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It’s the coldest comfort to roster a receiver or tight end or running back who sees a glut of targets and fails to convert them into fantasy production.
Everything aligned for the player: He ran a bunch of pass routes, he saw a good number of looks from his quarterback -- maybe even a high-value target or two. It didn’t end with fantasy points on the scoreboard so it was, you believe, a failure.
“Process” can sound like the official excuse of the loser -- a word you blurt out when things go sideways. “The process was right,” the loser says, “and the results didn’t follow.” Whatever you think of a process for spotting worthy borderline fantasy options, it remains vitally important. Figuring out how to identify streaming plays or desperation options in fantasy football is the first step to benefiting from unforeseen production from said players.
In this space, we’ll examine the intriguing cross-section of defenses most vulnerable to certain positions and how pass catchers are being used in their respective offenses. Mostly we’ll focus on tight ends and running backs whose weekly prospects might look slightly less hideous with some much-needed context.
With every passing week, our understanding of defensive shortcomings and pass catchers’ roles will improve, and with that, players highlighted in this space will be more viable in 12 and 14-team fantasy leagues.
Reasons Not To Panic
Before we get into target decoding for borderline (or desperation) Week 13 fantasy options, let’s calm ourselves about slow starts for some of the offseason’s most highly touted pass catchers. In evaluating their opportunity, I looked at targets per route run, air yards share, and WOPR -- not the genocidal computer from the 1983 movie War Games, but a weighted average of a player’s target market share. WOPR is useful in determining who is earning targets and how valuable those targets can be.
It’s critically important to know and accept how NFL offenses are trying to operate. All the screaming and whining -- and the accompanying mental anguish -- about how offenses should work doesn’t matter. At all. Failing to understand (or accept) that will result in your skull crashing headlong into a brick wall again and again. Doctors advise against this.
Below are three receivers whose offenses have decided their best path to victory is establishing the run until the analytics dorks cry blood. Even target dominators in these offenses might not be inoculated from down weeks and cold streaks (which happens to be the name of my next album).
Terry McLaurin (WFT)
McLaurin is down to WR18 after his four-catch, 51-yard performance against the Seahawks on Monday night. He’s eclipsed 100 receiving yards in just two of his past seven games and he has less than 60 yards in five of those contests. Washington has found a way not to suck, and that sucks for its No. 1 wideout.
The Football Team is fully committed to a hyper-conservative, ball-control offense. No team has dominated time of possession like Washington over their past three games, all wins in which their long drives and slow offensive pace summarily crushed their opponents’ fantasy prospects. It’s been a decidedly good development for sudden workhorse Antonio Gibson and decidedly not-so-good news for McLaurin.
McLaurin is still commanding a monster share of the Football Team’s targets. Only Diontae Johnson and Davante Adams have a higher WOPR than Scary Terry, and no receiver has a higher share of his team’s air yards than McLaurin (45 percent). But being an alpha wideout in a (very) run-heavy offense can leave fantasy managers wanting. Washington’s revamped, old-school offense has passed the ball on 55 percent of its plays over the past three weeks, the eighth-lowest rate in the league. The Football Team’s pass rate from Week 10-12 has plunged to 45 percent when they’re leading.
It’s no secret that head coach Ron Rivera wants his Football Team to be a run-first team when they can be. The worst part for McLaurin drafters: It’s working. There’s no reason to believe Washington will suddenly place more confidence in former XFL backup QB Taylor Heinicke. Don’t panic about McLaurin, but adjust your expectations. He’s locked in as a WR2; he is not a WR1 unless Washington’s best-laid offensive plans go up in flames. He’ll continue to hog much of the ever-shrinking target pie in Washington’s offense.
Elijah Moore (NYJ)
Moore has made a nice surge in playing time, targets, and production of late, making my last-place best ball teams look slightly less bad. Thank you for your service, Elijah.
The rookie in Week 12 against the Texans commanded a stellar 35 percent target share. That worked out to … eight targets. He caught four for 46 yards.
A 35 percent target share has never looked worse. The Jets, with game script on their side for the entire game, deployed a run-heavy offense with Zach Wilson back under center. It makes sense to keep the ball out of the rookie’s hands whenever possible. He’s been wretched for his entire rookie campaign, even worse than Trevor Lawrence. The Jets had a 45 percent pass rate in their Week 12 win over Houston, amounting to 34 rushing attempts and 28 passes. This wasn’t a one-off either. In rare occasions where New York has had the lead in 2021, the offense has a 46 percent pass rate, ninth-lowest in the NFL. The Jets have turned into one of the run-heaviest red zone teams too. It’s not welcomed news for Moore drafters thrilled that their guy has finally emerged.
