Welcome to the RotoGrinders Primer! We’re now into Week 11, which means we’re somehow down to just seven full NFL Sundays. The good news is Thanksgiving is on the horizon which brings about its own abbreviated slate, so that’s a nice little bonus.
Now that we have some data at our fingertips, we’ll dive into a handful of the available research tools at RotoGrinders to uncover some of the top options for Sunday’s main slate.
A few of the tools I’ll dive into are for DFS premium members, so you’ll get a sneak preview of our top content. I’ll also take a look at some of my favorite free content that I use weekly while building my own lineups. Let’s get into it…
Editor’s Note: If you love Fantasy Football you have to be playing on DRAFT. It’s daily fantasy football snake drafts instead of salary caps. All the fun of season long drafts but with no management and they last for just one week. They take minutes to complete and there’s even auction drafts! No more setting lineups or constantly worrying about pros, just draft and win! Right now DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers an exclusive FREE entry into a real money draft when you make your first deposit! Here’s the link
Targets & Touches
The Targets & Touches page is something I use every week during football season – it’s one of the best indicators of opportunity, which we like for fantasy purposes. You can find target data for RBs, WRs and TEs in addition to snap data and percentage of workload information. One of my favorite features is that you can view this information alongside salaries for each site, which makes it a little easier to spot value.
Michael Thomas ($8,800 on FanDuel and DraftKings) – It’s not all that easy to separate the top 3-4 options at receiver this week, but I’ll be making an effort to end up way overweight on Thomas shares in GPPs. He’s been rolling in November after a slow month of October and should keep right on chugging against a banged-up Eagles secondary that wasn’t playing all that well to begin with. The Eagles are a much stronger defensive unit up front which will likely make it tougher on the Saints to consistently find success on the ground. Ronald Darby’s ACL issue gives the Eagles no hope of containing Thomas one-on-one and Malcolm Jenkins is likely to continue handling slot duties in nickel packages, but regardless this will be an exploitable matchup if the Saints want it. I don’t expect the Eagles to lay down coming off of a bad loss at home to a division rival, so expect a hike in volume from Brees’ 25 pass attempts this past Sunday.
Saquon Barkley ($8,800 on FanDuel, $8,700 on DraftKings) – Barkley leads all RBs on the main slate in targets and coming off of two straight games without a touchdown, he couldn’t step into a better spot against the leaky Tampa Bay defense. His five-target outing in Week 10 broke a streak of three straight games with double-digit targets, but even in games when he “struggles” Barkley is still seeing heavy all-around usage. This game has the second-highest total of the weekend and the Giants are a rare favorite, so there is GPP-winning upside here. Barkley is my top overall play at the RB spot in all formats.
Kenny Golladay ($6,400 on FanDuel, $5,800) – The seasonal target total for Golladay doesn’t jump out at you, but he’s coming off a 13-target outing against Chicago two weeks after the Lions dealt Golden Tate to Philly. Marvin Jones missed Thursday’s practice and if he’s not able to get some work in Friday, he could very well end up inactive on Sunday which would likely lead to an even larger slice of the pie for Golladay. It’s not safe to expect double-digit looks on a weekly basis with Tate gone – Golladay saw four in Tate’s first game away from the team – but he should absolutely be the top option here if Jones is out or limited. This is a middling draw with Carolina’s pass defense and James Bradberry’s presence could be annoying if his attention is turned heavily towards Golladay, but I’m counting on volume here at Golladay’s moderate price tag.
[[ad:athena]]
Projected Ownership
For those playing large-field GPPs, ownership is something you should be monitoring closely each week. It’s not an easy thing to forecast but using a combination of different factors we’re able to get a good idea of who the most popular plays will be each week. We don’t need to be fading every popular play on the board, but for large tournaments it’s going to be tough to finish at the top without either employing strong stacking strategies or taking a slightly contrarian approach. Our Projected Ownership is part of our premium content package, so it’s monitored vigorously throughout the week.
