Welcome back, all. It’s been what has felt like a short eight or nine months since we last convened here, but Week 1 is upon us. Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward redraft leagues but can also be used for DFS purposes.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Matthew Stafford vs. Jets: Last season’s overall QB7 in fantasy, Stafford spent the summer being selected as a fringe fantasy starter at QB11. New coach Matt Patricia is in place, but upon his hiring he left the offense alone, keeping OC Jim Bob Cooter as the play-caller. That’s great news for an offense that ranked 11th in passing DVOA at Football Outsiders. The Lions obviously need more out of their run game, but Detroit didn’t make Stafford the highest-paid player in the game (at the time of his signing one year ago) to not have him throw the ball. The Lions’ Week 1 opponent, the Jets, surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2017 and were 22nd in pass-defense DVOA. The addition of CB Trumaine Johnson should help immensely, but this defense has possibly the worst pass-rushing group in the league, which in turn puts a ton of pressure on the secondary. Stafford is a locked-in top 8-10 quarterback with upside this week.
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Starts
Andy Dalton at Colts: Dalton had arguably the best preseason among starting quarterbacks. He completed 71% of his passes while averaging a league-best 10.5 yards per attempt for 324 yards, four touchdowns, and one pick. He was sacked just two times on 33 drop-backs and led the league with a 130.9 passer rating. That all needs to be taken with a grain of salt, sure, but Dalton is surrounded by healthier weapons and overall superior talent compared to last year. Many in the community are expecting a bounce-back season. The only way this matchup could be better is if it was at home, but Dalton still at least gets to play in a dome environment against one of the league’s least-talented defenses on paper. The Colts let CB Rashaan Melvin walk as a free agent, traded young DE Henry Anderson to the Jets, and cut DT Johnathan Hankins. Indianapolis lists Kenny Moore and Nate Hairston as its first-team corners. Moore started the final five games last year as a rookie UDFA who was previously cut by New England. Hairston was a 2017 fifth-rounder who played 537 snaps mainly as a sub-package corner. The Colts’ pass rush is up there with the aforementioned Jets as one of the worst in the league. Indy was 31st in sacks, dead last in pass-defense DVOA, and surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year. Dalton is a fine streamer.
Philip Rivers vs. Chiefs: The loss of Hunter Henry to a torn ACL really hurts, but the Chargers have enough left in the cupboard to overcome it. Rivers is 36 years old now but has the best Chargers offensive line of the past half decade in front of him this year anchored by LT Russell Okung, RT Joe Barksdale, and newcomer C Mike Pouncey. On the other side, the Chiefs are in a transition mode on defense and essentially have an entirely new secondary. Eric Berry is back from a torn Achilles’ suffered last Week 1 but now has a heel injury he’s been dealing with for weeks. The team traded All Pro CB Marcus Peters to the Rams and moved on from all five of CBs Eric Murray, Phillip Gaines, Darrelle Revis, Terrance Mitchell, and Kenneth Acker, who combined to appear in 64 games and start 16 of them for last year’s Chiefs. The Kansas City secondary is in such a state of flux that it signed FS Ron Parker over the weekend after his release from the Falcons and immediately has plans to start him against the Chargers. The Chiefs managed the ninth-fewest sacks in 2017 and allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Rivers had a 1:6 TD:INT mark against the Chiefs last year, but I like him as a Week 1 streamer with real upside.
Kirk Cousins vs. 49ers: Making his Minnesota debut, Cousins and the Vikings open the week with this fifth-highest implied team total on the slate at 26.25 points as 6.5-point home favorites. Cousins didn’t look totally comfortable this preseason, completing just 60% of his passes at a meager 5.9 YPA clip, but he and Stefon Diggs showed a strong connection in the regular-season tuneup two weeks back, and Kyle Rudolph barely played this summer as a veteran who underwent offseason surgery. The offensive line also remains a bit of a concern, but Cousins gets a pretty soft Week 1 matchup. San Francisco’s pass rush again looks really weak on paper after finishing 26th in sacks last year, while the secondary added a 30-year-old Richard Sherman coming off a torn Achilles’ and subtracted Eric Reid. The Niners gave up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2017 and checked in at 28th in pass-defense DVOA. Cousins lit them up last Week 6 for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Fantasy owners can feel comfortable rolling Cousins out there this Sunday.
