Spotting players who have over-performed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
We’ll start with players who have run cold through three weeks, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 4.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Prescott drafters have been done in by haywire game script and, most recently, a feisty Arizona defense. There’s been some bad luck too, which makes you feel better about everything, I know.
Prescott’s touchdown rate of 2.9 percent is well below his career mark of 5 percent. Dallas’ red zone offense, as the morning sports shows are wont to point out, has been horrific through three weeks, with Prescott throwing 12 passes inside the ten yards line — the third most among quarterbacks — and managing a mere two touchdowns on said throws.
The Cowboys have been aggressive inside the 20. That’s good news for Prescott drafters tilting out of their skulls after his dud against the Cardinals on Sunday. Dak leads the NFL with 24 red zone attempts. Those passes have resulted in just three touchdowns. A persistent pass-heavy approach in the red zone — and, importantly, in the green zone — should eventually pay off for Dak.
Another dash of ice-cold comfort: Prescott’s peripherals are solid. He’s fourth in adjusted EPA per drop back and ninth in composite completion rate over expected and EPA per play. Don’t freak out and drop old Dak.
Russell Wilson (DEN)
Some free advice for young folks looking to get into the fantasy football industry: When you can hype a quarterback whose team just took one of the most brutal butt kickings in the history of organized football, you have to do it.
Whatever the Broncos’ problems are — and they are myriad and systemic and unsolvable this season — they do not include Russ. He’s bounced all the way back from his down-bad 2022 season, ranking fourth in completion rate over expected and eighth in drop backs success rate through Week 3. Russ is sixth in fantasy points per drop back. On Sunday he was awfully close to having a monster fantasy day against Miami.
Like Prescott, Wilson has been on the wrong side of variance in the high-value parts of the field. He has two touchdowns on 11 green zone attempts, and four TDs on 20 red zone throws. Broncos pass catchers dropped at least one, maybe two scores — depending on how generous one is feeling — in Week 3 against the Dolphins.
Wilson in Week 4 is a good bet to shred a Bears defense that desperately does not want to be around anymore. Keep starting him — unless the increasingly red-faced Sean Payton throws a tantrum and benches Russ for no reason.
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Running Back
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
There is no amount of copium that a Gainwell drafter can huff that will change the fact that D’Andre Swift is the Eagles’ No. 1 back. Believe me, I have tested the limits of copium consumption over the past couple weeks. Nothing works.
That Gainwell saw 15 touches Monday night against Tampa is more than we could have ever asked for with Swift taking over the RB1 role in Week 2, with Gainwell injured. In a Philadelphia offense that has been 4 percent under its expected pass rate over the past two games, Swift saw 16 carries to 14 for Gainwell. Swift had a slight edge in pass routes over Gainwell against the Bucs; both backs saw two targets.
Also, for some reason, Gainwell has faced stacked boxes on 46.4 percent of his rushes — the second highest rate in the league. That sure doesn’t seem sustainable. Gainwell, who I maintain is no Derrick Henry, being in the game doesn’t necessarily mean the Eagles are going to run the ball.
As long as opponents beg the Eagles to establish the run by deploying two high safeties and light boxes, Philly will gladly oblige. This could create the kind of rush volume that could buoy Swift and Gainwell -- to various extents, of course. Perhaps the best copium for Gainwell drafters is the certainty that their guy will be the team’s top back — behind an offensive line graded by Pro Football Focus as the league’s best run blocking unit — if Swift gets dinged up.
The Eagles should be able to run to their hearts’ content in Week 4 against Washington.
Alexander Mattison (MIN)
Mattison made a somewhat triumphant return to fantasy relevance in Week 3 against the Chargers, rushing for 93 yards on 20 carries and catching five of seven targets for 32 yards. Praise be. Things of that nature.
There’s no way around it: Mattison is a deeply inefficient player who could be overtaken by Cam Akers, of all people, in the next couple weeks. I only wanted to point out that Mattison -- or Akers, maybe -- could have a valuable role inside the ten. Mattison is fourth among running backs with six rushes in the green zone through Week 3. That he has -2 yards and zero touchdowns on those attempts is another (tragic) story entirely.
This Minnesota offense should continue creating high-value opportunities for whoever functions as the lead back largely because the team’s defense is abysmal.
