Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
All that brain power you put into your fantasy football drafts, all that effort, all that thoughtful consideration fueled by digestion of numbers and reports and trends and, yes, gut feelings -- all of it seems meaningless when the NFL season starts and you once again have the sobering realization that this is a weekly game.
Every season, it dawns on me in the days leading up to Week 1: In seasonal fantasy leagues, we’re optimizing lineups -- maximizing potential points -- for that week and that week alone. It doesn’t matter what you thought of a player when you excitedly drafted him three weeks ago. If circumstances have changed, if there’s a superior player sitting on the waiver wire, whatever you once thought -- whatever you believed deep down in your brainstem -- no longer holds weight. Those thoroughly considered player valuations, like all your thoughts, belong to the past.
You want to score fantasy points, and you’ll do what needs to be done to achieve said goal.
To pick up an undrafted player and (possibly) plug him into your lineup over a guy you drafted with uninhibited glee is a blow to the ego. It stings. But shelving your precious feelings and being objective about your weekly fantasy lineup is the surest sign of a winner, someone who -- despite the injured ego -- will do what’s necessary to score some damn points.
It recalls the practice of “killing your darlings,” a quote (and practice) with which writers might be familiar. To kill your darlings is to ax the pretty little phrases you create while filling a blank page with your ramblings. These phrases might make you feel like a hulking intellectual beast, a master of language, but if they serve no purpose other than junking up a sentence -- if these darlings have no utility -- they must go. The ego is never pleased by this. It fights back, begging to keep your little darlings. A good writer knows this will not do. You highlight the darling, hit delete, and move on.
Fantasy managers must also kill their darlings. However much a player means to you, you must sometimes let them go. Maybe that means stashing them until they have an avenue to targets or carries. Perhaps it means cutting them and freeing up a critical spot on your roster. Usually this mindset is molded by years of (painful) experience and fruitless battles with yourself over a player’s fantasy usefulness. Knowing when to say when, not wasting precious weeks hoping against hope that a player will achieve the glory you forecasted in the summer, is a key to fantasy football success. I take no pleasure in writing this.
I’ll be here all season, using this space to highlight waiver wire adds who might be immediately useful or a long-term end-of-bench stash who could, suddenly one day, become a godsend for your fantasy squad. I’ll do my best to look ahead for guys who could bolster your roster as the chaos of the NFL season takes hold. Also, I’ll be answering all your waiver questions every Tuesday at 1 ET on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
Top 10 NFL Week 1 Waiver Adds
No. | Player | Position | Team | % Rostered |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Rondale Moore | WR | ARZ | 29% |
2. | Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | 32% |
3. | Rachaad White | RB | TB | 35% |
4. | Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | 41% |
5. | Jeff Wilson | RB | SF | 10% |
6. | Josh Palmer | WR | LAC | 21% |
7. | Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | 23% |
8. | Matt Ryan | QB | IND | 45% |
9. | Rex Burkhead | RB | HOU | 5% |
10. | Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | 21% |
Quarterback
Jameis Winston (NO)
Rostership: 46 percent
This is where you tell me that in your league, Winston was the tenth quarterback off the draft board. Well, sorry about all that.
Winston is rostered in less than half of leagues while he preps to take on a leaky Atlanta secondary that last season gave up the fourth highest expected points added (EPA) per drop back, allowing 22.5 fantasy points per game to enemy signal callers. Only the Texans and Jets allowed a higher passing success rate than the Falcons in 2021.
No QB’s pass-catching group has improved as much as Winston’s over the offseason. Chris Olave offers a downfield threat that Winston didn’t have outside a few games with speedster Deonte Harty. With the NFL’s ninth easiest schedule, Winston and the Saints could be a hugely pleasant surprise for fantasy managers stocking their roster with Winston and company.