Sits
Jimmy Garoppolo at Vikings: Garoppolo had a really quiet summer, seemingly finding it tough to sync up with his receivers and tight ends not named Marquise Goodwin. But he still averaged a healthy 8.2 YPA in the preseason while throwing a score. Garoppolo’s perfect 7-0 career record will be put to test big time in the opener. The Vikings were No. 4 in pass-defense DVOA a year ago and surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. They’ve since added DT Sheldon Richardson, first-round CB Mike Hughes, and Bengals castoff S George Iloka without losing any real important defensive contributors. As Rotoworld’s own Evan Silva noted on Twitter, the Vikings have allowed an average of 13.4 points per game in their last 10 home games. Minnesota very well may be the best team in the league heading into Week 1. Garoppolo should be a quality back-end QB1 over the duration of 2018, but I’m avoiding him as much as possible this week.
Derek Carr vs. Rams: Signed to the richest deal in league history at the time last summer, Carr went on to completely flop in 2017 after being part of the MVP conversation much of the previous season, which has been an outlier year during Carr’s four-year career. New coach Jon Gruden brings a better offense to Oakland, but the offensive tackle spots are in a state of transition while we also didn’t see much of the first-team offense in preseason. The Raiders are the biggest home underdog of the week chasing 4.5 points against a freshly-loaded Rams defense that will start former All-Pros Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib at corner while also getting Aaron Donald back from his summer holdout up front. We need to take a wait-and-see approach with Carr.
Ben Roethlisberger at Browns: Big Ben’s previously-notorious home-road splits evened out more in 2017 with the Steelers going 7-1 on the road and Roethlisberger completing nearly 62% of his passes with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio and 91.7 rating. The Steelers opened last season in Cleveland, as well, and Big Ben managed 263 yards and a pair of scores in a narrow win. He was fantasy’s QB15 that week. That’s a serviceable game for the 36-year-old, but there are better options out there for Week 1, especially with the Browns much improved in the secondary and on defense as a whole. Big Ben also tends to struggle on the road with early kickoff times; he’s more of a QB2 this week.
RUNNING BACK
Start of the Week: Kenyan Drake vs. Titans: A lot was made of the Dolphins listing their starting running back as “Kenyan Drake or Frank Gore” on Tuesday’s depth chart. We’re taking it as pure semantics here at Rotoworld. Just last week, coach Adam Gase said he hopes to get Drake 15-20 carries and 6-8 targets per game out of the backfield. But it’s very much possible Gore “starts” as the back on the first play of the game before quickly ceding to Drake. It’s hard to see Miami giving Gore more than a handful of carries per game. If they do, they’re obviously trying to lose by keeping Drake, their best offensive playmaker, off the field. The Titans played pretty strong run defense a year ago, but they did surrender the third-most catches and most yards (by more than 100) to running backs. Ryan Tannehill loves throwing the ball in the short areas of the field and could opt to do so even more this week with DeVante Parker (finger) likely to sit. Drake is a locked-in RB2 with big upside after amassing 594 yards on 108 touches the final six games of 2017.
Starts
Alex Collins vs. Bills: The Ravens put Collins on ice this preseason, playing him just nine offensive snaps as he totaled 33 rushing yards on three carries. The Seahawks castoff is penned in atop the depth chart as a safe, bankable RB2 heading into the season. This might be his best matchup of the year. Buffalo was smashed by running backs last season, allowing the most fantasy points, rushing yards, and touchdowns to the position. The Bills hope the additions of NT Star Lotulelei and first-round LB Tremaine Edmunds will hope sew up some of those holes, but Baltimore is in position to really pound the rock down Buffalo’s throat Sunday. The Ravens are seven-point home favorites. From Week 11 forward last year, Collins averaged 19.8 touches and was fantasy’s RB10 in that span. The Ravens also get starting LG Alex Lewis and RG Marshal Yanda back from injuries.
