Anticipation is the key to late-season waiver adds. Which teams are going to mail it in over the final month of the regular season? How will postseason pushes affect playing time and target and carry distribution?
A magic eight ball helps, but is not mandatory. I’ve had better luck with black magic anyway.
Below are Week 15 waiver priorities, along with crowdsourced free agent budget data from fantasy football researcher Freeman Smith. Hopefully Smith’s data (from his FAAB Lab) helps you wrap your head around how your league mates will value waiver wire players this week.
| Priority | Player | Team | Position | Rostership % |
| 1. | D.J. Chark | DET | WR | 40% |
| 2. | Zay Jones | JAC | WR | 50% |
| 3. | Elijah Moore | NYJ | WR | 27% |
| 4. | Jeff Driskel | HOU | TE/QB | 0% |
| 5. | Evan Engram | JAC | TE | 55% |
| 6. | Travis Homer | SEA | RB | 38% |
| 7. | Parris Campbell | IND | WR | 33% |
| 8. | Jordan Mason | SF | RB | 11% |
| 9. | Khalil Herbert | CHI | RB | 37% |
| 10. | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | QB | 11% |
Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke (WAS)
Rostership: 11 percent
We all know what Washington wants to do on offense. They want to run it at every opportunity, kick some field goals, and escape with a win. That offers fleeting fantasy value for Heinicke, who had fewer than 30 attempts in four straight games before Week 13’s tie with the Giants.
The Commanders once again face the Giants in Week 15, two weeks after Heinicke threw 41 passes against them. The Giants, you see, are a pass funnel defense. Most New York opponents are shifting (slightly) toward the pass this year.
I’m not saying the Commanders will be pass heavy this week. In Week 13 against the Giants, they were 10 percent below their expected pass rate. Washington has been below its expected pass rate in every game since Week 6. Against a secondary allowing the league’s seventh highest EPA per drop back, Heinicke could find a path to a solid QB2 showing on Sunday night.
Desmond Ridder (ATL)
Rostership: 4 percent
Arthur Smith‘s retro offense has a new quarterback. The Marcus Mariota Experiment has come to its natural endpoint and the Falcons are moving on to Ridder, who completed 61 percent of his preseason passes for three touchdowns and two interceptions at 7.7 yards per attempt.
Ridder under center will likely mean a slight bump in passing volume for the run-heaviest offense in the NFL. He’s nothing more than a floor option in deeper formats who has no ceiling outcome because the Falcons run the ball no matter what. You simply have to respect it.
Other quarterbacks to roster
Jordan Love (2 percent): I would not be stunned if the Packers gave Love a start or two (or three?) in the season’s final month once they’ve been eliminated from postseason contention. Love, who appeared to be an entirely different quarterback a couple weeks ago against the Eagles, is a sneaky pick up for fantasy managers without an elite QB.
Colt McCoy (1 percent): McCoy is set to start the final four games of Arizona’s miserable season following Kyler Murray‘s season-ending ACL injury. He instantly becomes a must-get waiver option in superflex leagues and a streaming play in deeper one-QB formats. Coming into Week 14, McCoy had been highly accurate (71 percent completion rate) on dinks and dunks (6.1 adjusted yard attempt) in relief of Murray in 2022. Importantly for fantasy purposes, McCoy has peppered DeAndre Hopkins with targets. Thirty-seven percent of McCoy’s attempts have gone Hopkins’ way this season.
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
Running Back
Editor’s note: Zonovan Knight is rostered in any semi-competitive league, I get it. His rostership sits at 55 percent, so I want to be sure the good readers of this column know Knight is a must-get over the below running back waiver options. Michael Carter’s Week 14 return meant very little for Knight, who played fewer snaps than Carter but had 17 rushes to five for Carter (James Robinson was a healthy scratch). The most elusive back in the league, per Pro Football Focus, Knight has clearly earned the trust of Jets coaches and will remain the team’s lead back for the remainder of the year. He could be somewhat game script dependent since Carter profiles as the Jets’ primary pass-catching back.
Travis Homer (SEA)
Rostership: 38 percent
Contrary to pregame reports from a certain prominent national NFL reporter, Travis Homer dominated backfield snaps and touches in Week 14 against the Panthers. It didn’t lead to much: Nine rushes for 26 yards and two catches on three targets for eight yards. Nevertheless, we persist.
