In a recent article here at Rotoworld, I outlined 10 IDP “sleepers” for 2018 – undervalued individual defensive players that savvy fantasy owners would be wise to target on draft day.
It’s a fine read if I do say so myself. You should check it out.
But there’s a flip side to that coin. A darker side. A frightening side.
Just as on the offensive side of the ball, every year in IDP leagues there are players who are overvalued. Players whose potential for production just doesn’t meet the hype. Maybe they are being drafted based more on reputation than production by name-chasers. With some injury or situation concerns are being underestimated. With others still their IDP impact just doesn’t match what they are capable of from an NFL perspective.
Whatever the reason, drafting these players in 2018 is at best a highly risky proposition and at worst ill-advised.
Ezekiel Ansah – DE, Detroit Lions
The 2018 is a huge one for Detroit Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah. The 29-year-old, who will play under the franchise tag this year, is trying to show he’s worthy of a massive contract extension in 2019. He’s also acclimating to new defensive scheme under head coach Matt Patricia.
After missing OTAs and minicamp with an undisclosed injury, Ansah’s off the PUP list and back on the practice field. While speaking to Kyle Meinke of MLIve, Ansah was both noncommittal about his future and welcoming of Patricia’s “hybrid” defense.
“I’m just excited I get to play in Detroit for this year, and the future will just take care of itself,” he said. “Right now I’m just focused on this year. I just want to come out here and work hard every day. I try to see how I can help this team win. I took a lot of reps by watching, studying, being in the playbook. Then again, that’s different than being on the field, so I’m just happy to be back. We’ll see how many reps I can take this week and moving forward.”
At first glance, it appears that Ansah had a good year in 2017. He piled up 12 sacks and finished the season as a top-10 fantasy producer in many scoring systems. But look closer and you’ll see that Ansah had nine of those sacks in just three games and no sacks in 10 contests.
That’s an awful lot of “feast or famine” for a guy being drafted as a DL1 – especially when you throw in Ansah’s durability concerns and the new defensive scheme in Motown.
JJ Watt – DE, Houston Texans
It pains me to write this. It really does. You won’t find a bigger fan of Justin James Watt than this fantasy writer.
And to be clear, if Watt is able to return to form and posts a season similar to 2015 (the last time he won Defensive Player of the Year) he could once again be a dominant IDP option. Maybe the dominant IDP option. And per Peter King of NBC Sports, winning the DPOY award a record fourth time just so happens to be on Watt’s “to do” list.
“That’s the goal,” Watt said. “It’s not the only goal, but it’s a goal. I don’t expect anybody else to be convinced. I don’t expect anybody outside to have any reason to believe that. The last two years were two very bad years. There were some dark moments in there. But I’ve also come out the other side of it better because of some of the experiences that I had. So I’m just taking it one day at a time.”
It’s a laudable goal. And when he’s at 100 percent Watt is one of the greatest defensive players to ever play the game. But what are the odds that Watt’s going to be at 100 percent in 2018 after losing the last two seasons to multiple back surgeries and a knee injury so severe that his meniscus essentially exploded?
It would be a different story if Watt were coming off draft boards at a discount in 2018. But he’s not – he’s a top three picks at his position. That’s an awfully high price to pay for a player carrying more fantasy risk than any player in the NFL.
Demario Davis – LB, New Orleans Saints
To say that Demario Davis resurrected his career last year with the New York Jets is an understatement. After one season in Cleveland that vacillated between miserable and disastrous Davis had the best season of his six-year career – and then some. Davis piled up career highs in total tackles (135) and solos (97) on his way to a top-five finish in many IDP scoring systems.
That big year got Davis an equally big free agent deal with the Saints. In New Orleans, Davis has been lining up on the weak side primarily after playing in the middle in New York. He told Garland Gillen of Fox-8 News in New Orleans that he’s willing to do whatever it takes to help his new team.
“When I first came to the league I played Will. Linebacker is linebacker; see ball, get ball. I came here to win, so whatever coaches need from me that’s what I’m going to do my best at,” said Davis. “It is the NFL. It is a next man up league. The more you can do, the longer you sustain. There is versatility at every level especially on defense. That is what you want to be. You want to be more, do more, and wear more hats. In our system, especially, you need to be able to wear multiple hats.”
However, Davis has also been working with the second-team early in camp—which is what we in the IDP game a red flag. Even if Davis does win a starting job and plays in subpackages, last year was the first time in Davis’ career he’s tallied even 80 solos. Never mind what happened the last time he left the Big Apple.