Carlos Hyde vs. Steelers: Signed to a three-year, $15 million deal in March, the Browns’ usage of Hyde in the preseason suggests he’s well ahead of second-round rookie Nick Chubb for the early-down role. Hyde rumbled for 108 yards and a score on 17 carries (6.35 YPC) this summer. He was one of the last mid-round running backs we could have any sort of trust in during fantasy drafts this summer and should provide early RB2/FLEX value. The Browns have a strong offensive line with good blocking at tight end and a game-manager under center in Tyrod Taylor. They’ll likely want to establish the run as much as possible this year. Meanwhile, the Steelers are still trying to overcome the indefinite loss of ILB Ryan Shazier (back/neck). Over the last five weeks last season with Shazier out, the Steelers surrendered nearly 5.0 yards per carry and the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. Hyde is a top-25 back for Week 1 but loses some appeal in PPR formats.
Latavius Murray vs. 49ers: Murray scored eight touchdowns over the Vikings’ final nine regular-season games last season after Dalvin Cook went down with a torn ACL. The 3.9 YPC average set a new career-low for Murray, but he displayed a knack for finishing drives with a nose for the end zone. Minnesota has since gotten Cook back from injury but let Jerick McKinnon go as a free agent. Murray is cemented as Cook’s direct backup and played a three-down role this preseason while Cook was eased back in, playing just one preseason series and gaining one rushing yard on two carries. Murray was targeted seven times in the first half of the third preseason game by Kirk Cousins and carried 10 times that day with a short touchdown. It’s a very real concern that Minnesota will continue to ease Cook into bigger workloads the first month of the season, giving Murray some standalone value. This might be his best bet at production in a home date with the Niners with the Vikings as 6.5-point favorites and the fifth-highest team total of the week. Murray is a decent FLEX option for owners looking for a cheap touchdown or ones who own Le’Veon Bell.
Sits
Alfred Morris at Vikings: Signed less than a month ago to what initially looked like a depth signing with an outside shot at the 53-man roster, soon-to-be 30-year-old Morris now finds himself smack-dab in the middle of the 49ers’ offensive plans heading into 2018 following the season-ending ACL tear to Jerick McKinnon. Morris looked good in limited work with the Cowboys last year, averaging 4.8 YPC and amassing 545 yards, but he’s up there in age and is likely best suited for a part-time role rather than early-down bellcow. Matt Breida is listed atop the depth chart, but neither player is looking like a particularly appetizing fantasy play on the road as massive underdogs against a Vikings defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points and second-fewest rushing yards to running backs a year ago while also adding to the unit rather than losing defensive contributors. It’s best to take a wait-and-see approach with San Fran’s backfield to see how they split work.
Chris Carson at Broncos: Carson locked up RB1 duties for the Seahawks with an impressive, healthy summer after missing the second part of last season with a leg injury. Carson turned 22 preseason carries into 91 yards (4.1 YPC) and a score while catching four balls for 26 yards. It’s not out of the question that he’ll open the year as a near-every down back. First-rounder Rashaad Penny spent the summer breaking a finger and gaining weight. While Carson’s role is ideal, his matchup for Week 1 isn’t. Denver allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last year and finished third in run-defense DVOA. They also get stud DE Derek Wolfe back from injury and selected first-round EDGE Bradley Chubb while re-signing ILB Todd Davis. Seattle’s implied team total of 19.75 points is tied for the fifth-lowest of Week 1. Carson needs to be bumped down to RB3/FLEX.