Isiah Pacheco (KC)
Rostering the lead back in the most pass-happy offense in NFL history is going to be a frustrating little ride. Such is the case with Pacheco, who has 30 touches over the past two weeks and just a single touchdown in the machine-like Kansas City offense.
Patrick Mahomes continues passing more than anyone inside the ten. That’s baked into the calculus, and why Jerick McKinnon keeps Getting Away With It. Pacheco, for his part, has seven green zone rushes in three games, the third most in the league.
Pacheco ranks tenth in Pro Football Focus’ elusiveness rating. Only five running backs have forced more missed tackles this season. He should maintain the led back gig in an explosive Chiefs offense and, hopefully, the touchdowns will come.
Tony Pollard (DAL)
Pollard has been excellent for fantasy purposes while being firmly on the ugly side of touchdown variance in the season’s early going. Pollard leads the NFL by a gaping margin with 24 rushes inside the 20 yards line and has just two TDs to show for it. He also leads all backs with 15 inside-the-ten carries.
What I’m saying is that Pollard hasn’t even begun to explore his touchdown-based upside in the struggling Cowboys offense.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley (JAC)
It looked, in the wake of Week 1, like folks who had taken Calvin Ridley in the third round of their drafts had secured the steal of the summer. It was, in those heady times, very much Joever for anyone who missed out on Ridley.
Many are calling that presumptuous after Ridley managed a meager five receptions over the next two games. You know what comes next: Me droning on about underlying usage and whatnot.
Ridley over three games leads Jacksonville’s sputtering offense with a 21.6 percent target share — not as hefty as once thought — and 37.5 percent of the team’s air yards, a top-20 rate among wideouts. Ridley leads the Jaguars in red zone targets. If he had not dropped a 30-yard score early in the Jaguars’ loss to the Texans, Ridley would have likely escaped the Regression Files altogether.
I have at least some confidence that Doug Pederson will fix what’s ailing this discombobulated Jacksonville passing attack. Ridley should remain in lineups. Regression (the good kind) is on its way, taking its sweet time.
Tee Higgins (CIN)
The (good) regression hit for Higgins in Week 2 after a Week 1 in which the Bengals WR2 was down unfathomably. Well, he’s back in this space following a rough Week 3 outing against the Rams. He caught two of eight targets for 21 scoreless yards with a note-hateful 27 percent air yards share and two egregious drops.
The utilization has been perfectly cromulent for Higgins through the season’s first few weeks. He’s running all the routes and seeing his normal chunk or targets and air yards. It’s just been more volatile than usual. Joe Burrow’s gimpiness hasn’t helped matters. Burrow, it should be noted, has the NFL’s lowest air yards conversion rate through Week 3. Last year, he had the fifth best air yards conversion rate. In 2021, he led all signal callers in air yards conversion. Things should normalize as Burrow (hopefully) heals up.
The Bengals lead the NFL in neutral pass rate. The volume will be there for Higgins, who, on the season, leads the Bengals by a wide margin in air yards. Perhaps his up-and-down September can be explained by a not-insignificant jump in average depth of target from 2022.
Those who drafted Higgins can count on that even if they sweat blood during his Monday night meltdown against LA.
Josh Downs (IND)
The rookie is fast becoming the NFL’s preeminent PPR scam artist. I say that with love in my heart. PPR scams are what made this country great.
After leading the Colts with 11 targets in Week 3, Downs now sports a shiny 19 percent target share, trailing only Michael Pittman at 28.4 percent. Gardner Minshew’s lack of rushing — which takes away potential targets from pass catcher, as you may have surmised — has been excellent for Downs and Pittman over the past couple weeks. Anthony Richardson’s return from a brain injury would be unequivocally bad for Downs’ prospects.
We’re going to get precisely zero chunk plays from Downs as the short-area slot guy for Indy. The hope is that he gets more involved in the team’s red zone offense; he has just one red zone target through three weeks.
A little note on Downs’ Week 4 matchup against the Rams: LA leads the NFL in slot receiver target rate (43 percent) this year. Downs, as the zoomers say, could eat.
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG)
While we’re on micro-sized slot guys, I must mention Robinson, who made his debut in Week 3 against the 49ers and promptly earned five targets on eight pass routes at a miniature 3.8 average depth of target.