Tony Jones barely played against the Panthers while DeeJay Dallas was sidelined with injury. Homer should again operate as the Seahawks’ top back in Week 15 if Dallas and Ken Walker remain sidelined. His Week 15 matchup against the Niners is the stuff of nightmares.
Jordan Mason (SF)
Rostership: 11 percent
Mason saw extended run in garbage time against the ruinously bad Bucs in Week 14. The rookie carried the ball 11 times for 56 yards to kill the clock in the fourth quarter.
Mason would probably be the Niners’ lead back if Christian McCaffrey misses any of the final four weeks of the regular season. Maybe Kyle Shanahan will make this prediction look silly. I’ll take my chances.
Khalil Herbert (CHI)
Rostership: 37 percent
Herbert is something of a speculative add at this point in the season. He’s expected to remain sidelined with a hip injury in Week 15 but could return for Week 16. Picking up Herbert now would be a contingency measure for a late-season David Montgomery injury.
Herbert, who for a second straight season has been uber efficient, would be a borderline RB1 in the run-first Chicago offense if he gets a start in the final couple weeks of the regular season. Herbert ranks sixth in PFF’s elusive rating this season. No running back has a higher rush yards over expected per attempt than Herbert.
Gary Brightwell (NYG)
Rostership: 1 percent
Saquon Barkley‘s neck injury limited him to a meager three snaps in the first quarter against the Eagles in Week 14. Barkley had nine carries and saw just two targets before the game got out of hand. His wondrous start to 2022 seems like a decade ago.
Brightwell is the Giants running back to roster for if (when?) the Giants rest Barkley in the coming weeks, perhaps as soon as Week 15 against Washington. Brightwell tied Matt Breida with 22 snaps against the Eagles last week and had a 5-3 lead in rushing attempts over Breida. Brightwell has been good this season on his 14-carry sample size, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 4.2 yards before contact per attempt. Breida and Brightwell split passing down work against Philadelphia. Brightwell strikes me as the Giants back with far more juice than the well-traveled veteran.
Rex Burkhead (HOU)
Rostership: 3 percent
Dameon Pierce is expected to miss the next week or two with a high ankle sprain and the Texans -- for some reason -- waived Eno Benjamin on Tuesday. Burkhead, the most inevitable player in fantasy history, looks to be set up for lead back duties in Week 15 against Kansas City. His passing game work will likely be curtailed by Dare Ogunbowale, who last week against the Cowboys led Texans backs in pass routes and targets.
Other running backs to roster
Damien Harris (50 percent): Harris’ rostership has plummeted over the past six weeks as he’s battled a string of injuries that gave Rhamondre Stevenson a path to backfield domination. Harris could find himself with the lead back role if Stevenson’s ankle injury is a long-term issue. Don’t expect Harris to inherit much of the Patriots’ passing down work though.
Marlon Mack (3 percent): Mack ate into Latavius Murray‘s snaps and routes last week against Kansas City and took a screen pass 66 yards to the house. He played every snap in the Broncos’ two-minute offense against KC. Mack looked spry and explosive; Murray looked like he always looks, stiff and slow. Maybe the Broncos will want to see what they have in Mack -- a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 -- before season’s end. Mike Boone', meanwhile, will miss the rest of the year with an ankle injury. Stash Mack at the end of your bench and pay close attention to what Denver coaches say about the team’s backfield this week.
Kevin Harris (0 percent): Harris stepped in admirably for Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) on Monday night, rushing eight times for 26 yards and a touchdown against Arizona’s stout rush defense. He led the Patriots backfield with a 41 percent route rate but did not see a target. Pierre Strong mixed in during the second half and had a splash play on one of his five rushes. Probably JJ Taylor will be called up from the practice squad if Stevenson and Damien Harris are sidelined in Week 15, making the New England backfield an indecipherable mess for fantasy purposes.
Pierre Strong (1 percent): The rookie played behind Kevin Harris on Monday night following Rhamondre Stevenson‘s ankle injury. Strong had two targets on eight routes while rushing for 70 yards on five carries. Strong has a decent chance of taking on pass-catching duties unless JJ Taylor is called up from the practice squad in Week 15.
Raheem Blackshear (0 percent): I may or may not have told you two months ago that Blackshear is the Panthers’ best backfield option. Blackshear once again proved me right in Week 14 against Seattle, going for 32 yards and a touchdown on four carries and leading Carolina backs in pass routes. Yes, he’s trapped in a hideous three-way backfield split, but Blackshear could emerge as a quietly solid fantasy play if Chuba Hubbard or D’Onta Foreman get banged up in the next few weeks.