Dalvin Cook vs. 49ers: At times this summer, I saw Cook getting drafted as high as the late first round. That was far too aggressive for me, and I ended up with zero Cook shares heading into the year. Cook did next to nothing this summer, playing just one preseason series, and rushing for one yard on two carries. All the time we see veteran backs not play a single snap of preseason and still be fine for their huge workloads when Week 1 rolls around, but this situation is different with a young player coming off a serious injury. Cook has serious workload concerns that can’t be ignored early on in September. It’s very possible the Vikings ease him in slowly, giving him 8-10 carries against the Niners, especially with Latavius Murray 100% healthy and proving more than capable of carrying the load. UDFAs Mike Boone and Roc Thomas also had fine preseasons en route to making the 53-man roster. If I were a Cook owner and had more than enough capable backs, I’d seriously consider sitting Cook in Week 1 with the Vikings as heavy home favorites who may not need to press Cook into action. Cook may not be completely 100% until October.
WIDE RECEIVER
Start of the Week: Randall Cobb vs. Bears: Cobb played just six snaps this preseason, failing to reel in his lone target. He required a clean-up procedure on his ankle in June and was in a walking boot up until training camp. However, he practiced without limitations, and the Packers really didn’t play the first-string offense at all in exhibitions. All that led to some rumblings that Cobb was on the trade block right up until final cuts, but nothing ever came of the reports. Cobb is on the club and should be locked into No. 2 duties behind Davante Adams. Cobb will have a chance to get back to seeing 100-plus targets as long as he stays healthy this year. He averaged six catches for 60 yards in games Aaron Rodgers was healthy last season and scored one of his four touchdowns against the Bears in one of those games. The Bears were middle of the pack in pass defense last year. And as Rotoworld’s Raymond Summerlin noted in the Draft Guide, Rodgers’ No. 2 receiver has finished as a WR24 or better six times in eight seasons Rodgers has played at least 15 games. I like Cobb to have a big game Sunday night after a slow lull of a summer.
Starts
Cooper Kupp at Raiders: Last year’s WR25 in PPR leagues, Kupp still went a bit overlooked in fantasy drafts this summer and was drafted as the overall WR32. He didn’t play in the preseason like most of the Rams’ first-team offense, leading to a quiet summer. But CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora reported in August that Kupp was dominating joint practices with the Ravens, and he and Jared Goff have “something special” with their rapport. Kupp led the Rams in targets and red-zone targets a year ago and has room to grow with his touchdowns in a high-octane passing offense. He’ll get what appears like it will be 33-year-old slot CB Leon Hall’s coverage on Monday night. Hall could barely find the field for a lackluster 49ers secondary last season and hasn’t been the same player in years. The Raiders don’t have a pass rush and field a bottom-barrel secondary. They ranked 30th in pass-defense DVOA last year and have only gotten worse. Kupp is locked and loaded as safe WR2 play for a Rams team that has the fourth-highest team total at 27 points.
Emmanuel Sanders vs. Seahawks: Sanders was slowed badly by an ankle injury and dreadful quarterback play a year ago, but he appears to be all the way back to 100% and then some this summer. Sanders was easily Case Keenum’s favorite target in the preseason. This offense again figures to be pretty concentrated on Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in the pass game since the Broncos again lack a capable tight end. The Seahawks used to be a daunting matchup for opposing wideouts, but that’s no longer the case. Gone is Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas just returned from a summer-long holdout on Wednesday and is uncertain for Sunday, and Byron Maxwell was placed on I.R. at final cuts. Shaquill Griffin is the new default No. 1 corner, and No. 2 appears unclear with Neiko Thorpe, Justin Coleman, and rookie Tre Flowers as options. And the only remotely feared pass rusher on the team is Frank Clark. Sanders is a strong WR2 at home, with a better quarterback, improved health, and against a defense that might be one of the bottom 10 in the league.
John Ross at Bengals: This is more of a deep-league dive and DFS tournament option, but Ross flashed big ability in the preseason, scoring a 57-yard touchdown on the Bengals’ first pass of the third preseason game against the Bills, smoking ex-Colts CB Vontae Davis. Ross has speed to burn and most importantly stayed healthy this summer. There’s a reason he was a first-round pick last year. And in Cincinnati, with A.J. Green commanding safety help over the top, Ross should see single-coverage all day long. As mentioned above, the Colts field one of the worst defenses on paper and figure to go into the year with a cornerback group of Kenny Moore, Nate Hairston, Pierre Desir, and Quincy Wilson. We wouldn’t fault you if you’ve never heard of any of the four. Green is going to get his targets, but the remaining looks will be spread around to Ross, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Eifert, and the backfield combo of Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard. Ross will likely have to score a long touchdown to be worth it, but this is one of the best matchups for the sophomore.
