In recent years, the popularity of auction leagues has grown exponentially and what’s better than a fantasy auction? A dynasty fantasy auction! As the genre grows, I notice more and more discussion about exactly how to plan for an auction league and it can be much more involved than your typical fantasy draft.
Much like average draft position data, many players hope to use an average auction value as a gauge to prepare for their startup dynasty auction, but it’s not always that easy. Player value in an auction league is not only determined by how that player performs on the field, along with other factors that typically affect dynasty value such as age, role on team and the like, but also auction-specific dynamics like budgets and time of nomination. When looking at a completed dynasty auction, it’s easy to point out the players that were steals, as well as those who are clearly overpaid. This is usually a result of a player being nominated early in the auction, or lasting until near the bidding completion.
I want to take a look at how some different strategies and aspects of a startup dynasty auction play out. The easiest way to do this was to put together a group and start the bidding!
Prior to the opening of training camps, I put together a group of 12 to compete in a dynasty startup mock auction. The participants included myself and:
Chad Scott of TheFakeFootball.com
Rich Hribar of TheFakeFootball.com
Matthew Freedman of RotoViz
Sigmund Bloom of FootballGuys
Pat Thorman of ProFootballFocus
Russell Clay of ProFootballFocus
Graham Barfield of Rotoworld and numberFire
Dan Meylor of Dynasty League Football
Nick Mensio of Rotoworld
Shawn Siegele of RotoViz
Matt Harmon of NFL.com and FootballGuys
It’s always crucial to know your league rules and settings and the options we used for the mock played a major role in how the bidding began. With only 20 roster spots and very flexible starting lineups, requiring just one starter at each position, along with multiple flex options, it seemed that everyone involved was employing the studs and duds auction plan.
Before I get to the full results of the auction, I wanted to share some of my specific strategies, along with an assessment of their effectiveness. We were allowed to nominate two players per day and I opted for a dual strategy in the early stages of the auction. First, I chose an under-the-radar player I thought might sneak through with little to no competition. On day one of the auction, that player was Redskins’ rookie running back Matt Jones and he ended up being the first player I successfully won in the auction for just $3 of a $200 cap. While I was happy with this victory, I quickly realized players like this were barely deserving of a roster spot in a league with 20 man rosters. I knew I would have to set my sights higher in the coming days.
The other part of my nomination plan was typical of what many do early in an auction; I nominated a player I thought would pull a large amount of money out of the total pool. This can often be effective when nominating a top player that you might not be targeting, but in this case, it somewhat backfired as early auctions resulted in cheap prices for some of the best players in the game. On that first day, I nominated receiver Dez Bryant, who eventually landed on another roster to the tune of $51, over 25% of our total cap.
Let’s take a look at the top players from each position, based on final auction cost in the dynasty mock:
Quarterback:
| Name | Auction Cost |
|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | $26 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $24 |
| Russell Wilson | $15 |
| Cam Newton | $15 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $10 |
| Eli Manning | $9 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $7 |
| Drew Brees | $6 |
| Sam Bradford | $6 |
| Matthew Stafford | $6 |
If you follow any members of this group, you’re probably not surprised to see some very inexpensive prices on quarterbacks. With the depth of the position, there’s little reason to pay up for the top options, whether in a draft or an auction. With that said, a price of around 12% of the total cap for Luck or Rodgers is a very fair price to pay.
Running Back:
| Name | Auction Cost |
|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | $31 |
| Le’Veon Bell | $30 |
| Todd Gurley | $30 |
| Jeremy Hill | $28 |
| TJ Yeldon | $28 |
| Eddie Lacy | $25 |
| Melvin Gordon | $25 |
| Tevin Coleman | $20 |
| Adrian Peterson | $20 |
| DeMarco Murray | $20 |
| Ameer Abdullah | $19 |
| CJ Anderson | $18 |
| Isaiah Crowell | $18 |
| Lamar Miller | $17 |
| Marshawn Lynch | $16 |
| Arian Foster | $15 |
| Duke Johnson | $15 |
| CJ Spiller | $14 |
| Giovani Bernard | $14 |
| Matt Forte | $13 |
| LeSean McCoy | $13 |
While the quarterback group carried little surprise, there are some things that really stand out with this running back list. First of all, Chiefs’ veteran Charles topping the list might not be what you expected, and as I mentioned earlier, that has a lot to do with the timing. Charles was the last of the top running backs nominated and that’s when desperation can set in. It’s important to acquire players in the middle of a “run.” Being the last to win a top tier player can result in an overpay.
The same can be said of players that might look like bargains, Lacy, Forte and McCoy, who were all nominated early in the process and came at a very reasonable cost.
Wide Receiver:
| Name | Auction Cost |
|---|---|
| Odell Beckham | $57 |
| Antonio Brown | $53 |
| Dez Bryant | $51 |
| Mike Evans | $50 |
| Calvin Johnson | $46 |
| Julio Jones | $46 |
| Demaryius Thomas | $45 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $44 |
| AJ Green | $42 |
| Randall Cobb | $40 |
| Allen Robinson | $36 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | $35 |
| Alshon Jeffery | $35 |
| Brandin Cooks | $32 |
| Jordy Nelson | $31 |
| TY Hilton | $30 |
| Amari Cooper | $28 |
| Jordan Matthews | $28 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $24 |
| Keenan Allen | $23 |
| Martavis Bryant | $21 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | $21 |
| Kevin White | $21 |
There are many ways to rank the deep top tier of wide receivers and the order of those in dynasty rankings, draft or auction results can vary wildly and the top ten here is fairly standard. After that, it gets a little wild when the hype sets in.
It’s a surprise to see players like Allen Robinson and Dorial Green-Beckham cost more than the more proven Alshon Jeffery and even top ranked rookie Amari Cooper. Again, this is often a result of timing of the nominations. Some of these final prices may seem like a surprise, but with proxy bidding, it takes two to tango. That means with a final price of $35 for Green-Beckham, at least one other owner was willing to match that bid.
Tight End:
| Name | Auction Cost |
|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | $40 |
| Jimmy Graham | $20 |
| Jordan Cameron | $12 |
| Tyler Eifert | $12 |
| Travis Kelce | $10 |
| Maxx Williams | $10 |
| Greg Olsen | $8 |
| Julius Thomas | $8 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | $7 |
| Martellus Bennett | $6 |
| Ladarius Green | $6 |
Much like the quarterback position, there’s the top two and then everyone else. While the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce has been steadily gaining value over the past year, he looks like a steal here, falling behind Tyler Eifert and Jordan Cameron.
When approaching a startup dynasty auction, there are many things to consider. Chief among them are creating a budget you can build a team around, tiering players to ensure that even if you don’t get your top targets, you’ll get the next best option and carefully and intentionally choosing your players to nominate.