Matt Ryan (IND)
Rostership: 45 percent
For Week 1 purposes, I prefer Ryan to Winston, if just barely, as the Colts take on Houston. Ryan heads up a talent-packed Colts offense that head coach Frank Reich claims will be more pass heavy than it was in 2021 when the team made every effort to hide Carson Wentz. No more of that.
Last season, in what was the worst offense Ryan has quarterbacked, the veteran posted the second lowest average depth of target (7.8) and the third lowest adjusted yards per attempt (6.8) of his 13-year career. Probably that has something to do with Russell Gage being Atlanta’s No. 1 receiver. I wouldn’t read too much into Ryan’s declining peripherals from last year.
The Texans, as mentioned above, are fresh off allowing the highest passing success rate in the league last season. Sure, they’ve made additions to the secondary; I don’t think it’s enough to back off matchups against what should be a generous defense. The Colts, with the third softest schedule in the league this year, could have far more fantasy potential than managers believe headed into 2022. If they do shift to a more balanced offense, Ryan should offer a rock-solid weekly floor -- and a ceiling in favorable matchups like he has on opening day.
Other quarterbacks to roster: If you’re somehow in one of the 40 percent of leagues where Justin Fields is available, go ahead and pick him up, along with Marcus Mariota (9 percent). Both quarterbacks’ rushing potential makes them potential cheat codes. In superflex leagues, Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley, and Desmond Ridder should be rostered. The Giants have the easiest schedule in the NFL, so one would assume Daniel Jones (27 percent) will have some fantasy viability. Playing behind an atrocious offensive line and learning yet another playbook raises serious questions about whether Jones can be reliable in one-QB formats, however. Our best hope is he returns to his days of higher rushing volume (and production).
Running Back
Khalil Herbert (CHI)
Rostership: 41 percent
Herbert, a staple for Zero RB and Hero RB drafters over the past thirty days, should be stashed in far more leagues. While there’s not much indication Herbert will eat into David Montgomery‘s starting gig in the Chicago backfield, Herbert would become a workhorse three-down back if Montgomery were to once again miss time.
Herbert took over as Chicago’s top back from Week 5 to Week 8 with David Montgomery sidelined, scoring the 17th most running back PPR points over that span (while scoring a single touchdown on 89 touches). Only eight running backs had a higher yards after contact per carry in those four weeks. A mere six backs posted a higher evasion rate than Herbert from Week 5 to Week 8. He might be really good.
Rachaad White (TB)
Rostership: 35 percent
I know, I know. In your league, White was taken in the seventh round. In normal leagues, however, he’s floundering on the waiver wire and should be snatched up, posthaste.
Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer said two weeks ago that White, a rookie, “will have a role” in Tampa’s offense this season. Breer called White “the best pass game running back” Tom Brady has had in Tampa. The Athletic’s Greg Auman, meanwhile, reported this week that the Bucs would “much prefer” to lighten Leonard Fournette‘s hefty workload in 2022.
White would be a top-12 back in PPR formats should Fournette find himself on the sideline with some variety of injury, as he did in 2020 and 2021. Get White while you can.
Jeff Wilson (SF)
Rostership: 10 percent
Wilson is a boring pickup. We’ve been there and done that. He’ll be slightly less boring if (or when) he’s leading the productive San Francisco backfield. Wilson, by every indication, is back to 100 percent after perhaps returning prematurely from a 2020 knee injury last season.
Wilson could be one snap away from seeing upwards of 20 touches a game in a Niners offense that posted the league’s third-lowest pass rate while leading in 2021. Elijah Mitchell, meanwhile, has dealt with a nagging hamstring issue for at least a month. The 49ers backfield wouldn’t be all that murky if Mitchell were to miss time.
Kenyan Drake (BAL)
Rostership: 10 percent
The Ravens love their crusty veteran running backs. They showed as much in 2021 when they rolled with the most washed backfield in recent memory: Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman. They could continue this tradition with Drake, 28, who signed with Baltimore after being released by Vegas.
