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Popular perception says a kicker’s fantasy production is based entirely on luck. Playing the right kicker on the right week is a crapshoot, the thinking goes, a spin of the roulette wheel. You hope it lands on red and shrug when it doesn’t.
Folks who abide by this thinking are somehow always unlucky.
Like (almost) all popular perceptions, this is incorrect. It’s based on the endless frustration of the fantasy manager who bases their kicker selection on the wrong factors. Choosing a kicker based on a team’s prior week red zone struggles doesn’t qualify as good process. Neither does playing a kicker because he can boot the pigskin a long way. [[ad:athena]]
Kicker accuracy doesn’t matter. Kicker range doesn’t matter. Opportunity is the only thing that matters in finding a fantasy viable kicker. We chase field goal tries at any cost. If a team is likely to see positive game script -- the kind that allows for field goal attempts throughout a game, not just in the first half -- we want the kicker attached to that offense. Pursue attempts and the points will follow.
And if you still somehow don’t believe me -- if your fingers become lodged in your ears when kicker analysis is in the air -- check out 4for4.com’s Jennifer Eakins thoroughly debunking the myth that kicker scoring is random.
Just as we’re wary of the wide receiver or quarterback who posts an unsustainable touchdown rate, we should be aware of which kickers were fortunate in their field goal attempt totals last year. Knowing which kickers became every-week fantasy starters due to unsustainable opportunity is an excellent place to start in evaluating this year’s batch of kickers.
Below is a look at kickers’ actual field goal attempts and their expected field goal attempts. In 2020, we expected a field goal try every 191.5 yards an offense generated. That’s about 20 yards more per attempt than we saw in 2019. In an era of gaudy offensive production, that number is likely to rise in 2021.
If a kicker’s expected field goal attempts are under their actual attempts, we can consider him lucky. If his expected attempts are over his actual number, he might be considered unfortunate. Kickers who were well over their expected number have considerable red flags for the coming season. No kickers on the below teams should be written off for fantasy purposes in 2021; nearly every kicker has streaming value at some point during the NFL’s four month schedule. These regression numbers should, however, inform your choice on who to select as a plug-and-play starter.
We’ll start with teams that overperformed in field goal attempts last year. You’ll notice many of fantasy’s top kickers came from this batch of teams.
Team | 2020 expected FG attempts | 2020 actual FG attempts | Difference |
Dolphins | 28.3 | 39 | 10.7 |
Cowboys | 31 | 41 | 10 |
Falcons | 30.8 | 40 | 9.2 |
Football Team | 26.5 | 34 | 7.5 |
Bengals | 26.7 | 34 | 7.3 |
Broncos | 28 | 35 | 7 |
Giants | 25 | 32 | 7 |
Panthers | 29.2 | 36 | 6.8 |
Colts | 31.6 | 37 | 5.4 |
Jets | 23.4 | 28 | 4.6 |
Bears | 27.7 | 32 | 4.3 |
Raiders | 32 | 35 | 3 |
Chargers | 32 | 33 | 1 |
Bills | 33.1 | 34 | 0.9 |
Patriots | 27.3 | 28 | 0.7 |
- That Jason Sanders split the uprights on eight of his nine attempts of over 50 yards and kicks one of the prettiest balls in the NFL shouldn’t entice you to jump ahead of your league mates and get the Miami kicker a few rounds before your draft ends. If Sanders is there in the second to last round -- or, of course, in the final round -- go ahead and grab him. If not, leave him to someone else -- someone who might not be aware that the Dolphins were 10.7 field goal tries over expectation in 2020. Upgrades to the team’s offense and an offseason of maturation and improvement for Tua Tagovailoa could help the Dolphins improve on their middling 58.3 percent touchdown rate on red zone possessions, trimming Sanders’ opportunity in 2021. Fantasy players shouldn’t chase Sanders, who still profiles as an every-week starter in 12-team formats.