It wasn’t pretty.
Christian Kirksey and Joe Schobert – LB, Cleveland Browns
Last year was quite an IDP season for Cleveland Browns linebackers Christian Kirksey and Joe Schobert. Schobert came from absolutely nowhere to tie for the NFL lead with 144 tackles en route to making the Pro Bowl. Kirksey tied for second in the league with 138. Both finished among the top-10 fantasy linebackers for the season.
Both are also highly-sought after in many IDP drafts this summer after that 2017 explosion – and that sets the stage for trouble.
The arrival of free agent-signee Mychal Kendricks clouds the waters substantially where Cleveland’s linebacker alignment is concerned. Kendricks has been nicked up somewhat in camp, but when he has been on the field he’s lined up at WILL – Kirksey’s spot. However, head coach Hue Jackson allowed to Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon-Journal that Kendricks could also see time at Schobert’s MIKE spot.
“Joe did a great job, obviously played every snap, and he had to,” Jackson said. “But could Joe Schobert be better if he doesn’t have to play every snap? Can he take a series off and breathe for a second because we have some talented guys? I don’t know how that’s going to shake out. But we have some guys that can play, and that’s a good thing. I think that’s a good problem to have.”
Maybe by the time we get later into August this picture will clear up and we’ll know which linebacker stands to suffer most from Kendricks’ arrival. Or it may be that Kendricks will move around just enough to cap both Schobert and Kendricks’ upside.
That uncertainty makes both Browns a tough pill to swallow at their current ADP.
Landon Collins – S, New York Giants
By just about any measurement, New York Giants safety Landon Collins is a stud. In all three of his seasons in the NFL, Collins has topped 100 total tackles. Two years ago, Collins piled up and eye-popping 100 solo stops. He wasn’t just the No. 1 safety in 2016. In most scoring systems, Collins was the top-scoring IDP overall.
Collins missed the last game of the 2017 season and most of OTAs thanks to a fractured forearm, but per Michael Elsen of the Giants website, Collins said his arm is fully healed and he’s a full-go for the upcoming campaign.
“The arm is 100 percent,” Collins said. “I would like to say 110 percent, but the reality is it’s 100 percent. I’m not limited at all. I’m going full go 100 percent and we are going from there. They are going to let me go full go. I guess it’s to my discretion and if I feel anything I can pull myself out. But like in the offseason, I have been putting a lot of pressure on it. I have been pushing things, so I can see where I’m at.”
It may seem strange that I’m advising fading the player I have ranked as the No. 1 defensive back. But to me it isn’t that odd – the simple reality is that I won’t pay the draft-day price for Collins. Or any of the other elite defensive backs, including Reshad Jones of the Dolphins and Keanu Neal of the Falcons.
The defensive back position is just too deep talent-wise and too unpredictable to throw that kind of early draft capital at a DB. 2017 was something of an object lesson in that regard—Collins slid toward the bottom of the top 10 after that huge 2016 season, finishing behind the likes of Jordan Poyer (Bills) and Kevin Byard (Titans) – both of whom were available late on draft day.
Tyrann Mathieu – S, Houston Texans
Houston Texans safety Tyrann Mathieu has a reputation as one of the most dangerous defensive backs in the NFL – a player who can change the flow of a game in the blink of an eye.
After five seasons in Arizona that included a Pro Bowl nod in 2015, Mathieu was released by the Cardinals in the offseason in a cap-saving move. He eventually joined the Houston Texans, and as Aaron Wilson wrote for the Houston Chronicle Mathieu has wasted no time emerging as a leader on the back end for the Texans.
“I just want to bring some energy, man,” Mathieu said. “I want to make as many plays as possible. I just want to be a leader back there. Obviously, stepping into a new role, I have some teammates. All those guys have been doing a great job of really supporting me and embracing me. I just want to be the ultimate leader for those guys and just show those guys that I’m going to show up every day.”
Mathieu’s 2015 season was indeed impressive—80 solo tackles, five interceptions, a pick-six and top-five fantasy production. But that’s been more exception than rule. In 2016, Mathieu missed six games and his numbers fell off a cliff. Mathieu rebounded somewhat with Arizona a year ago, amassing 70 solos and picking off two passes. But even that wasn’t enough to get Mathieu inside the top-25 fantasy defensive backs.
In more drafts than not that I’ve participated in this fall, Mathieu’s being drafted inside that top-25 – if not the top-20. He’s a big-play dependent fantasy option who is either being drafted at his ceiling or even above it because of the myth of “the Honey Badger.”