Sits
Jordy Nelson vs. Rams: New Raiders coach Jon Gruden jettisoned Michael Crabtree in favor of the older Jordy Nelson, essentially handing Nelson Crabtree’s old contract. Nelson turned 33 in May and is coming off a career-worst season where he first battled injuries and then was stuck with Brett Hundley as his quarterback. It remains to be seen if Nelson’s fall was real. In Oakland, he’s locked in as the No. 2 wideout, especially after the Raiders cut Martavis Bryant over the weekend as he faces another indefinite suspension. But the Monday night matchup with the Rams couldn’t get much tougher for the Silver and Black’s pass game. The Rams were No. 3 in pass-defense DVOA last season, No. 10 in fantasy points allowed to receivers and have since upgraded at corner with Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib from Trumaine Johnson and Kayvon Webster. In the slot, Nickell Robey-Coleman remains a steady contributor. So no matter where Nelson lines up, he’s going to be in for a long night. At 33, I simply don’t think he can win against these sticky cover corners.
Sammy Watkins at Chargers: Watkins signed a massive three-year, $48 million contract with Kansas City in March, and early signs out of practice were positive. Watkins and Patrick Mahomes had developed a “real” connection in the spring, and coach Andy Reid was moving Watkins all over the formation to get him open. However, the preseason proved to be pretty concerning. On 67 snaps, roughly a full game’s worth, Watkins was targeted seven times but only hauled in one of them for 15 yards. Another was picked off, and a third was a drop. On the complete opposite side of the spectrum, Tyreek Hill turned 64 snaps into catching all 14 of his targets for 182 yards and one touchdown. It’s pretty obvious who the No. 1 wideout is in K.C. On a good day, Watkins would be No. 3 behind Hill and Travis Kelce, and sometimes he’s going to be the fourth option behind Kareem Hunt. To top it off, this matchup is brutal. The Chargers were No. 9 in pass-defense DVOA last year and allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts. All three of CBs Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King are healthy after very strong 2017 seasons. Watkins is a Week 1 fade.
Marquise Goodwin at Vikings: The receiver to own in San Francisco, Goodwin will be tasked with beating CB Xavier Rhodes in Week 1. Good luck. Goodwin is a more polished receiver than he was in Buffalo, but he’s never faced Rhodes as a No. 1 wideout. And that’s exactly what he is now for the Niners, so it would be surprising if Rhodes wasn’t tasked with trailing Goodwin much of the day. Rhodes was Pro Football Focus’ No. 29 cover corner last season, allowing a 73.2 passer rating and just two touchdowns in his coverage. As a team, the Vikings surrendered the ninth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. Minnesota plays even better at home, and the 49ers have the sixth-lowest implied team total of Week 1 as near-touchdown underdogs. Goodwin is best left on the bench as a WR4 this week. In a week with no byes, there should be better options available.
TIGHT END
Start of the Week: Trey Burton at Packers: Burton played 34 snaps this preseason, roughly the equivalent of half of an NFL game, and was targeted six times, corralling five of them for 50 yards and one touchdown. As an Eagle last year, Burton made two starts with Zach Ertz out and posted 2-41-1 and 5-71-2 receiving lines in those games. When given the chance to run with the ones, Burton has always made plays. He’s clearly been Mitchell Trubisky’s favorite target throughout the summer, and Bears beat writers have been predicting him to flirt with 1,000 yards. Green Bay was really good against tight ends last year, allowing the fourth-fewest points to the position, but it’s pretty evident the pass game has been running through Burton, who may be the favorite to lead Chicago in catches. Burton is expected to challenge a top-five tight end finish this season.