Justin Jackson (1 percent): The Lions seem to love Jackson, who in Week 14 took over D’Andre Swift‘s role as the team’s primary third down back. An injury to Swift in the season’s final weeks would put Jackson in solid position to challenge for a dozen touches. He would of course lose out on goal line work to Jamaal Williams.
Boston Scott (1 percent): The Eagles are headed toward a meaningless final week or two of the regular season. Scott would probably run as the team’s lead back if the Eagles rest their starters in either of those contests. You know what to do.
Kyren Williams (35 percent): I’m so tired of writing about Rams running backs, I could cry. In fact, I am crying. I’m bawling. Anyway, Williams is the team’s main pass-catching back and could see a handful of targets if the Rams are chasing points early and often this week against the Packers.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Chark (DET)
Rostership: 40 percent
Chark over Detroit’s past two outings has run a full complement of routes and operated as Jared Goff‘s primary downfield threat. No other Lions pass catcher is close to Chark’s 14.2 average depth of target over the past two games.
Fresh off a 94-yard, one-touchdown performance against Minnesota, Chark needs to be started in 12-team leagues that start at least three wideouts. His role in a productive Lions passing attack is too valuable to turn down right now. Detroit has shown it’s willing to lean heavily on the passing game. That should keep route and target volume inflated for Chark.
Zay Jones (JAC)
Rostership: 50 percent
We’re doing the Zay Jones thing again. He followed up his Week 13 dud with an eruption game against the Titans -- a somewhat predictable outcome against one of the NFL’s most extreme pass funnel defenses.
Jones will continue to be game script dependent. He needs massive route and target volume to put up WR2/3 fantasy numbers. In Week 14 against the Titans, he got it. And he could get it again this week against heavily-favored Dallas. Only eight wideouts have more targets than Jones since Week 10, and only six have more receptions. Fantasy managers should have confidence in Jones as a PPR scam this week.
Elijah Moore (NYJ)
Rostership: 27 percent
It only took three and a half months but Moore is finally a full-time player in the New York offense. He ran 90 percent of the team’s routes in Week 14 against the Bills and commanded a team-high nine targets. Moore caught six for 60 yards.
Primarily playing out of the slot, Moore is now among the beneficiaries of ballooning pass volume for the Jets offense. As long as Zach Wilson is not under center for the Jets, Moore has a shot to be fantasy relevant down the stretch.
Parris Campbell (IND)
Rostership: 33 percent
Matt Ryan will keep his starting gig out of the bye week -- a positive development for Campbell. Ryan’s full-time slot guy should see decent volume. From Week 6-13, only Michael Pittman had a higher target share than Campbell, who profiles strictly as a PPR option.
Jameson Williams (DET)
Rostership: 36 percent
Still recovering from a 2021 ACL injury, Williams ran a grand total of six pass routes, drew two targets from Jared Goff, and caught one for a wide-open 41-yard score in Week 14 against Minnesota. While this certainly constitutes progress in Williams’ role in the Detroit offense, this ramping-up process has been decidedly slow.
I’m not discounting Williams as a potential fantasy playoffs hero. That’s in the range of outcomes here with the Lions adopting a more aggressive downfield passing approach in recent weeks. But you’re risking a zero in your lineup if Williams in Week 15 runs 20 or 30 percent of the team’s routes and doesn’t hit on a deep ball.
Other receivers to roster
Nico Collins (25 percent): Collins missed last week with a foot injury. If he’s able to return this week against the Chiefs, he should resume his role as Houston’s No. 1 wideout. From Week 10-13, Collins had a team-leading 25 percent target share. The Texans should be forced to pass quite a bit in a game they’re destined to lose by 11 touchdowns.
Alec Pierce (13 percent): I’m surprised Pierce isn’t more highly rostered after his big Week 13 performance against Dallas. He’s coming off a strong 75 percent routes rate against Dallas (catching four of eight targets for 84 yards and a score), his playing time is increasing, and Jeff Saturday is ready and willing “to evaluate every position this week and try to make sure they’ve got the best 11 on the field,” according to beat writer George Bremer. A philosophical shift -- playing the best plays -- should put Pierce in position to operate as something close to an every-down receiver for the next month. More playing time would make sense for a rookie wideout who’s a close second in yards per route run among Indy pass catchers. Matt Ryan‘s dying right arm could pose a problem for Pierce’s fantasy upside.