- Daniel Carlson inexplicably finished 2020 as a top-four fantasy kicker, somehow attempting more field goals in Vegas losses than in Silver and Black wins. That’s not the way it’s supposed to work. Carlson, who will likely be the third or fourth kicker off the draft board this summer thanks to his strong 2020 campaign, is an iffy fantasy prospect on Jon Gruden’s flailing Raiders.
- Between last year’s production and his offseason workout videos, Younghoe Koo in 2021 is going to be one of the most over-drafted kickers of this or any other century. Not since career-prime Justin Tucker have we seen fantasy players so eager to take a kicker, never mind that Koo was a last-round afterthought or waiver wire add in many 2020 leagues. New Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith’s offenses were brutally efficient in Tennessee -- the Titans were second best in red zone touchdown scoring last year -- severely limiting the team’s field goal tries. The Titans had the tenth fewest field goal attempts in 2020 and the second fewest in 2019. If Smith’s efficient system translates in Atlanta, Koo is more likely a streaming option than an every-week starter. Last year’s Falcons had the third highest field goal per drive rate of the past 20 NFL seasons, according to Sharp Football Analysis’ Rich Hribar. That’s remarkable. I’m not saying Koo isn’t good. I’m saying it doesn’t matter.
- I take no pleasure in reporting Rodrigo Blankenship -- like Koo -- is going to be overdrafted this summer. The goggles, the Lego fascination, the impressive rookie season -- Goatenship is a quirky dude who has the people’s attention. A strong second half in 2020 led to Blankenship finishing as fantasy’s sixth highest scoring kicker, thanks in part to being 5.4 field goal tries over expectation. That, Carson Wentz being a walking, talking question mark for the Colts, and the team bringing in competition for Blankenship makes me bearish on the bespectacled kicker in 2021.
- Tyler Bass is as likely as any kicker to finish 2021 as fantasy football’s top kicker. He was last year’s K3 while his expected and actual field goal tries aligned almost perfectly. That’s a good thing. Any kicker attached to the Bills high-octane offense is going to be an every-week starter in any format. Bass was just getting started in 2020.
- Whoever seizes the Chargers’ starting gig has a good chance of becoming an every-week fantasy option. LA was 11th in field goal attempts in 2020 despite finishing 20th in point differential, just above the lowly Raiders and Vikings. The team’s Justin Herbert-led offense is going to once again churn out yards on the regular, creating the conditions we seek for our fantasy kicker. Barring a training camp or preseason collapse, Michael Badgley -- the unfortunately nicknamed Money Badger -- will be useful for fantasy purposes in 2021. Forget that Badgley missed nine field goals and three extra points in 2020. Accuracy doesn’t matter.
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Team | Expected FG attempts | Actual FG attempts | Difference |
Texans | 31.5 | 31 | -0.5 |
Bucs | 32.1 | 31 | -1.1 |
Lions | 29.2 | 28 | -1.2 |
Ravens | 30.3 | 29 | -1.3 |
Rams | 31.5 | 30 | -1.5 |
Cardinals | 32.1 | 30 | -2.1 |
Jaguars | 27.2 | 25 | -2.2 |
Saints | 31.5 | 28 | -3.5 |
Steelers | 27.9 | 24 | -3.9 |
49ers | 30.9 | 26 | -4.9 |
Titans | 33.1 | 28 | -5.1 |
Seahawks | 30.8 | 24 | -6.8 |
Browns | 30.9 | 24 | -6.9 |
Chiefs | 34.7 | 27 | -7.7 |
Vikings | 32.9 | 22 | 10.9 |
Packers | 32.5 | 16 | 16.5 |
- It doesn’t take long to realize why Harrison Butker fell from fantasy football grace in 2020. KC’s dominant offense left nearly eight field goal attempts on the field, limiting Butker to the 24th most field goal tries -- barely more than the Jaguars. The Chiefs weren’t particularly good in the red zone (16th in red zone TD rate) so we might expect Butker’s attempts to bounce back a bit in 2021. When in doubt, target a kicker in a high-scoring, yard-creating offense. Butker will fit that description for as long as Patrick Mahomes is upright and breathing. We’re only a year removed from Butker finishing fourth in field goal attempts. There’s a chance he’ll be overlooked this summer.
