In many ways, the fantasy season is like a 4-month long exam. And if you’re like me, I always found some weird enjoyment in taking a deep dive into the results: analyzing what went right, where your rationale failed you and, equally as important, where you got lucky as hell with guesses. For this week’s article, since fantasy trade deadlines have either passed or are about to, I decided to switch things up a bit – I want to do a retrospective look at some of the recommended “buys” and “sells” from this column over the course of the season, and see what transpired: you know, the good, the bad and the ugly.
While this exercise will be humbling to be self-critical on the misses and elicit some fist pumps on the hits, the most important part will be reevaluating the thought process behind the recommendations. Like with all facets of fantasy football (i.e. drafting, setting lineups, etc.), predicting the future is not easy, and so while it’s not realistic to expect to be correct 100% of the time, we strive to be right more often than wrong by using sound reasoning. Over a large enough sample size, that sound reasoning should allow you to be correct at least 51% of the time.
In fantasy football, and specifically when talking about trades, the sample size is much smaller. Let’s say, for example, you execute three trades over the course of the season. Your success rate in improving your team can be 100%, 67%, 33%, or 0%, if we assume for simplicity that every trade either helps or hurts your team. Echoing the words of the first column prior to Week 5, your goal should be to win your league (2nd place is the first loser!), so introducing the chaos of those above success percentages can help you accomplish that feat. What’s more, this analysis doesn’t even include trades that help both sides - you know, the traditional intent of trading.
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So let’s take a look at a few “buys” and “sells” that went right and a few that went wrong. I’m going to concentrate more on the recommendations from earlier in the season, since the more recent ones need more time to take shape before we can judge.
“Buys” that went right
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals: Mixon was a “buy” prior to Week 5, as he was returning from injury. I specifically remember seeing Mixon dropped in a league during his short injury. I’m sure most people didn’t assume Giovani Bernard was going to completely take over the Cincinnati backfield, but there seemed to be some pessimism with Mixon at that point in the season. Prior to his Week 2 injury, Mixon was used as a workhorse, was involved in the passing game and looked much quicker and decisive compared to last year. It was reported that he slimmed down this offseason, and while those reports are usually just puff pieces, this one looked meaningful in Weeks 1 and 2. Admittedly, this call might have been a little lucky at first since Bernard proceeded to get injured just as Mixon returned. But now that Bernard is back, he’s pretty much just replaced Mark Walton’s role behind Mixon.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers: After Week 8, I wrote, “Smith-Schuster started the season hot, eclipsing 110 receiving yards in each of his first three weeks. He’s only accomplished that feat once in the last four weeks, while failing to top 60 yards receiving in the other three. Moving forward, Smith-Schuster will probably live somewhere between those two thresholds.” In the three games since then, Smith-Schuster has tallied yardage totals of 93, 103 (receiving + rushing) and 104. In this case, there just wasn’t a plausible explanation for the slip in production in those later four weeks, except for it just being a slight correction from his fast start.
Nick Chubb, RB, Browns: Admittedly, calling Chubb a “buy” prior to Week 9 made me a little nervous since he was an early down back on a below average team. While the upcoming schedule was against defenses that had been fruitful to opposing running backs, they were still good teams so the worry was about Chubb getting game-scripted out. However, the Browns fell behind to the Steelers in Week 8 and Chubb still got his 18 carries, so the Browns seemed committed to feeding him. In the two weeks that followed, Chubb had a productive game against the Chiefs and then tore up the Falcons. Look for Chubb to stay hot moving forward, especially with the Bengals on deck.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons, Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers, Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings, & Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs: I’m grouping these guys together at the end of this section because it’s not surprising to anybody that these elite receivers started producing at a higher rate. While you likely had to pay a steep price to acquire them, at least their production increased right when or soon after the “buy” recommendation.
“Buys” that went wrong
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: After Week 4, I recommended buying Gronk, thinking it was a just a slow start, and he was primed to explode back to elite TE status. While he’s had a fine floor when on the field, he just hasn’t produced, nor has he looked like vintage Gronk. He’s obviously been dealing with a nagging back injury in recent weeks and, since the Patriots don’t believe in transparency when reporting about ailing players, it’s tough to know exactly when that really started bothering him. Perhaps Gronk will be well-rested after the Week 11 bye and he returns to form. Or maybe this injury and/or the culmination of injuries and surgeries over the years have taken their toll, and Gronk could just be running out of gas. We shall see.