Starts
Vance McDonald at Browns: McDonald was injured early in the preseason, but his foot has had time to heal and allowed him to practice Wednesday. Coach Mike Tomlin has expressed optimism in McDonald’s availability for the opener. The matchup couldn’t be much better on paper if we’re to look back at trends against DC Gregg Williams’ defense a year ago. The Browns allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and second-most touchdowns to tight ends last season while checking in at No. 32 in DVOA against the position. McDonald was targeted a whopping 16 times in the Divisional Round last postseason and is expected to be the Steelers’ go-to pass-game option at the position while Jesse James wears his hard hat as a blocker. McDonald is a plus athlete, but his problem has always been health. He’s very much in the mix as a Week 1 streamer.
Kyle Rudolph vs. 49ers: Rudolph took a step back last season as Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs took leaps forward. Also, Rudolph suffered a high-ankle sprain late in the year and eventually needed a clean-up operation over the winter. He’s 100% now but saw just two targets on 63 preseason snaps, raising some concern for the safe-floor TE1. But dating back to his Redskins days, Kirk Cousins has long had an affinity for his tight ends. Per PFF’s Scott Barrett, Cousins has targeted tight ends at a career 24.5% rate, well above the NFL average of 20.8%, and Cousins praised Rudolph’s presence as a safety blanket earlier in the summer. The 49ers were middle of the pack against tight ends last year and failed to re-sign S Eric Reid, one of their top playmakers. Rudolph is always a good bet for a touchdown, and that remains the case for Sunday.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins at Giants: Seferian-Jenkins popped up on the injury report Wednesday with a core-muscle injury, so this bears watching heading into the weekend. However, if ASJ can play, he’ll be in a glorious spot to produce. The Giants were dead last in essentially every statistical category versus opposing tight ends last year and did nothing to upgrade. They traded for ILB Alec Ogletree who couldn’t cover a lick for the Rams and failed to upgrade at safety next to Landon Collins. The Giants were getting scorched in the middle of the field in the preseason, though new DC James Bettcher did defend the position well the previous couple years in Arizona. He doesn’t have the same players in New York, obviously. For now, we’re going to keep attacking the G-Men.
Sits
Evan Engram vs. Jaguars: Last year’s overall TE5, Engram bucked the trend of rookie tight ends struggling in the NFL. He really didn’t have a choice, though, as the Giants lost Odell Beckham to an early season-ending injury and also dealt with injuries to Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard. Engram was all Eli Manning had left, and Engram finished second to Travis Kelce in targets. But OBJ is now back to full health, Shepard is back as the No. 2 wideout, and Saquon Barkley was drafted with the No. 2 overall pick. Engram is expected to take a big hit to his target share. The only smattering of good news this week is that Beckham will be tied up with Jalen Ramsey, which could funnel more looks to Engram. The Giants might then just opt to ride Barkley more. I wanted no part of Engram in fantasy drafts this summer and don’t have much interest in his Week 1 matchup.
Jared Cook vs. Rams: #RevengeGame. Cook was Rams GM Les Snead’s first big free-agent signing in 2013. He spent three years with the Rams before he was cut prior to 2016. Cook had a strong year with the Silver and Black last season, setting a career best with 54 catches. He mixed in some booming stat line with five games with fewer than 20 yards. The Rams present a tough matchup, even though they allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the position in 2017. They return starting safeties Lamarcus Joyner and John Johnson but had an addition by subtraction with the trade of ILB Alec Ogletree. Cook will have his popup weeks, but this doesn’t look like it will be one.
Antonio Gates vs. Chiefs: Tight end is the weakest skill position in fantasy, so Gates’ addition back to the stable is at least interesting. But it’s hard to get on a 38-year-old who hasn’t practiced at all since last season and was sitting on his couch last weekend. Gates will likely have his days this year with no Hunter Henry (knee) and nothing else in his way at the position for the Chargers, but this isn’t the week to plug him in if you’re desperate for a streamer. Mike Williams and Melvin Gordon are expected to take on bigger roles in the red zone in the absence of Henry.