There’s some evidence Drake might not be cooked. Last year he was a productive pass catcher for the Raiders, catching 30 of his 40 targets for 291 yards and a touchdown before his season-ending ankle injury. He had the sixth highest yard per route run among running backs with at least 30 targets last season. His two yards before contact per carry ranked 20th among running backs in 2021. Drake last year showed a lot more than new backfield mate Mike Davis, who’s available in 74 percent of leagues. Last year in Atlanta, Davis had the NFL’s lowest expected rush yards over expected per attempt
Drake has an excellent shot to lead Baltimore’s backfield if J.K. Dobbins isn’t ready for a full workload to start the season. He’ll be particularly useful in PPR formats.
Rex Burkhead (HOU)
Rostership: 5 percent
For those asking, this is not a bit.
Burkhead, otherwise known as Goathead, starts the season as the Texans’ No. 2 back behind rookie Dameon Pierce, who never handled more than 106 touches in any of his four collegiate seasons. It very much remains to be seen if Pierce can function as a guy who regularly sees 18-20 touches a game in the NFL.
Last season, from Week 11 -- when he took over as Houston’s RB1 -- to season’s end, Burkhead was 12th in expected fantasy points, just a smidge behind Javonte Williams and Devin Singletary. No one of note on Houston’s depth chart behind Pierce and Burkhead means the latter could again see a hefty workload if the Texans lose Pierce for any period of time. The team loves Burkhead. He’s a Cultural Fit. He should be tossed on the end of benches in deeper leagues.
Jaylen Warren (PIT)
Rostership: 2 percent
The undrafted rookie out of Oklahoma State, by all accounts, has that dog in him. Steelers beat writers are nearly unanimous in saying Warren usurped Benny Snell as Pittsburgh’s No. 2 back behind Najee Harris. In the team’s final preseason game, it was Warren who entered the game after Harris was dispatched to the sideline. Snell didn’t see a snap until the second half.
Harris, who led the NFL in touches as a rookie last year, may or may not have a chronic foot issue. He’s more than a month removed from suffering a sprained Lisfranc, and while Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh coaches dismiss the injury as a nonstory, it could quickly become the story for the Steelers offense if Harris misses time in 2022. This wouldn’t be the first time Harris has dealt with a foot issue.
That would likely leave Warren, who had the ninth most rushing attempts (256) and the 23rd most rushing yards (1,256) in college football last season, as the primary ball carrier in what should be a balanced Steelers offense. Warren’s preseason numbers won’t inspire poetry, but the guy spent a whole month climbing up the Steelers’ backfield depth chart and impressing coaches with excellent run blocking and tough running. Tomlin loves himself a tough runner. Warren should be stashed by fantasy managers who largely faded running backs early in their drafts and will need to rotate players in their RB2 spot.
Other running backs to roster: In this section, I’ll primarily highlight bench stashes that should be a priority for fantasy managers who didn’t spend early-round picks on running backs and are ready and willing to churn and burn on the waiver wire until they find a reliable back or two. This week look to Brian Robinson (40 percent rostered), Isiah Pacheco (31 percent), Tyler Allgeier (28 percent), Zamir White (15 percent), D’Onta Foreman (10 percent), Eno Benjamin (8 percent), Jerick McKinnon (5 percent), Zack Moss (4 percent), Chris Evans (2 percent), and Kyren Williams (1 percent).
Wide Receiver
Jarvis Landry (NO)
Rostership: 40 percent
All Landry has done in eight NFL seasons is command targets. As the Saints’ primary slot guy this season, he should continue his run as a PPR scam. Landry also boosts your fantasy team’s dawg quotient (he has that dawg in him, per the analytics).
Landry in 2021 has the NFL’s 11th highest targets per route run among wideouts. He’ll be Jameis Winston‘s underneath security blanket this season as a main part of a New Orleans passing attack that (I think) is vastly underrated by fantasy managers. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Landry becomes an every-week starter in 12-team PPR leagues that start at least three receivers.
