Week 1 of the 2014 season was just as crazy as we have come to expect. Heavy favorites went down, fantasy studs struggled and several players came out of nowhere to have huge games. While it is important not to overreact to the normal week-to-week craziness, there were some important fantasy football takeaways from the opening week of the NFL season.
Stock Up
Le’Veon Bell
The two major concerns surrounding Le’Veon Bell this draft season were both put to bed Week 1.
The first was the idea that offseason acquisition LeGarrette Blount would seriously eat into Bell’s workload. That was not the case on Sunday, with Bell out-touching Blount 27-4 and garnering 75 percent of the Steelers’ carries. Bell averaged 22.2 touches a game last year and saw 71 percent of the Steelers’ carries when healthy, and it looks like he has a great chance at matching those numbers this season.
More important than the work, though, is how Bell looked. He was noticeably leaner and quicker against the Browns than he was in 2013, and that newfound athleticism allowed him to be much more efficient with his touches. Bell averaged 5.2 yards a carry and 7.3 yards a touch against Cleveland after only averaging 3.5 YPC and 4.4 YPT last season.
After one week, it looks like Bell will retain the majority of his workload and be more efficient with his touches. That is a recipe for a high-end fantasy running back, and should make those brave enough to have invested in Bell very happy. I am buying if someone is selling.
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One of the bright spots in a fairly underwhelming Baltimore offensive performance was Justin Forsett, who took over the early-down back duties after Bernard Pierce was benched for a mix of fumbling and ineptitude. Forsett took advantage of the opportunity, rushing for 70 yards and a touchdown on only 11 carries. Now with Ray Rice released, it appears Forsett will be given a shot to run away with the starting role in Baltimore.
Whether he can hold onto that role for the entire season is a different question. A 29-year-old journeyman, Forsett has never had more than 118 carries in a season, and has been used primarily as a change-of-pace back over the last several years.
Though the Ravens appear not to trust Pierce, it is hard to believe Forsett will be their primary back for the rest of the season, and I seriously wonder if the Ravens would have pulled the plug on Pierce so quickly if they knew Rice would be released the next day. It is easy to trust Forsett for one game, but it something completely different to start him for 15.
Forsett is worth an add simply because of opportunity, but I doubt I am willing to spend enough FAAB dollars to get him. Lorenzo Taliaferro, on the other hand…
I was among those wary of Brandin Cooks’ hype this draft season because I was unsure how many targets he could command in the Saints’ traditionally spread-the-wealth offense. It is safe to say those concerns were lessened in Week 1.
Cooks came out on fire against the Falcons, hauling in three passes for 48 yards on the first drive of the game and finishing the first half with 86 total yards and a touchdown. He only managed one catch after the break, but his usage early in the game showed the Saints have made getting Cooks involved in the offense a priority.
If that continues once Kenny Stills (quad) returns to the field, then Stills will be a weekly WR3 with the upside for more. He is an obvious pickup in the 11% of Yahoo! Leagues he is still available, and Cooks is a decent trade target if his owner is not yet buying his role in the offense.
The hype train for Terrance West slowed down considerably after he only managed 2.7 yards per carry in the preseason, but an injury to Ben Tate that should keep him out at least one week along with an impressive 16 carry, 100 yard performance has made West a fantasy darling once again.
The only negative news for West on the day was the two touchdowns vultured away by fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell. West comfortably out-touched Crowell, though, and it is hard to view the two touchdowns as anything more than a minor fluke considering Crowell was not even in the Browns’ game plan. West will be the starter if Tate is unable to play, and Crowell will be more of a change-of-pace option.
That said, both are worthy of a pickup, with West worthy of No. 1 waiver priority consideration in the 61% of Yahoo! leagues he is still available.
Mike Wallace was targeted 11 times against Darrelle Revis and the Patriots, catching seven for 81 yards and a touchdown. The stat line was impressive, but Wallace demeanor was the real story. He actually looked happy to play in new OC Bill Lazor’s offense, fighting for yards and competing for the ball in the air.
The day was still not perfect. Ryan Tannehill missed Wallace twice on deep passes, at least one of which would have been a touchdown, and Wallace lost a fumble early the game. Still, it was a very promising performance.
Wallace looks safe as a low-end WR2 in Miami’s new, more creative offense, and if Tannehill can ever learn how to throw a deep ball, he could be even more than that. I am buying Wallace.
Stash and See
These are players who may not be worthy of a start Week 2, but certainly are worthy of a roster spot.