As Robinson is eased back into the New York offense following last year’s ACL injury, he could seize a valuable role. Daniel Jones is as primed as ever to check down to pass catchers at or around the line of scrimmage — exactly where Robinson lives. For now, it seems Parris Campbell will occupy the slot for the G-people. Campbell and/or Robinson are in a nice spot this week against a Seahawks defense giving up the sixth highest rate of targets to slot receivers (35.7 percent).
Zay Flowers (BAL)
Only 15 wideouts have more targets (25) than Flower and only nine have more receptions (21). Over the past two games, with Mark Andrews back in the Ravens lineup, leads Baltimore with 23.4 percent of the team’s targets. The rookie’s 21 percent target per route rate isn’t bad either.
Flowers’ targets have been of the not-so-long variety (6.3 aDOT), making him a far more valuable option in PPR formats than standard and half PPR. He’s well under his expected fantasy points on the season. There’s plenty of reason to be bullish on Flowers — who also has four rushing attempts through three games — as a primary beneficiary of a Ravens offense that has gone from a -4.9 percent pass rate over expected in 2022 to a -1.7 percent PROE in 2023.
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo (LV)
It’s possible — likely, even — Garoppolo can keep outperforming his baseline because Davante Adams is just that good. If you’re starting Jimmy G in a superflex league or a deep one-QB format, know that he’s running red hot in the green zone, with three touchdown tosses on nine attempts. Thirty-three percent of his red zone passes have gone for touchdowns. The Regression Reaper awaits.
If the Raiders keep falling behind and forcing Garoppolo and the Vegas offense into an obvious pass-first script ripe for pressuring the statuesque quarterback, things could get real bad real fast for Jimmy. He’s 31st out of 33 qualifying QBs in completion rate under pressure this season; only a handful of quarterbacks have a lower yards per attempt when facing pressure. It’s no secret that Garoppolo requires neutral and positive game script to succeed. If he doesn’t get that in the Vegas offense, the bottom will (eventually) fall out.
Jordan Love (GB)
I keep writing up Packers players in the (bad) regression portion of this piece, yet they keep performing. Curious. Curious indeed.
Love is fantasy’s fourth highest scoring quarterback through the first three weeks of the season. He also happens to rank second in QB fantasy points over expectation, trailing only Tua. Love’s touchdown rate entering Week 3 was 11.2 percent. Now it’s 7.5 percent. That’s going to keep normalizing — aka dropping — in the coming weeks.
Love has been miserably inaccurate this season. His completion rate over expected ranks 32nd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks, somehow below that of Zach Wilson. Love has the league’s fourth lowest air yards conversion rate. The metrics tell a story of a QB who has played poorly throughout the season’s first month, and who has been bailed out by his head coach’s play calling acumen. If you have a league mate pining for Love after his hot start, make the trade happen today.
Running Back
De’Von Achane (MIA)
I am aware that Achane is not available in your league. In your league, he was drafted before Christian McCaffrey. In your league, Achane was the first overall pick. I know.
If, for some reason, you are in the 60 percent of fantasy leagues in which Achane is on the wire, I need you to understand just how silly the rookie’s Week 3 performance was. In his 19-carry, 208-yard rushing day, Achane averaged a coma-inducing 6.1 yards after contact per attempt, as four of his 19 rushes for more than ten yards. Maybe this will help fantasy managers understand the ridiculous nature of Achane’s Week 3 outing against Denver: He had almost zero fantasy points coming into the week and is now the fifth highest scoring back in fantasy.
Raheem Mostert is Miami’s lead back, and deservedly so. The dusty old vet has made the most of his opportunity as the team’s RB1. The Dolphins headed into Week 3 leading the NFL in EPA per rush; expect Mostert and Achane to continue posting uber efficient numbers.
Those who roster Achane should be fully aware that the rookie is going to have to get there on limited touches unless Miami obliterates opponents every week the way they did against Sean Payton’s team.
Achane probably won’t be the team’s main pass-catching back either. Mostert in Week 3 led the backfield in routes despite resting during the fourth quarter; he drew seven targets to Achane’s four (on 11 routes).
None of this is to say Achane should remain on your bench. He shouldn’t. I only want to keep your fevered expectations in check. It’s what I live for.
Jerome Ford (CLE)
The newly-ordained RB1 in Cleveland, Ford painted over an otherwise horrific Week 3 performance against the Titans with two touchdowns on 12 touches. His 1.8 yards per carry didn’t inspire much confidence — even if the Tennessee run defense is elite — after Ford was terribly inefficient in Week 2 outside of a 69-yard run in the second half.