Chris Moore (2 percent): Moore was the season’s best sicko DFS play in Week 14 against the Cowboys, when he led the Texans with 10 catches for 124 yards. Moore enjoyed a 94 percent route rate. I would suspect Brandin Cooks’ days with Houston are over, making room for Moore to continue as an every-down receiver alongside Nico Collins. Another week of passing volume this Sunday against the Chiefs could fuel another high-target day for Moore.
Tutu Atwell (0 percent): The Rams have a faint offensive pulse with a rebranded Baker Mayfield at the helm for LA. It’s allowed the Rams to finally use the micro-sized Atwell in the screen game and downfield. Running 55.8 percent of his routes from the slot in the Cooper Kupp-less Rams offense, Atwell leads LA in targets over the past three games. He has the team’s highest yards per route run and the most air yards over that span. Sean McVay seems determined to force the ball to Atwell. It’s time we notice.
Nelson Agholor (2 percent): If Jakobi Meyers (brain) and DeVante Parker (brain) are out this week, Agholor has as good a chance as any New England wideout of leading the team in targets. He did just that on Monday night against Arizona. Agholor had a 100 percent route rate, mostly as the slot guy, and caught five balls for 32 yards. No other Patriots receiver had more than five targets against the Cards.
Rashid Shaheed (0 percent): Shahid over the past few weeks became the Saints’ No. 2 wideout, supplanting both Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway. Running a full complement of pass routes in a balanced New Orleans offense, Shaheed has six catches for 129 yards over the team’s past two games. He secured all four of his targets for 76 yards in Week 13’s loss to Tampa, before New Orleans’ bye. This week Shaheed matches up with an Atlanta defense allowing the NFL’s highest rate of positive pass plays.
Jahan Dotson (15 percent): Dotson in Week 13 -- before the Commanders’ bye -- ran a full complement of routes and had eight targets, catching five for 54 yards and a score against the Giants. Keep in mind that Washington’s offensive play volume (85 snaps) was way higher than it usually is (67 snaps). One of the run heaviest teams in the NFL, the Commanders are not going to air it out unless they have no other choice. Dotson’s floor remains nonexistent in such an environment.
Ben Skowronek (3 percent): Skowronek in Week 14 was second on the team with eight targets while running nearly every route. Mayfield hit Skowronek for seven catches and 94 yards. He’s a thin play but you could (barely) do worse.
Mack Hollins (30 percent): A victim of the Raiders’ mind-boggling conservatism in their dreadful Week 14 loss to the Rams, Hollins still has a fantasy pulse as the No. 3 target in the Vegas passing offense. Darren Waller‘s possible Week 15 return would complicate Hollins’ path to fantasy-viable volume though.
Trent Sherfield (2 percent): Tyreek Hill‘s ankle (shin?) injury -- the one that kept him sidelined for much of the second half against the Chargers -- could be disastrous for Miami’s offense. Nothing works without Hill’s game-breaking speed. Tua likely isn’t startable in 12-team leagues if Hill is out. To the point though: Sherfield is the team’s WR3 who would see a substantial routes and target boost if Hill misses Week 15 against Buffalo. Ignore his 1.4 yards per route run and pick up Sherfield just in case.
Tight Ends
Jeff Driskel (HOU)
Rostership: 0 percent
We have a full-on Taysom situation in Houston. Driskel was used as a read-option rotational quarterback in the red zone last week against Dallas, logging eight rushes for 36 yards and completing four of six pass attempts for 38 yards and a touchdown to Chris Moore. Driskel and Davis Mills each played 33 snaps against the Cowboys.
Even a half dozen rushing attempts for a tight end-eligible player could put said player in TE1 territory, as we’ve seen with Taysom Hill in New Orleans. If the Texans stick with their quarterback rotation in Week 15 -- head coach Lovie Smith wouldn’t commit to the 2-QB system going forward -- Driskel is a sly little fantasy option who could be used over every tight end but the elites. Snatch him up if you’re streaming tight ends.
Evan Engram (JAC)
Rostership: 55 percent
Don’t lose your mind over Engram’s wild Week 14 stat line (11 catches, 162 yards, two touchdowns). Does it prove we exist in a vast and undetectable computer simulation? Maybe. Does it mean you should pick up Engram and play him over Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson or even David Njoku this week? No.
