With the end of the season drawing close, we are set up for thrilling races for both the title between Liverpool and Manchester City as well as the two additional spots in next season’s Champions League between Spurs, Arsenal, Manchester United, and Chelsea. Beyond the immediate gratification of the title/qualification, there are long-term ramifications of who succeeds and who fails over the next month and a half. Here’s a quick look at how each club is positioned to capitalize on success or regressed in the face of failure. For each club we’ll evaluate them at the executive level, the managerial level, squad level, and the financial level as part of looking at potential futures based on their 2018-19 results:
Manchester City
Clearly, City are the best positioned club in the Premier League both this season, still competing for the three trophies they haven’t already won, and into the future. The analysis here isn’t very difficult really.
Executive Level: The former Barcelona leadership team has been working together successfully for years and have both the best talent and best manager at their disposal. Some of the key pieces of City’s first title run - Vincent Kompany, David Silva, and Sergio Agüero - are certainly on the downside of their exceptional careers but there always appears to be a plan and money to back that plan.
Managerial Level: Whether you think Pep is the best manager in the world or not, he’s certainly in the conversation and we don’t hear anything from him about wanting to be anywhere else.
Squad Level: There are few places where City aren’t two-deep in exceptional talent. Yes, they could do to upgrade the outside back spots and bring in Fernandinho‘s long-term replacement but with Gabriel Jesus waiting to replace Sergio Agüero and Aymeric Laporte, Nicolás Otamendi, and John Stones a solid, if unspectacular trio of center backs and an embarrassment of young attacking riches in the midfield there can’t be too many complaints. The only minor concern is their inability to keep rising academy players like Jaydon Sancho and Brahim Diaz long enough for them to break in to the first team.
Financial Level: The only real concern here is whether their money and the aggressive way they’ve deployed it during their dramatic rise will cost them in terms of FIFA or UEFA Financial Fair Plan sanctions.
Overall: City are safely in the driver’s seat in the Premier League going forward. All levels of the organization are aligned and full of quality. They have money to do what they need to do and their current squad has not only top quality but top quality depth so the risk of a drop-off after the departure of the likes of Aguero, Kompany, Fernandinho, and David Silva is minor.
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Liverpool
The arrival of Jurgen Klopp, combined with struggles at Chelsea and Manchester United, have seen Liverpool ascend to second in the title race as well as at least near-term having the second best outlook in the Premier League going forward. How stable is that spot is really the question.
Executive Level: Certainly, Liverpool’s executive team will get credit for getting the most out of a difficult situation with the departure of Philippe Coutinho. The massive sale price and their strong track record with recent transfers in - Allison, Van Dijk, Robertson, Salah, and, to a lesser extent, Shaqiri - look great. They have been less successful with their midfield acquisitions with big money spent spent on Fabinho and Naby Keita with little to show for it. We certainly don’t have as much clarity on the decision-makers as we do at City so what we don’t know about Liverpool’s recent transfer success is how dependent it is on Jurgen Klopp and his team vs an entrenched group at Fenway Sports Group that will outlast the current manager.
Managerial Level: Jurgen Klopp has been a modern-day Arsene Wenger (remember the one who lit up the Premier League in his first 10 years to the extent we were incredibly disappointed with the back half of his Arsenal tenure because there were only top four finishes and the occasional FA Cup trophy?). He has created a culture that players want to be part of and not worried when someone like Coutinho leaves. How much is him and how much the recruitment team at the club isn’t clear but he has certainly done exceptionally well with the players available to him regardless of how they arrived.
Squad Level: The squad isn’t perfect but it is very good. Assuming Joe Gomez returns as Virgil Van Dijk’s partner at the center of the defense then there is a strong quartet of CBs with Gomez able to deputize at right back. The outside backs are young and ascending stars with depth at left back at least a mild concern. Perhaps the biggest question mark in the squad is the state of trio in midfield where there are a number of solid options but no stars. The attack is exceptional and deep. Perhaps as important is that the squad is exactly where you’d want it to be on the aging curve. There aren’t many, if any, players who have imminent declines looming due to age or injury.
Financial Level: The answer here isn’t entirely clear. Fenway Sports Group doesn’t have money like Manchester City or Chelsea have money and Liverpool doesn’t organically spin money like Manchester United. They have been spending big on the back of strong sales like the Coutinho deal as well as consistently getting Champions League-related revenue. As Arsenal have discovered, this is good while it lasts but it isn’t a sustainable advantage the way City’s billions are.
Overall: Things are going very well at Liverpool. The only two problems are that 1) they are going better at Manchester City and 2) there is a strong possibility that the current success is very Klopp-dependent and we don’t know how long he will stay. The first problem is bigger than the second given that we’ve heard no rumblings about Klopp discontent but a few frustrating years of finishing behind City and that could change for a manager who had a similar issue in Germany with Bayern and in the Champions League.