As seven-point home dogs against the Eagles in Week 13, it’s probably a stretch to say the Jets will definitely stick to their run-establishing ways. Philadelphia has been brutally tough against the rush since Week 7. No team has allowed a lower expected points added (EPA) against the run over the six weeks. Maybe that forced the Jets to drop back and let Wilson sling it into the abyss. If not -- if the Jets can keep up with the Eagles -- Moore could again dominate target share and wind up with seven or eight looks.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
I picture a filthy, disheveled Matthew McConaughey muttering to himself that time is a flat circle as he plugs Aiyuk into his lineup this week, ready for another Deebo-less target-fueled run to close the regular season.
But here’s the thing, Matthew (I know you’re reading): The 49ers would never throw a pass if Kyle Shanahan had his way. Like all of the league’s hottest offenses over the past month, Shanny and the Niners are establishing the run as if Gerald Ford were president (sorry to get political). Over the past five weeks -- during which the 49ers have gone 4-1 -- the team has a mind-boggling 37 percent pass rate while leading. Their overall pass rate is 47 percent of that five-game span, the NFL’s third-lowest. They hammered the run-vulnerable Vikings last week with a 58 percent rush rate; only the Titans were more run heavy in Week 12.
San Francisco, unsurprisingly, has the third-lowest pass rate over expectation -- their actual called pass rate minus their expected pass rate -- over the season’s past four weeks, per Establish The Run’s Michael Leone.
No Niners pass catcher has run more pass routes or seen more targets than Aiyuk since Week 9. Deebo Samuel converting to some sort of unstoppable hybrid role has made Aiyuk the team’s default No. 1 receiver. Now Deebo is sidelined with a groin injury, which should free up some targets for Aiyuk, though not many considering Deebo had commanded a measly 11 targets over his past three outings.
In Week 13, against a fledgling Seahawks defense -- and a Seattle offense incapable of sustaining drives -- we could see the Niners run it 50 times. Aiyuk’s ceiling is only accessible if game script goes completely sideways for Shanahan and the 49ers. He should be fine as a low-end WR2 though.
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Week 13 Targets: Decoded
Foster Moreau (LV) vs. WFT
It turns out my wife and children don’t care all that much that Moreau would be a top-five fantasy tight end with a season-long starting role. The 7-11 clerks didn’t care either. My mom feigned interest but I know she wasn’t really listening.
Moreau gets another start in place of Darren Waller, who suffered a knee injury on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. Moreau came in and was targeted four times on 27 routes with Waller sidelined. Forget that he caught only one pass against Dallas. The usage was excellent.
In his Week 7 start against the tight end friendly Eagles, Moreau ran a route on 89 percent of Derek Carr’s drop backs and caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a score. It was the stuff of streaming tight end fantasies.
This week, the Island of Dr. Moreau (read a book, zoomers) goes against a Washington defense allowing a 21.4 percent target share (7.57 targets per game) to tight ends. It’s a top-10 rate, but Washington is hardly among the most generous defenses to tight ends. The Football Team’s coverage unit has been a liability for much of the 2021 season though. Only the Jaguars, Lions, and Jets have a higher drop back EPA than the Football Team. They can be had by tight ends: Just last week, Gerald Everett somehow mustered five receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown on nine targets in the dead-on-arrival Seahawks offense. Seattle tight ends totaled seven catches on a dozen targets against Washington.
A full complement of snaps and pass routes, the Raiders’ decent implied total (26 points), the team’s pass-heavy tendency (sixth-highest neutral pass rate), and Washington’s vulnerable secondary make Moreau -- in my extremely humble opinion -- a top-12 Week 13 option.
Jack Doyle (IND) vs. HOU
Doyle sees at least five targets in three straight games and I get giddy about writing him up in this space. I have an illness. Someone help me.
The ultimate dad runner has recently separated himself from the other Indy tight ends as the offense’s primary route runner and pass catcher. His peripherals aren’t fantastic, but no Colts tight end is going to post eye-popping usage numbers barring a rash of tight end injuries. Doyle over the past three weeks has run a route on 51.9 percent of Carson Wentz’s drop backs. Mo Alie-Cox is second among Colts tight ends during that stretch with a 41.1 percent route rate. Rookie TE Kylen Gransen, meanwhile, has a 16 percent route rate.
Doyle’s target per pass route rate has spiked of late. Over his three games with five or more targets -- including last week’s six-catch, 81-yard, one-touchdown outing against Tampa -- Doyle has seen a target on 30.91 percent of his routes. Alie-Cox’s rate over that span? A lowly 11.36 percent. Colts WR1 Michael Pittman has been targeted on 19.38 percent of his routes in the team’s past three contests.
Doyle in Week 13 satisfies a key part of the tight end streaming process: He’s in an objectively good fantasy environment, with the Colts sporting the week’s fourth-highest implied total (27.5 points) against a Houston defense allowing the league’s fifth-highest drop back success rate since Week 7. Tight ends have seen a 23 percent target share against the Texans through Week 12, the eighth highest rate in the NFL.
It’s possible (probable) the Colts choose to annihilate the Texans via the run in Week 13. That would limit opportunity for every Indianapolis pass catcher. But Doyle remains a reasonable process-based tight end option in deeper formats.