Ford had a mind-boggling 70 percent stuff rate against the Titans. His 56 percent route rate wasn’t great either. It hasn’t been all bad for Ford, who ranks third in broken tackle rate and 12th in evasion rate.
Unless Ford picks it up in the next week or two, expect Kareem Hunt and/or Pierre Strong to infringe on his playing time and wreck an RB1 role that is his to lose.
Wide Receiver
Romeo Doubs (GB)
Green Bay’s skill position players will continue populating this portion of the Regression Files until I’m proven right. This is a little something we like to call The Process.
Three of Doubs’ 11 receptions this season have gone for touchdowns. He’s certainly made the most of his green zone looks, scoring all three of his touchdowns on a mere four inside-the-10 targets. I’ve seen enough. Doubs is running too hot. Probably you’re starting him in Week 4 but be aware he is very much touchdown dependent until the Packers are a little more pass heavy.
Marvin Mims (DEN)
There’s no good place for Mims in the Regression Files. We can’t possibly maintain his brain-breaking efficiency (7.5 yards per route run, things of that nature) but his role in the Denver offense has to grow. That is, unless Sean Payton is secretly tanking for Caleb Williams in a game of seven dimensional chess.
It’s no surprise to see Mims with the second highest wideout fantasy points over expected this season. All he does is make big plays. On the season, Mims — averaging 24.4 air yards per target — has run a route on 23 percent of the Broncos’ drop backs. In Week 3 against Miami, the rookie had a 33.3 percent route rate. Probably he doesn’t need a full complement of routes to be a fantasy starter. Anything in the 60-70 percent route range and Mims will be a threat for WR1 status if he continues getting deep shots from Russell Wilson.
One potential roadblock for Mims: Denver is using three-wideout sets at a 47 percent clip, the ninth lowest rate in the league. He’ll have to leapfrog Jerry Jeudy to secure the kind of playing time he needs to be a somewhat reliable fantasy option.
Adam Thielen (CAR)
Thielen was helped out bigly in Week 3 with massive pass volume. Andy Dalton threw 58 passes, 14 of which went to his old slot guy. It worked out well for those desperate enough to start Thielen, but it probably can’t last.
Targeted on 27 percent of his pass routes in Week 3 against the Seahawks, Thielen was second in wideout fantasy points over expected in Week 3. It’s possible Dalton will continue to target Thielen relentless in the short areas of the field. It’s also possible Bryce Young (ankle) returns to the lineup in Week 4 and ruins everything for Thielen and the rest of the Carolina offense.
Tight End
Donald Parham (LAC)
I will come to your home and have a sit down about why you should not play Parham after his two touchdown performance against the Vikings. This is my commitment to you, dear NBC Sports media consumer.
The Chargers are using a three-way tight end committee through three weeks, doing their best to put fantasy managers in nearby asylums. It’s working. None of the LA tight ends are reliable for fantasy purposes. Running a route on 31 percent of the Chargers’ drop backs, Parham has turned three of four green zone targets into touchdowns. That’s nice. It also can’t continue. You can do better at tight end in Week 4. I believe in your potential.
Kyle Pitts (ATL)
I will continue to request police protection for fantasy analysts who cite Pitts’ route participation rate on Monday mornings. We are in mortal danger.
Suffice it to say Pitts is seeing all the air yards and running all the routes. No team targets the tight end position at a higher rate than Atlanta (37 percent). It should eventually, one day, mean something. Until then, enjoy Arby’s.
Hunter Henry (NE)
Managers who thought they had landed on a reliable streaming option in Henry clenched their fists with all the fury of the Arthur meme as New England’s TE3, Pharaoh Brown, glided into the end zone for a long score in Week 3 against the Jets. That, you thought, was supposed to be Henry.
The usage remains pretty good for Henry. He’s running a route on 68 percent of the team’s drop backs and has a 14.7 percent target share through Week 3. The Patriots target the tight end position at the league’s sixth highest rate (25 percent). The problem lies in the run-first nature of New England’s offense; only seven teams have a lower pass rate over expected this season. But Henry is fifth in tight end pass routes and should be a regular red zone target for Mac Jones. Maybe the Cowboys this week can push the Pats into a more fantasy-friendly game script. Maybe.