With Bernard Pierce is in the doghouse and Justin Forsett likely unable to handle the load, Lorenzo Taliaferro is a very interesting add. He could be the No. 1 running back in Baltimore in the near future. … Allen Hurns caught two long touchdowns early, but was held in check after the first quarter. His role is uncertain once Cecil Shorts (hamstring) returns, so do not overpay for him. … Brian Quick’s upside his limited by the offense, but he was the one Rams’ offensive player that actually showed up against the Vikings. He has some breakout potential. … Carlos Hyde only saw seven carries, but looked like the better player than Frank Gore Week 1. Gore will continue to lead the 49ers’ backfield, but Hyde’s role should expand. … Isaiah Crowell will likely serve as the change-of-pace option if Ben Tate is out, but he has the talent to be a top-level running back. … Doug Martin may play Week 2, but Bobby Rainey needs to be added. He is the clear-cut No. 2 option in Tampa. … Toby Gerhart should be good to go Week 2, but Denard Robinson needs to be owned.
Stock Down
Lamar Miller ran for 59 yards on 11 carries and added four catches for 19 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots Week 1. The stat line paints too favorable a picture, though.
After losing a fumble in the second quarter, Miller was out-carried 20-8 by Knowshon Moreno, and operated primarily as the passing-down back. That usage will not lead to much fantasy success regardless of how effective Miller is with his touches.
If you can sell Miller on the back of his stat line, do it immediately. Moreno may run away with the Dolphins’ running back job.
The knee injury is obviously the biggest concern for Doug Martin, but it looks like he will miss limited time if any. The bigger concern is how ineffective Martin was against the Panthers.
Martin only gained nine yards on nine carries against Carolina, and did not look much better than the player that averaged 3.6 yard per carry last season. In fact, aside from the 251 yard explosion against the Raiders in 2012, Martin has now averaged 3.87 yards per carry on 430 career totes.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line is atrocious, and Martin does not appear to be the type of player than can overcome poor line play. He will remain an RB2 when healthy because of workload, but the upside is just not there. I am selling if anyone is buying.
Lost in the Ray Rice sage over the offseason was just how bad Bernard Pierce was last season. He only averaged 2.9 yards per carry in 2013, and was widely ineffective in the two games he saw extensive work.
That lack of production continued in Week 1. Pierce earned the start, but only managed 14 yards on six carries, and was benched after losing a fumble. To add insult to injury, Justin Forsett gained 70 yards on only 11 carries after replacing Pierce.
The release of Rice opens up an opportunity for Pierce. Forsett is not equipped to handle a starting load, and Lorenzo Taliaferro may not be ready for prime time. That said, there is nothing on tape the last two seasons that suggest Pierce can be a consistently effective running back. If someone still values him as an RB2, sell away.
After a disappointing 73-988-4 stat line in 2013, a new season and a new offense was supposed to bring back the old Victor Cruz this year. Monday night’s performance, however, has to damper some of those return-to-form expectations.
Cruz was not only on a different page than Eli Manning Monday night, but seemed to reading from a different book. He only caught only two of his six targets, and gained only 24 yards as the entire Giants’ offense looked out of sync.
New York’s offense may improve as the season goes on, but offensive line woes mixed with the seeming inability of Giants’ skill players to learn OC Ben McAdoo’s new system may make the offense a fantasy wasteland.
Cruz is still a WR2 because of opportunity, but I would be shopping his name value around my league this week. This Giants’ offense could be a train wreck.
Chiefs’ Defense
Already primed for a healthy amount of regression, the Chiefs lost Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson to Achilles’ injures in their Week 1 game against the Titans. DeVito was a plus run defender along Kansas City’s defensive line, and Johnson is one of the best inside linebackers in the league.
The Chiefs immediately felt both absences. According The Kansas City Star’s Terez Paylor, the Titans only averaged 2.6 yards per carry before Johnson went down to injury. After Johnson left, the Titans managed 136 yards on 28 carries (4.86 YPC). That trend should continue, and should take Kansas City from a middle of the road defense against running backs last season into a defense to target this year.
Those losses coupled with the state of the Chiefs’ secondary also make the Kansas City DST nothing more than a matchup play moving forward. With the Broncos next on the docket, the Chiefs DST is an easy drop.
The Purge
These players are unlikely to make any noise this season. Replace them with higher-upside options.
Tavon Austin is just not a good player, and does not play in an offense good enough to properly utilize him. It is not going to happen. … The Patriots already have a more talented Danny Amendola in Julian Edelman. Five targets and 20 yards may happen a lot this season. … Tyler Eifert will likely miss several weeks with a dislocated elbow, and was never going to be a high-upside player in Cincinnati’s offense. … Stevie Johnson is sharing time as the No. 4 receiving option in a low volume passing attack. … Mohamed Sanu is a nice gadget player for the Bengals, but will not see the touches to be fantasy relevant. … Miles Austin was out-targeted by undrafted rookie Taylor Gabriel, and Josh Gordon could be back any day. … Brandon LaFell could not catch any of his five targets. He could be a healthy scratch once Aaron Dobson is healthy.