John Brown, WR, Ravens: Admittedly, I probably should have forewarned readers that I have been a big believer in Smokey’s potential dating back to his Arizona days. Throw in a fresh destination with an underwhelming supporting WR cast and an “elite” QB (is he?) - what could go wrong?! Brown was a regular in the “buy” section, first prior to Week 6 in hopes of taking the next step from underrated production in Weeks 1 through 5 and then again prior to Week 8 with a favorable upcoming schedule. Brown appeared in the article yet again prior to Week 10, again noting a great schedule and cheap cost to acquire. However, that was also before we learned that Flacco’s injury was more than a nagging issue. The takeaway here is that Brown’s deep threat skill set, while attached to an underwhelming quarterback situation, is just too volatile to count on.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals: Boyd was looking like a much-improved player in the opening weeks of the season, and the hope was that he could form a consistent one-two punch alongside A.J. Green. Boyd actually hasn’t been bad, with a mix of ceiling and floor games, but it’s a bit disappointing he hasn’t taken off in Green’s absence the past two weeks. Boyd is a good player, but perhaps he was feasting somewhat on single coverage while defenses were worried about stopping Green. I also violated my own personal rule of trusting Andy Dalton.
“Sells” that went right
Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons: Whew boy, I got a lot of flack for this one - which is ironic, since, not to toot my own horn, but this felt like one of the easier calls to make. The recommendation to sell Ridley came right after six receiving touchdowns in Weeks 2 through 4, and in the six games since then, he’s had a grand total of one (1). Ridley has actually been a great addition to the Falcons’ offense, as he still had at least three receptions and at least 32 yards in all six of those games. That type of consistent production surely forces opposing defenses to stay honest instead of triple-covering receiving mate Julio Jones. From a fantasy perspective however, Ridley’s Weeks 2 through 4 scoring binge was a classic case of impending touchdown regression. Being a first-round rookie, fantasy owners were likely over-excited with Ridley, but with Julio Jones vacuuming up targets ahead of him, Ridley was very unlikely to continue scoring at such a high rate. When determining player value, try to keep touchdown scoring in perspective.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Jets: Crowell was fresh off a demolition of the Broncos, rushing for 219 yards in Week 5, but looking back just one week, he “gained” 0 yards on four carries against the Jaguars in Week 4 and failed to eclipse 40 yards rushing in three of the first five weeks. Even though the Jets had won a couple games up until that point, I doubt they were very high on any power rankings. Being an early down back on a bad team, and having already shown a scary yardage floor, Crowell was a pretty confident “sell high” at the time. Since that time, he’s failed to eclipse 50 yards rushing with just one touchdown.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: The recommendation to sell DJax came in the midst of what I’ll refer to as the “Tampa Bay Honeymoon Phase”: four blissful weeks of Fitzmagic and DJax looking like vintage DJax. However, the passing game was destined to come back down to earth, and a deeper look into DJax’s playing time revealed he was splitting snaps with Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries. He’s maintained a floor but hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since Week 4.
“Sells” that went wrong
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: After Week 7, the recommendation to sell Big Ben was a schedule-related call. Roethlisberger proceeded to maintain his solid production, mixing in a Week 10 dismantling of the Panthers. The takeaway here is that schedules are just part of the equation, and defenses will get better or regress over the course of the season. Looking back only gives us a clue about the future. Also, Roethlisberger is just a good veteran quarterback with a good offensive line and a dangerous arsenal of passing game weapons. I suppose that was enough to overcome the tough schedule, which also rings true for the next guy on this list.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys: The reason for placing Elliott in the “sell” section after Week 9 (but prior to the Cowboys’ Monday night Week 9 game) was a combination of a tough upcoming schedule and trying to make a bit of a bold call. If I’m going to recommend that you buy Julio Jones, it makes sense to try to predict other players that might experience a dip in production that you can maybe trade away to acquire those elite players. Like Roethlisberger, Elliott might just be good enough to overcome tough matchups. Also, prior to that Monday night Week 9 game, the Cowboys fired their offensive line coach, Paul Alexander, and promoted Marc Colombo. That change seems to have energized the Cowboys offensive line. One could also argue that the acquisition of Amari Cooper has helped to open up the field, so he may be seeing less stacked boxes than he otherwise would.
