Beat offers lofty target projection for Pierce

Pierce is facing a 4-6 month recovery period after undergoing ankle surgery in late April. His Week 1 status is very much up in the air. Just before announcing his ankle injury, Pierce signed a four-year, $116 million contract with the Colts, who expect Pierce to be the team’s top wideout after Michael Pittman left for the Steelers. It could be a slow start to the regular season for Pierce, strictly a downfield pass catcher. Eventually he should be Daniel Jones’ No. 1 target in the balanced Colts offense.

On April 20th, Colts general manager Chris Ballard said Pierce was looking at a three-month recovery after undergoing surgery on his ankle. The Colts’ exact training camp start and end dates have not yet been announced, but last year, it ran from July 23rd to August 14th. Returning partway through camp would technically put him a little bit behind schedule. Pierce signed a four-year, $114 million contract, so we know the team certainly hopes to increase his involvement this season. However, while Pierce rehabs post-op, WR Josh Downs and TE Tyler Warren continue to get into football shape while honing their craft. Pierce will still have time to get ready for the season if he returns in early August, but he’ll be cutting it closer than he ideally would.

Ballard said that Pierce, who signed a four-year, $114 million contract this offseason, is expected to be back sometime during training camp. According to Ballard, Pierce “kept dealing with some pain in his ankle” and opted for surgery after consulting multiple doctors. It doesn’t sound like this is an issue to be overly concerned with at this time, but the clock is officially ticking for Pierce to be ready to go by camp after the Colts paid him WR1 money this offseason and traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers. We’ll likely get another update on his recovery as training camp draws closer.

The Colts’ intent to increase Pierce’s involvement was made apparent by the four-year, $116 million contract he signed last month. Downs produced career lows in targets (84), receptions (58) and yards (566) last year, struggling to compete with TE Tyler Warren as a slot weapon. This is the second positive report for Downs this week, though which is encouraging. Downs currently finds himself in the fantasy WR4 discussion, but could improve his standing by becoming the Colts’ go-to pass catcher in the short-to-intermediate target depth this summer. Pierce has a wide range of potential outcomes as he attempts to transition from a downfield role to being the team’s X-receiver. He can be valued similarly to Downs and may possess a higher upside.

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk obviously comes to mind, and multiple team sources tell Keim that the Commanders are “well aware” of Aiyuk’s “desire” to be reunited with his former college quarterback, Jayden Daniels, but Keim believes the Commanders are unlikely to trade for him. If Aiyuk were to be released, Keim thinks only a one-year, prove-it deal would be offered. Keim follows the Aiyuk section by saying the Commanders could also draft a receiver. Perhaps the team is negotiating through the media. Perhaps not. Hopefully, things will become clearer in the coming weeks and months. Keim adds that the front office would have pursued Colts WR Alec Pierce had he not re-signed with Indianapolis and, per Keim, Pierce “absolutely” would have signed with Washington in that scenario. The Commanders also pursued former Packers WR Romeo Doubs but lost out to the Patriots.

This comes from a source Holder spoke with, who suggested “8-10" targets a game could be in the range of outcomes for Pierce next season. Given the massive $116 million payday he received to stay with the Colts, and the team’s decision to trade away Michael Pittman, it’s safe to assume there will be more targets available for Pierce in 2026. That said, he’ll still have Tyler Warren and Josh Downs to compete with for targets, and the Colts will likely look to replace Pittman with a player not currently on the roster. Dating back to his college days at Cincinnati, Pierce has never been known as a target hog, but there will be added incentive to get the ball in his hands after his record-setting deal for a free agent receiver. Pierce profiles as a fringe WR2/WR3 until we see more targets come his way. In his breakout 2025 season he finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in 46 percent of his games.

The window was open for seconds before the deal was announced. This means that Michael Pittman Jr.'s spot on the Colts roster is tenuous as Pierce’s cap figure should be enormous. Pierce said on the Pat McAfee Show that “he knew where his heart was.” Pierce figures to see his role increase in 2026 based on this contract, but with Daniel Jones’ health in some question for Week 1, his fantasy stock is somewhere closer to the WR2/WR3 area as things sit today. Dianna Russini of The Athletic reported that Pierce turned down more money elsewhere to stay in Indianapolis.

Field-stretcher Pierce would be a strong fit in the Patriots’ offense, but they might believe he’s not enough of an upgrade on their current Kayshon Boutte/Mack Hollins tandem to justify more than $30 million per season. The 49ers, meanwhile, could be tired of waiting for former first-rounder Ricky Pearsall to stay healthy. Pierce is predictably generating wide interest after the Colts surprisingly let him reach the open market, but he is still most likely to end up with a cap-flushed, receiver-desperate team like the Titans.

It’s a sensible list of teams with major cap space and a need at wide receiver. Albert Breer also linked the 49ers to Pierce on Friday. The Colts are still negotiating with Pierce and did just trade Zaire Franklin to free up some cap space, but we’d be surprised if they were the high bidder in free agency based on how this has unfolded.

He ultimately predicts (not reports) the Patriots will sign Pierce to a four-year, $104 million contract. It’s certainly an outcome that would be unsurprising at this point, though Dianna Russini has mentioned that the price tag could continue to climb on Pierce over the weekend. We were expecting the Patriots to be one of the main teams in the race for Pierce the second they released Stefon Diggs and this article does nothing to dissuade us from this notion.