I’ve told you once or twice or 78 times in this space that Engram runs every route in the Jacksonville offense. He’s been among the tight end route leaders since September. We knew this going into Week 14. His pre-Week 14 target per route run rate (15 percent) was abysmal, indicating Engram had been a tertiary target in a Jaguars offense that desperately wants to be balanced. That Engram went off against a shoddy Tennessee secondary in a game where Trevor Lawrence dropped back 43 times shouldn’t change the way we perceive him.
Still, he should be rostered and started in 12-team leagues. Just remember: Engram is the same guy who managed five catches over a recent four-game span with a route rate of 90 percent. He sports one of the NFL’s lowest open scores, measuring how open a pass catcher gets. In Week 15, Engram faces a Dallas defense allowing the 14th most tight end receptions.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN)
Rostership: 14 percent
Okonkwo had posted elite peripheral numbers across the board on a limited sample coming into Week 14 against the Jaguars. His ability to earn targets on precious few pass routes was something to behold. Well, he did it again in Week 14, catching all six of his targets for 45 yards and a touchdown on a mere 24 routes. Okonkwo has now been targeted on a heady 26 percent of his routes in 2022. He is an explosive pass catcher, per the analytics.
Okonkwo, with Treylon Burks (brain) sidelined, saw increased usage outside of the team’s two tight end sets, though Austin Hooper ran more routes and saw five targets against the Jaguars. He’ll be a thin tight end streamer if the Titans can play how they want to play in Week 15 against the Chargers and establish the run like it’s 1981, but Okonkwo is viable in deeper leagues. Chasing this sort of tight end efficiency usually proves … suboptimal.
Hunter Henry (NE)
Rostership: 51 percent
Henry made the most of his three targets against the Cardinals on Monday, reeling in all three for 70 yards. He now has at least three receptions in four of his past six games. It’s not much, I know, but we’re scraping bottom here.
Brain injuries for Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker could open up some targets for Henry in Week 15.
Other tight ends to roster
Tyler Conklin (26 percent): Conklin’s route rate fluctuates too much to recommend him as anything more than a last-ditch streaming option in 12-team leagues. In Week 14, he ran a route on 34 of the Jets’ 52 drop backs and saw seven targets. Whatever. He’s fine.
Daniel Bellinger (5 percent): Returning to the Giants lineup in Week 14, Bellinger had a 100 percent route rate against the Eagles before suffering a rib injury in the second half. New York’s terribly run-heavy offense is incapable of producing much target volume for anyone. Bellinger is a touchdown-or-bust option.
Mitchell Wilcox (0 percent): Subbing for injured Bengals TE Hayden Hurst, Wilcox was ninth among all tight ends in pass routes last week against Cleveland. He saw two targets. Consider Wilcox in your points per nihilism leagues.
Kicker
Robbie Gould (SF)
Rostership: 45 percent
If Gould is rostered in your league, I’m sorry. Please find it in your degenerate heart to forgive me, your fifth favorite waiver wire analyst.
Gould is in a superb spot this week. The Niners are three-point road favorites against a Seattle defense that has devolved into the league’s worst run-stopping unit. Against Kyle Shanahan‘s run-first system, the 49ers should have little problem carving up the Seabags. As Seattle has fallen apart, they’ve allowed three field goal tries in each of their past three games. Gould, meanwhile, is averaging two field goals and 3.5 extra points per game in 49ers wins.
Joey Slye (WAS)
Rostership: 2 percent
With multiple field goal tries in four of his past six games -- including four of Washington’s past five victories -- Slye is as reliable a kicker as you’re going to find on the wire. He’s once again viable with the Commanders at home (even if 70 percent of the fans will be wearing visiting jerseys) against the Giants. Washington is a 3.5-point total in what should be an ugly, low-scoring affair.
The G-people have allowed the third most field goal attempts (32) and a league-high 3.9 red zone possessions per game. Unless things really go sideways quickly for the Commanders, Slye is a lock for multiple field goals here.
Greg Joseph (MIN)
Rostership: 20 percent
I keep touting Joseph not because I lost a bet or made a deal with Satan, but because he almost always fits the kicker process. Joseph is attached to a good offense and the Vikings are almost always favored and sport a high implied total. Minnesota’s down-bad defense has wrecked game script for Joseph more than a couple times this season.
The Vikings are favored by four this week against the Colts, a team that’s all but thrown in the towel on their failed 2022 campaign. That the Colts haven’t allowed all that many field goals (23) doesn’t bother me too much. Joseph is a process play. Hold your nose and do it. Try not to vomit.