- Justin Tucker’s down year can’t be explained away by the massive gap between his expected and actual attempts. Tucker’s opportunity has plummeted in the Lamar Jackson era: He was 20th in field goal tries in 2019 and 18th in 2020. He happened to make 28 of his 29 kicks in 2019, good enough to finish as a top-three fantasy kicker. He missed three kicks last year and saw a drop in extra point attempts; hence, the K8 finish. The Jackson-era Ravens -- driven by an analytical approach that emphasizes touchdown scoring and fourth down aggressiveness -- are not going to create fantasy friendly conditions for the greatest kicker of all time. I’m sorry to be the one to tell you this. Head coach John Harbaugh was rated by Football Outsiders as the fourth most aggressive coach on fourth downs in 2020, outranking even the ultra-aggressive Matt LaFleur. Even so, Tucker could profile as a low-end every-week starter in 12-team leagues. Tucker’s days of fantasy dominance are probably over.
- The Browns’ field goal attempt underperformance was due largely to the team’s fourth down aggressiveness. Head coach Kevin Stefanski, according to Football Outsiders, was the league’s third most aggressive play caller on fourth down in 2020. With a lethal rushing attack and a suddenly efficient QB, it makes sense. Cleveland ran roughshod over opponents in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 73.4 percent of their possessions inside the 20. Cody Parkey or Chase McLaughlin -- whoever gets the Week 1 call -- could provide sneaky fantasy value in a Cleveland offense that doesn’t face much negative script.
- One would think the Bucs could produce a top-flight fantasy kicker, seeing that Tampa hardly ever sees negative game script and Tom Brady carves up enemy defenses with his best skill position grouping in his 47-year NFL career. Ryan Succop was last year’s K7, tied with Tucker, despite being 1.1 field goal tries under expectation. The Bucs attempted the 14th most field goals in 2020 while gaining the seventh most yards, while finishing 11th in red zone TD efficiency. Everything here tells us Succop was on the unlucky side in 2020. With a little less touchdown fortune in 2021, Brady’s Bucs could recreate a retro Stephen Gostkowski season for Succop. He should be drafted in every 12-team league this summer.
- Matt Prater, who signed with Arizona this offseason, has piqued my interest. Not only were the Cardinals below field goal expectation in 2020, but two short seasons ago, Zane Gonzalez was fantasy’s fifth highest scoring kicker in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. The big-footed Prater should see plenty of opportunity in a borderline elite Cardinals Offense. One concern for Prater could be Kingsbury’s newfound fourth down aggression: He was rated by Football Outsiders as the most aggressive coach in 2020.
- Matt Gay will be among the Rams to benefit from the team’s gigantic quarterback upgrade. The former fifth round pick was fantasy football’s No. 5 kicker from Week 11 -- when LA signed him -- to Week 17. He notched multiple field goal tries in six of his seven games with the Rams and made all 16 of his extra points. It wasn’t that long ago -- 2018, to be precise -- that Greg Zuerlein had the highest points per game among kickers thanks largely to Sean McVay’s yards-churning offense. Matthew Stafford under center for LA should create fine fantasy conditions for Gay in 2021.
- We know why Mason Crosby was a bottom-barrel fantasy option in 2020: Green Bay was absurdly aggressive on fourth down in field goal range -- except when it counted the most. Crosby is a fantasy non-factor if Aaron Rodgers extends his holdout into the regular season, and he’s an iffy matchup play if Rodgers returns and the Packers continue forgoing field goals inside the 30 yard line. Matt LaFleur’s coaching approach is not going to produce a fantasy-viable kicker.
