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Now for the sentence designed in a military laboratory to maximize nausea in Indianapolis Colts fans: The Jacob Eason era has begun.
Or maybe it hasn’t. Eason, in the aftermath of Carson Wentz’s foot surgery, could lose his job this summer to rookie Sam Ehlinger. Or maybe the Colts trade for Marcus Mariota. Or Gardner Minshew. Or Nick Foles.
Wentz, as you know, is out for at least five weeks. He could miss as much as three months, meaning he would make his Colts debut in late October or early November. By that point, of course, the season could be a lost cause. There may be little reason to rush him back. [[ad:athena]]
Jesse Morse, a sports medicine and regenerative medicine specialist at the Osteopathic Center in Miami, said Wentz’s “history of struggles to return after previous injuries” means there’s a “good chance” the quarterback returns somewhere between Week 4 and Week 8. Without setbacks in Wentz’s recovery, Morse said returning to the field before Week 6 is “unlikely.”
The below analysis will be instantly inapplicable the minute Indy signs a veteran QB to take over for Eason. But for now, according to head coach Frank Reich, Eason is the guy. We must adjust our ranks accordingly.
Wide Receivers
Second-year wideout Michael Pittman was impressing coaches and beat writers and rising up fantasy draft boards before Wentz heard the pop in his foot during a late-July practice. Pittman was being drafted alongside the likes of Antonio Brown, Robby Anderson, and Laviska Shenault. A breakout year was underway for the big-bodied receiver out of USC who came on at the end of his rookie year after being hampered with injury throughout the fall.
No more. Probably it doesn’t matter if Pittman makes a second-year leap -- the most sought-after leap in fantasy football -- as long as Eason is under center for Indianapolis. This is the Eason who hasn’t played live football in three of the past four years, the Eason who was 32nd percentile in completion rate and 21st percentile in yards per attempt in college.
Pittman, for now, is best suited as a late-round pick with the desperate hope the Colts sign a veteran who can operate a somewhat functional offense for the season’s first half.
T.Y. Hilton, entering his age-31 season, needed things to break just right to maintain some semblance of fantasy relevance in 2021. The team’s acquisition of Wentz -- never hesitant to chuck it downfield -- was Hilton’s best-case scenario. Eason represents a major hit to Hilton’s fantasy usefulness. Perhaps Hilton can be a big-play threat with a spiked week or three in the season’s second half, assuming Wentz is back to full health. A 12th rounder before the Wentz injury, Hilton shouldn’t be drafted in 12-team formats as long as Eason is under center. The freewheeling Minshew would make Hilton slightly more interesting.
The Parris Campbell comeback tour is refunding tickets following the Wentz news. But as the team’s primary slot receiver running more intermediate routes, Campbell probably has a better chance than Hilton or Pittman to see catchable targets from Eason. The Colts coaching staff is excited about the perpetually injured Campbell, who should -- at worst -- see a ton of snaps in 2021. A conservative passing game could make Campbell the most productive Colts receiver for however long Wentz is sidelined. Not that that means a whole lot.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor, per Colts beat writers, has been Eason’s favorite target in his limited first-team training camp reps. While this doesn’t inspire great confidence for the team’s offense, it’s notable for fantasy purposes.
Eason’s check-down prowess is more of a boost for Nyheim Hines than it is for Taylor. Hines has been limited in Colts training camp with a minor hip injury. He was back Tuesday, catching passes out of the backfield and looking “great,” according to the Indianapolis Star’s Jim Ayello. That Hines won’t be treated as anything close to a three-down back shouldn’t stop fantasy managers from drafting him in the 11th or 12th round of 12-team leagues. The shifty back -- Pro Football Focus’ top graded pass-catching RB in 2020 -- was second on the team in targets and first in receptions last year. Drafters looking for usable backs in the closing rounds could do far worse than Hines in PPR formats. If Eason indeed starts the season for Indy, I see plenty of cheap PPR points in Hines’ future. Apologies to the standard scoring cavepeople.
Back to Taylor: Wentz’s absence is a disaster for the second-year back, who was mostly useless for fantasy managers until the 2020 season’s final six weeks. Opposing defenses are sure to stack guys at or near the line of scrimmage, unthreatened by Eason, knowing the Colts would love nothing more than to keep the ball on the ground. This is a highly precarious situation for the second-year back. Taylor wasn’t all that good at generating yardage after initial contact in his rookie campaign, ranking 27th in average yards after contact, about the same as teammate Jordan Wilkins. Taylor’s ability to break off long runs will be put to quite the test while facing stacked boxed. He was third in breakaway yardage last season (trailing only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb), a feat that will be near impossible to repeat in a Wentz-less offense. Then there’s the matter of game script: Will the Colts being able to create enough neutral and positive script for Taylor to see 15-20 rushing attempts every week? The answer is no.
Drafting Taylor in the first round -- assuming Eason start for the Colts -- requires an exuberant leap of faith. Sorry to get religious.
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Tight Ends
The Colts’ tight ends were always going to be a pain in our collective rear ends. Reich’s tight end group largely split snaps, routes, and targets in 2020, rendering their combined 119 targets useless for fantasy players. We’re likely to witness a repeat of this maddening usage in 2021 with the addition of rookie TE Kylen Granson, who has, like Madonna, “justified” Reich’s “love.”
Anyone running intermediate routes for an Eason-led Colts offense is more likely to see targets than pass catchers lining up on the outside. I suppose there’s some universe in which Granson -- who was drafted to catch passes, not to block -- could scrape by on short throws from Eason. Mo Alie-Cox truthers have come to grips with their guy being a standout blocker. He’ll retain that role in 2021. But none of the Colts tight ends hold much value for as long as Eason is starting.