Romeo Doubs (GB)
Rostership: 32 percent
Apparently the Doubs propaganda so prevalent on Twitter this summer did not filter into normie fantasy leagues. So it goes.
Aaron Rodgers, a famous hater of rookie receivers, admitted last month that the standard for Doubs -- who had two 1,000-yard seasons in college -- “is not going to be the standard for a normal rookie we’ve had here in the past.” In other words, Doubs might not be iced out of Rodgers’ system like Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams were as rookies. That’s because the Packers enter 2022 with perhaps the NFL’s worst receivers group. Doubs, who was targeted on a whopping 38 percent of his preseason pass routes, could (quickly) emerge as Green Bay’s first or second pass-game option. Allen Lazard‘s mystery absence and somewhat questionable status for Week 1 against Minnesota could result in a full complement of snaps and routes for Doubs.
I don’t think Doubs -- or any other Packers receiver -- is going to dominate targets, however.
Rondale Moore (ARZ)
Rostership: 29 percent
Cardinals beat writers have written extensively this summer about Kliff Kingsbury’s determination to get Moore involved as a central part of the team’s passing offense. The hope, however fleeting, is that the diminutive Moore will be used as more than just a dump off option near the line of scrimmage.
Arizona’s offense will be missing DeAndre Hopkins and his 25 percent target share for the season’s first six weeks, opening up avenues to potentially serious target volume for both Moore and Marquise Brown. In 2021 games that saw Moore run a full complement of routes -- or something close to it -- the rookie averaged six receptions on 6.5 targets. His incredibly high catch rate was due to his horrifying average depth of target (1.2). Nevertheless, we persist.
Moore profiles as an interesting PPR option with Hopkins sidelined. His Week 1 prospects in a potential shootout with Kansas City are intriguing.
Jahan Dotson (WAS)
Rostership: 21 percent
No wideout taken in the first round of the NFL draft should be left on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues until and unless he proves to be a complete bust. There’s zero indication that will be the case for Dotson, Washington’s 2022 first-round pick who has done nothing but impress Commanders coaches, teammates, and beat writers this summer.
Dotson was highly productive in his final two years at Penn State, producing a 38 percent yardage share and 47 percent touchdown share in 2020 and a 36 percent yardage share and 50 percent touchdown share in 2021. All signs point to Dotson being Washington’s No. 2 pass catcher behind Terry McLaurin. He should be useful in leagues with multiple flex spots.
Josh Palmer (LAC)
Rostership: 21 percent
Palmer represents the rare wide receiver insurance. Probably he won’t have much opportunity as long as Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are upright and healthy. Last year, according to Sharp Football Analysis’ Rich Hribar, Palmer commanded a 17 percent target share with Williams on the field and a 20.3 percent share with Williams off the field.
When Allen last season missed Week 14 against the Giants, Palmer reeled in five of seven targets for 66 yards and a touchdown, while leading LA in targets per route run and dominating weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), a measurement of a player’s share of air yards and targets. Palmer would be a locked-in WR2 option in 12-team formats should Williams or Allen miss time (or, maybe, if Palmer forces the Chargers to get him on the field more often).
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG)
Rostership: 10 percent
Robinson has drawn rave reviews from anyone and everyone who saw him in Giants training camp, including NBC Sports’ Peter King, who called Robinson “the star” of New York’s camp.
Giants beat writers suspect Robinson could function as the team’s No. 2 back this season, which wouldn’t be a shocking development considering he had 142 rushing attempts for 690 rushing yards and four touchdowns in his first three college seasons, before shifting to receiver in 2021, putting up a 102-1,334-6 receiving line and accounting for a remarkable 45 percent of Kentucky’s receiving yards.