Dak Prescott ($7,400 on FanDuel, $5,200 on DraftKings) to Amari Cooper ($6,600 on FanDuel, $5,400 on DraftKings) – We currently have Prescott projected for 1% ownership on FanDuel and 2.5% on DraftKings, with Cooper sitting at 5% on FanDuel and 7.5% on DraftKings. I don’t expect Dallas to suddenly turn into a passing juggernaut, but Cooper’s Week 10 target share (10 targets on 36 Prescott pass attempts) is promising. Given what they gave up to acquire him, they’ll want to show some returns quickly. Prescott’s feet give him a ceiling bump and the cost of pairing these two together absolutely allows for a few studs to be slotted in around them. Atlanta’s defense has been particularly friendly to opposing QBs dating back to early October and this one at least has a glimmer of shootout potential.
Jared Cook ($5,500 on FanDuel, $3,900 on DraftKings) – It has been UGLY in Oakland lately and that same adjective describes the Oakland receiving corps perfectly. Martavis Bryant is set to miss multiple weeks and Jordy Nelson is both banged up and pissed off, and at this point in the week he has yet to practice. It seems unlikely as of this writing that he plays, setting up a combination of Brandon LaFell, Seth Roberts, Marcell Ateman, Dwayne Harris and Saaed Blacknall to handle snaps at WR. Yikes. Cook should be the leader in target share despite a less-than-stellar draw with the Cardinals Defense, and especially on DraftKings, the volume and red-zone usage at $3,900 are tantalizing. Neither offense inspires much confidence but Cook is the top option on the Oakland side and his 5% projected ownership on both major sites gives him plenty of GPP appeal.
Alshon Jeffery ($7,300 on FanDuel, $6,300 on DraftKings) – Jeffery is coming off back-to-back single-digit outings, and that alone may make the field skeptical to invest in. Golden Tate’s presence is yet another reason to be cautious, but I’m going to be way overweight on Jeffery shares in tournaments, especially as part of NO/PHI game stacks. He’s seen fewer than eight looks just once this year and this particular matchup sets up much better for the Philly receivers as opposed to the tight ends. Zach Ertz is still likely to be the most popular play at the TE spot this weekend, further diverting interest away from Jeffery. He’s projected for 7.5% ownership on both major sites with Ertz at 20%+ and Agholor/Tate likely to generate a least a little buzz, so it’s possible Jeffery goes even more overlooked than we think.
Value Town!
Welcome to Value Town, parts unknown. I won’t be recommending the Todd Gurley’s of the world here, but instead will try to find a handful of viable value plays at each position to make the rest of the roster building process a little easier. I won’t go into detail for each player, but they are ranked in order of preference for GPPs/tournaments at each position.
Quarterbacks
- Carson Wentz on FanDuel ($7,700), Dak Prescott on DraftKings ($5,200)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,600 on FanDuel, $5,600 on DraftKings)
- Deshaun Watson ($7,800 on FanDuel, $5,700 on DraftKings)
Running Backs
- Dion Lewis ($5,900 on FanDuel, $4,800 on DraftKings)
- Peyton Barber ($3,600 on DraftKings) – He’s a particularly good value on DK.
- Alex Collins ($6,000 on FanDuel, $4,400 on DraftKings)
Wide Receivers
- Amari Cooper ($6,600 on FanDuel, $5,400 on DraftKings)
- Tre’Quan Smith ($4,900 on FanDuel, $4,000 on DraftKings)
- Brandon LaFell ($5,500 on FanDuel, $3,400 on DraftKings)
Tight Ends
- Jack Doyle ($5,400 on FanDuel, $4,200 on DraftKings)
- Jared Cook ($5,500 on FanDuel, $3,900 on DraftKings)
- Ricky Seals-Jones ($5,200 on FanDuel, $2,900 on DraftKings) – DK special at under $3K.
