not been for the otherworldly season turned in by the Patriots last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers would have been the top fantasy defense—and with good reason. In fantasy football, defensive scoring is usually tied to big plays, and the Steelers led the NFL in both sacks and takeaways last season. Denver ranked right in the middle of the league last year in fantasy points given up to defenses, but the Broncos have already suffered a significant injury on offense when wideout Courtland Sutton hurt his shoulder late in camp. There are only a few teams Pittsburgh isn’t a no-doubt start against—and Denver isn’t one of them.
Baltimore Ravens (at Houston Texans)
The Houston Texans need a hug. As if it wasn’t bad enough that the team had to open the season with a do-over of their last game in 2019, in Week 2 Houston gets to host the Baltimore Ravens in another rematch from last season. The last time the Ravens and Texans played, Baltimore allowed less than 250 yards of offense, sacked Deshaun Watson seven times and forced two turnovers in a 41-7 beatdown. This game won’t necessarily be as lopsided, but given how impressive the Ravens were defensively in Week 1 they are about as close to matchup-proof right now as a defense gets.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Los Angeles Chargers)
When people talk about the Kansas City Chiefs, most of the attention is rightfully paid to Patrick Mahomes and the offense. But the Chiefs have also quietly assembled a solid defense. Against the Houston Texans in the season opener, Kansas City got to Deshaun Watson four times, forced a turnover, and only allowed one non-garbage-time touchdown. The Los Angeles Chargers rode their defense and run game to a Week 1 win in Cincinnati, but Tyrod Taylor is going to have the throw the ball to keep up with the Chiefs. That rarely ends well.
New Orleans Saints (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Raise your hand if you thought the New Orleans Saints would be the highest-scoring fantasy defense among the teams that played on Sunday. Now put your hand down—lying is a sin. A pick-six by Janoris Jenkins inflated that fantasy stat line, but the Saints did a good job defensively against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers—New Orleans forced three turnovers and got to Brady an equal number of times. The Raiders rode running back Josh Jacobs to 34 points in Week 1, but that was against a Carolina defense that is one of the league’s worst. The sledding will be much harder in the home opener in Vegas.
Chicago Bears (vs. New York Giants)
For much of last Sunday’s opener in Detroit, the Bears did not look good—Chicago fell behind 23-6 before peeling off three unanswered fourth-quarter touchdowns to stun the Lions 27-23. The Bears also weren’t especially sharp defensively—the team allowed over 425 total yards and managed just a single sack of Matthew Stafford. But Week 2 sets up well for a rebound from the Monsters of the Midway—the New York Giants were eighth in fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses in 2019 and New York’s offensive line looked atrocious in Week 1 against the Steelers.
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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
At the time of this writing, the Titans had yet to play their season-opener in Denver. But unless the Titans completely collapse in Denver (which is unlikely), this recommendation has less to do with the Titans than it does their Week 2 opponent. That isn’t to say that the Titans weren’t a decent defensive team in 2019—they finished the season as a low-end weekly starter in most fantasy scoring systems. But I’m just not sold on the Jaguars not being a bad football team based off what happened last Sunday in Jacksonville. Let’s see if they can do it on the road.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Washington Football Team)
Quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins got most of the kudos for Arizona’s Week 1 upset of the San Francisco 49ers, but the defense quietly had a good game as well. The Cardinals didn’t force a turnover, but Arizona sacked Jimmy Garoppolo three times, allowed just two third-down conversions on 11 attempts and made a key goal-line stand in the first half. Washington pulled a rabbit out of the hat after falling behind the Eagles 17-0 last week, but this game is on the road against a much better offensive squad. A reality check is coming for the WFT in Week 2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina Panthers)
At first glance, the Tampa defense appears to have been lit up by Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. But one of the Saints touchdowns came on a pick-six, and Tampa only surrendered 271 yards of offense. This week’s home opener brings with it a much different caliber of opponent. The Carolina Panthers were fourth in fantasy points given up to defenses last year, and while the arrival of Teddy Bridgewater has made the offense better an offensive line that tied for the NFL lead with 58 sacks allowed remains a major concern. Shaquil Barrett is bound to have a day in this game.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
If you watched the Clowns get boat-raced by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, then you may be wondering if I have taken up a new hobby—like say day-drinking. As a Browns fan, the thought has admittedly crossed my mind. But there’s quite a bit of difference between playing a 14-2 team led by the reigning NFL MVP and a 2-14 team led by a rookie making his second start after no preseason. In a Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati tallied fewer than 300 yards of offense, scored just one touchdown, surrendered three sacks, and turned it over twice.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)
Given that 77 points were scored in the season opener between the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay’s defense might not appear to be that appealing an option. But it’s worth pointing out that much of Minnesota’s offensive success last week came with the game out of hand. It’s even more important to point out that Sunday’s home opener is against a Detroit Lions team that just imploded at home against the Chicago Bears. Look for the Green Bay edge-rushers to have some success pressuring Matthew Stafford Sunday—and for the Pack to produce at least a decent statistical stat line.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Washington Football Team (at Arizona Cardinals)
Washington was able to pull out that upset of the Eagles last week in large part because the pass rush was completely off the chain. Keyed by a big debut from No. 2 overall pick Chase Young (who had 1.5 sacks), Washington got to Carson Wentz eight times and turned him over three times, stunning fantasy managers with one of the most impressive efforts of Week 1. However, there’s a difference between getting after Wentz behind a patchwork offensive line and chasing down a quarterback in Kyler Murray who just torched the best defense in the conference through the air and on the ground.