A suspect receivers room could open up immediate opportunity for receptions and rushes for Robinson. Encouragingly, the rookie played a vast majority of the Giants first-team preseason snaps. He could quickly become a high-floor PPR play if he’s deployed in a variety of ways in a New York offense that will be chasing points throughout 2022.
More receivers to roster: K.J. Osborn (11 percent), Alec Pierce (8 percent), KJ Hamler (5 percent), Parris Campbell (6 percent), Kendrick Bourne (5 percent), Kyle Phillips (1 percent). RB/WR Lynn Bowden (0 percent) signing with the Patriots raised at least one of my eyebrows. He could be stashed in deeper formats.
Tight End
Gerald Everett (LAC)
Rostership: 23 percent
I wrote (a lot) about Everett in a late-August Rotoworld column if you’d like to check that out. Suffice it to say he represents a serious tight end upgrade for Justin Herbert. Jared Cook in 2021 ran the 11th most tight end pass routes despite missing a game. Nearly all of that route running should now belong to Everett.
Last season in Seattle’s nightmarish offense, Everett posted the 15th highest yards per route run among tight ends. Russell Wilson posted his second-highest adjusted yards per attempt (8.06) in 2021 when targeting Everett, who had the eighth-highest fantasy points over expected among tight ends. He’s good, and he could excel in a potential Week 1 shootout against the Raiders. Everett will probably be rostered in 80-90 percent of leagues by Week 3.
Robert Tonyan (GB)
Rostership: 23 percent
There’s still some question as to whether Tonyan, coming off an ACL injury, will be ready for Week 1. If Green Bay exercises caution and holds him out, you can leave him on the waiver wire.
Tonyan, who in 2020 led all tight ends in fantasy points over expected, is the lost man in the discourse around which Packers pass catchers will fill the gaping void left by Davante Adams. Tonyan’s down-bad route participation rate was slowly increasing around midseason in 2021 when he suffered the season-ending injury. His targets and targets per route run were also moving in the right direction. Like every tight end outside the elite tier, Tonyan will be touchdown-reliant if he’s going to be fantasy relevant this season.
Other tight ends to roster: Irv Smith (55 percent), Hayden Hurst (10 percent), Mo Alie-Cox (10 percent), Isaiah Likely (9 percent), Tyler Conklin (1 percent), Jonnu Smith (1 percent) … click here for more on why Jonnu might be interesting.
Kicker
Unless you landed one of the game’s elite kickers, there’s no reason not to stream the kicker spot until you land on a reliable fantasy option -- as many managers did in 2020 with Younghoe Koo and Nick Folk in 2021. Below are some Week 1 options that fit the almighty kicker process. That doesn’t mean they make for good Week 2 plays though.
Jake Elliott (PHI)
Rostership: 21 percent
Fantasy’s top-scoring kicker through the final half of the 2021 regular season, Elliott should benefit from plenty of neutral and positive game script thanks to a potentially supercharged Philadelphia offense taking on an exploitable Lions defense.
Elliott averaged a solid 2.4 field goal tries per game in the season’s final ten weeks. He managed multiple field goal attempts in eight of his final 10 games of the 2021 regular season as the team nursed leads or kept the game close against one of the NFL’s softest schedules. The Eagles once again have a marshmallow soft schedule. Elliott should be snatched by anyone who doesn’t have a top-end option on their roster.
Wil Lutz (NO)
Rostership: 8 percent
Lutz is back, and if there were any doubts about his recovery from hernia surgery, he vanquished them with his career-long 59-yarder against Green Bay in the preseason. It is once again Lutz Szn.
New Orleans is a 5.5-point favorite against Atlanta this week with an implied total of 24 points. Lutz is as good as any kicker you can get off the wire this week.
Other kickers to roster: Rodrigo Blankenship (22 percent), Dustin Hopkins (38 percent), Randy Bullock (3 percent).
Defense
For the week’s best streaming defenses, check out Gary Davenport’s Getting Defensive column.