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It’s the coldest comfort to roster a receiver or tight end or running back who sees a glut of targets and fails to convert them into fantasy production.
Everything aligned for the player: He ran a bunch of pass routes, he saw a good number of looks from his quarterback -- maybe even a high-value target or two. It didn’t end with fantasy points on the scoreboard so it was, you believe, a failure.
“Process” can sound like the official excuse of the loser -- a word you blurt out when things go sideways. “The process was right,” the loser says, “and the results didn’t follow.” Whatever you think of a process for spotting worthy borderline fantasy options, it remains vitally important. Figuring out how to identify streaming plays or desperation options in fantasy football is the first step to benefiting from unforeseen production from said players. [[ad:athena]]
In this space we’ll examine the intriguing cross-section of defenses most vulnerable to certain positions and how pass catchers are being used in their respective offenses. Mostly we’ll focus on tight ends and running backs whose weekly prospects might look slightly less hideous with some much-needed context.
With every passing week, our understanding of defensive shortcomings and pass catchers’ roles will improve, and with that, players highlighted in this space will be more viable in 12 and 14-team fantasy leagues.
Reasons Not To Panic
Before we get into target decoding for borderline (or desperation) Week 7 fantasy options, let’s calm ourselves about slow starts for some of the the most highly touted pass catchers. In evaluating their opportunity, I look at targets per route run, air yards share, and WOPR -- not the genocidal computer from the 1983 movie War Games, but a weighted average of a player’s target market share. WOPR is useful in determining who is earning targets and how valuable those targets can be.
Darren Waller (LV)
Waller is fantasy’s fourth highest scoring tight end and to those who giddily drafted him in the second round this summer, it feels for all the world like Waller isn’t a top-20 tight end. Our brains, deceitful organs that they are, work like that.
The collective disappointment with Waller’s early-season lull has more to do with lofty expectations than results. We drafted Waller with the memory of last year’s scorching late-season run fresh in our minds. All the targets, all the yards, all the touchdowns. That’s what we expected every week, especially after Waller lit up the Ravens in Week 1, posting the most disappointing 10-catch, 105-yard performance in NFL history.
It’s not as if Waller’s usage has been scaled back in any meaningful way. He’s run a pass route on 90.2 percent of Derek Carr’s drop backs this season, just slightly down from his 92.4 percent rate in 2020. A quick look at his 2021 usage and opportunity won’t -- or shouldn’t -- send you spiraling.
Stat | Waller 2020 season | Waller 2021 season |
Target share | 28% | 25% |
Air yards share | 25% | 25% |
Air yards per target | 7.8 | 10.1 |
Yards per target | 8.2 | 7 |
WOPR | 0.6 | 0.55 |
TD rate | 8.4% | 6% |
Could Waller use a little more touchdown luck (two scores on 33 receptions this season)? Sure. Would we like to see a few more easy, short receptions for Waller every week instead of the slightly more high variance looks he’s getting? Yeah. Could his targets per route rate -- which has dropped from 26.7 percent in 2020 to 22.6 percent this season -- creep a little higher? Yes, please. Should we panic about any of the above numbers? No.
Travis Kelce is the only tight end whose fantasy prospects don’t hinge at all on touchdown production. Waller is the next best option -- as his August ADP indicated -- but isn’t nearly as inoculated from the ups and downs inherent in the tight end position. The peripheral numbers say Waller drafters have every reason to trust their guy will come through with some week-winning performances. Now do some breathing exercises.
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Week 7 Decoded Targets
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) at BAL
My grandfather always said when you get the chance to tout a guy with an 8 percent target share through six games, you do it.
Uzomah followed up his Week 4 outburst against the Jaguars -- five catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns -- with two much quieter performances: Two receptions for 15 yards against the Packers in Week 5 and three grabs for 15 yards and a touchdown against Detroit. After running a route on a measly 39 percent of Joe Burrow’s drop backs in the season’s first three games, Uzomah’s route rate has climbed to 73.3 percent over Cincinnati’s past three contests. That’s the sort of pass route bump that helps a tight end go from fantasy afterthought to borderline starter who you might be perversely happy to roster during Bye Week Armageddon.
Uzomah this week goes against a Baltimore defense allowing lots of opportunity to enemy tight ends, as they did through most of the 2020 season. Tight ends have seen a league high 28.6 percent target share against the Ravens through Week 6 -- that comes out to 10.5 targets per game. I’ll once again point out that it wasn’t just Darren Waller and Travis Kelce who got over on the Baltimore secondary. Denver tight ends combined for seven catches and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 4; the Colts’ motley crew of tight ends had a combined seven receptions for 73 yards against Baltimore in Week 5; and Jared Cook caught the Chargers’ only Week 6 touchdown against the Ravens on seven targets.
Good news for Uzomah (and the rest of the Bengals pass catchers): The Ravens have turned into a full-blown pass funnel defense. This is among the things you love to see. Seventy-seven percent of yards gained against Baltimore this year have come via the pass, the fourth highest rate in the league. The Bengals, 6.5-point road dogs headed into Week 7, will (almost) certainly have to give in and throw the ball more than they have in this young season.
The hope is that Uzomah, running a solid number of routes in a pass-heavy game script, can take advantage of a glaring weakness in the Baltimore defense. Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen, an excellent pass rusher, has been less excellent in pass coverage this season. Pro Football Focus grades Queen as the league’s sixth worst coverage linebacker. He’s given up 19 catches on 24 targets for 123 yards, while fellow Ravens linebacker Malik Harrison has ceded 13 grabs on 17 targets for 160 yards and two touchdowns. Uzomah has the rare combination of a friendly matchup and friendlier (likely) game script on his side this week.
Ross Dwelley (SF) vs. IND
George Kittle -- stop calling him George Brittle, it’s not nice -- will once again be sidelined Sunday night when the Niners take on the Colts on NBC. Kittle’s eternal backup, Ross Dwelley, will step into TE1 duties in a pretty good spot.
Dwelley in Week 5 -- with Kittle sidelined -- ran a pass route on a respectable 74.28 percent of the 49ers’ drop backs. His final stat line against the Cardinals wasn’t fantastic (two catches on two targets for 25 yards) but that’s beside the point. The point, as always, being the process. The process, the process, the process, the process, the process. The process.
Dwelley ran 15 more routes than fellow Niners tight end Charlie Woerner, confirming he is, in fact, the team’s main pass-catching tight end with Kittle on the shelf. This week Dwelley goes up against a Colts defense allowing a 24.1 percent target share to tight ends and a league-high five tight end touchdowns. But wait, you cry out. This is all because Mark Andrews nearly ended the Colts franchise in Week 5 with his nuclear 147-yard, two touchdown performance. Well yes, that happened. You know what else happened? Houston’s unheralded tight ends combined for six catches on ten targets for 50 yards against Indy last week. Mike Gesicki started his red-hot run against these Colts, recording five receptions for 57 yards and a score against the horseshoes in Week 4. The Colts are vulnerable to the tight end, per the numbers.
With the Colts’ coverage unit all sorts of banged up entering Week 7, Dwelley profiles as a sensible waiver claim for managers scrambling to piece together a lineup that doesn’t make them want to leave civilization and live in the woods for the rest of their days. That’s my promise to you: I will always give you fantasy options that won’t make you want to quit life.
