Harbour Town Golf Links returns to host another edition of the RBC Heritage.
This course is a unique one when comparing to the week-to-week stop on the PGA TOUR. It features classical design notes that put an emphasis on precision, not power.
Looking for ways we can target course fit, there are a couple of angles that stand out this week.
First, this course is right on the coast so we can look for overlapping success on other coastal courses. Playing by the water usually means you need to adapt to changing wind conditions.
After that, we will focus on courses where golfers tend to club down off the tee, less-than-driver courses.
These lists shouldn’t be our primary research tool but the goal is to pluck out a few value gems to help build out our DFS rosters or help cement our love for one of the favorites at the top of the board.
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Coastal Course Performance
Playing by the coast is comfortable for some, the Sea Island Mafia comes to mind, and for others they don’t spend much time playing coastal tracks.
Let’s see who has gained the most strokes per round on coastal courses, over the last two years:
Webb Simpson
Daniel Berger
Patrick Cantlay
Dustin Johnson
Collin Morikawa
Tyrrell Hatton
Tommy Fleetwood
Paul Casey
Will Zalatoris
Harris English
Brendon Todd
Abraham Ancer
Matthew NeSmith
J.T. Poston
Maverick McNealy
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Maverick McNealy
Brian Gay
Hudson Swafford
Matthew NeSmith
Michael Thompson
Luke Donald
Daniel Berger
Adam Long
Martin Trainer
Graeme McDowell
Michael Kim
Nick Taylor
Chesson Hadley
J.T. Poston
Peter Malnati
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Daniel Berger, Matthew NeSmith, J.T. Poston, and Maverick McNealy.
McNealy grew up in Palo Alto so he likely spent his entire childhood playing coastal tracks out in California. This is somewhat of a home game for NeSmith (he even proposed to his wife at Harbour Town). Poston is a part of the Sea Island Mafia. Sometimes it’s just a matter of coastal comfort when it comes to playing these tricky tracks.
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Success on Less-than-Driver Courses
Let’s revisit some past quotes from this event to highlight the tee-box strategy at Harbour Town:
“Last week, you saw the guys hitting driver on so many of the holes and just hitting it over corners or over bunkers. Here you can’t do that. I mean, I mentioned old school earlier. The fairways really do pinch in as we get closer to the green, so guys have to lay back to the wider part of the fairway.” -Webb Simpson, 2020
“A lot of courses I just pull driver out and rip it. That’s definitely not this place.” -Luke List, 2019
“I think today I hit seven drivers. It’s really narrow, tree-lined. I grew up playing golf courses like this.” -Dustin Johnson, 2019
“The guys that can scramble well and have good course management, it’s not a course you need to be a long hitter. Certain holes it helps, obviously, but the long hitters, it’s taking driver out of their hands a lot. So I feel like the playing field’s leveled out. -Luke Donald, 2017
Here are the top performers on similar less-than-driver courses, over the last two years:
Webb Simpson
Patrick Cantlay
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Collin Morikawa
Kevin Na
Billy Horschel
Paul Casey
Daniel Berger
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Tyrrell Hatton
Lucas Glover
Corey Conners
Harris English
Abraham Ancer
Matt Kuchar
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Kevin Na
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Camilo Villegas
Jim Herman
Billy Horschel
Hunter Mahan
Lucas Glover
Mackenzie Hughes
Matt Wallace
Brandon Hagy
Webb Simpson
Danny Willett
Ryan Armour
Collin Morikawa
Chris Kirk
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Webb Simpson, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Collin Morikawa, Kevin Na, Billy Horschel, and Lucas Glover.
We saw Aphibarnrat pop on this list last week for the Corales but his game is still out of sorts.
Scheffler performed well in the Texas winds last week and he grades out as the top performer in the entire field, when playing in windy conditions. Will there be any fatigue from playing so many matches last week?
FanDuel Focus
Webb Simpson ($11,800): If you are looking for safety at the top of the board, Simpson is probably one of the main targets to focus on. He’s the defending champ and already had six top 20s on his Heritage resume before last year. Getting him on a less-than-driver course in the Southeast is the prime setup for him.
Lucas Glover ($8,900): The Clemson product finds himself on the less-than-driver list above and it makes sense that his game would shine when more emphasis is put on approach play. He’s one of the best iron players on TOUR when dialed in. He’s picking up some steam in the lead-in as well, carding 12 more birdies than the field average in his last 12 rounds played.
Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis.
