Week 10 is almost entirely in the books meaning that we’re over a quarter of the way through the 2014-15 Premier League season. In other words, all the “it’s too early to make too much of XYZ result” way of thinking is pretty well over for the season. If you’re good after ten matches then you’re probably pretty good, if you’re bad after ten matches then you’re probably going to stay that way. The pretenders who flashed at the start of the season – we’re looking at you Aston Villa and Leicester City – have crashed back to reality. Likewise, the players who enjoyed a great run of form have been separated from those who are just good. Leonardo Ulloa has been found out while Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle have been discovered.
This is not good news for Manchester United, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton who all would have been hoping for more from this season and seem highly unlikely to get it unless the January transfer market brings a complete change of fortune. This is good news for Southampton, West Ham, and Swansea who are all over-performing pre-season predictions and seem to be playing within themselves. None will be champions but supporters should be feeling a lot better about their prospects after all three were at least mentioned in the same breath with the word “relegation” in the pre-season.
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The Title Race - where we discuss how the aspirants for the title and the four Champions League spots are doing against those two goals.
Chelsea – Certainly not dominant but they got the job done. That Fabregas guy got yet another assist as well, could he make it to 30 assists if he stays healthy? That may sound insane but he’s on pace for more than that. Just a few numbers to point out how sick it is that he already has nine this season. Last season’s leader for the entire season was Steven Gerrard with exactly 13. Cesc could get that number next weekend. There are exactly two players who have hit the 20 mark in Premier League play since 2000-2001, Thierry Henry with 23 in 2002-2003 and some guy named Cesc Fabregas with 20 in 2007-2008. Unless he’s injured then it’s hard to imagine him not beating Henry’s count by a fair distance.
Manchester City – It wasn’t incredibly impressive but they got a win against their local rivals and kept pace with Chelsea. This is important because they did it without David Silva who has been their best midfielder this season by a fair margin. They also got a solid contribution, although still not nearly up to last season’s standard, from Yaya Toure. Toward the end of Marco Etcheverry’s career at DC United, I joked with a few friends that he’d turned into a very effective foosball player and Yaya Toure looked similar today. He didn’t run much, mostly within the middle third of the field, but he took the ball from the defensive third, turned and made nice passes into the attacking third. He needs to do more to keep City from looking for a replacement soon but at least he made some contribution to an important win.
The Race For Europe – We can now feel good about breaking out City and Chelsea for the title and monitoring what will surely be a thrilling race for the remaining two Champions League places here.
Southampton – They just keep on rolling, don’t they? You wouldn’t want to count on a 40+ yard strike from your holding midfielder off of a scuffed clearance from the opposing goalkeeper to win many matches but things have been going that well for the Saints. They could have had more but they won on a day when the ball generally wasn’t bouncing their way on conventional attacks. If it was Chelsea or City winning this way then the narrative would be that this is the sort of win that good teams get even when playing at less than their best. Why not feel the same way about the second place team in the table after a quarter of the season?
Liverpool – So Liverpool have played QPR, Hull City, and Newcastle in consecutive matches – this should have been the incredibly soft part of the schedule. Instead, Liverpool have managed to intentionally score one goal over the three matches (remember, QPR scored two own goals in Liverpool’s 3-2 win) and only managed four points from what should have been an easy nine with seven being the absolute minimum acceptable total from the three. The Reds had better hope that Daniel Sturridge comes back and that he is the element that is currently missing. You can see how the combination of Sterling and Sturridge causes enough havoc that Jordan Henderson, Philippe Coutinho, and Adam Lallana get the extra space they seem to need to replicate their performances from last season. The real quandary is that Steven Gerrard is done as a starter/talisman on a good team but due to his “legend” status at the club, Brendan Rodgers will have a very hard time benching him. It doesn’t help that there isn’t a player who is obviously better to slot into Gerrard’s spot. Given the amount of money spent in the off-season it’s hard to imagine that there’s not even a viable candidate.
Arsenal – Yes, it was only Burnley but finally we saw an Arsenal team that looked interested in winning for a full match. It took 70 minutes for them to actually find the back of the net for the first time but they were pressing from the start. Arsenal have crept into the top four despite not being exceptional yet this season. Hard to know if that’s good or bad in the grander scheme of things. If I had to guess I’d say that it is a good sign for Arsenal and not as good a sign for the Premier League.
Manchester United – I read somewhere on Twitter today that Manchester United fielded the most expensive starting line-up ever in the Premier League today (I don’t know what standard they were using, transfer fee, wages, or some combination). Regardless, you’d think you could get at least a single goal out of that much money spent. There are all sorts of excuses that could be throw out for United’s day and season-so-far but at the end of the day they don’t actually look any better than they did last season even though they spent a ton of money to get here. Angel Di Maria put in some really nice set pieces that went for naught but that’s hardly enough for the money or to beat City. On the down side, they lost both of their starting central defenders - Marcos Rojo with a shoulder injury and Chris Smalling to the absence of two brain cells to rub together when making footballing decisions (those were two yellow cards showed hideously poor judgment).
Tottenham Hotspur – They were playing a team that hadn’t scored in a long time in Premier League play and they managed to be the inferior team despite getting the win. You could argue either way on the Christian Benteke red card but what you can’t argue is that Aston Villa were the better team when both sides had eleven players on the pitch and Spurs needed a lucky deflection from Harry Kane’s free kick to get the winner. Hard to take these guys too seriously as top four contenders but their point total is such that we can’t really erase them from the category yet.
Everton – Swansea aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, they’re ahead of Everton in the table, but Everton should be winning this match at home and up a man for the final 20 minutes if they hope to go anywhere. Romelu Lukaku looked somewhat Balotelli-like missing a late opportunity to win it. They’re hanging around within a point of Spurs, Liverpool and Manchester United just outside of the European places but it feels like they need a “statement win” before we give them much of a chance to make a move forward up the table.
The Relegation Zone - where we examine events at the other end of the table as established clubs flounder and newly promoted clubs reveal who they are going to be this season.
Crystal Palace – They play Sunderland later today in a match that they’ll feel like they need to win at home against a fellow struggler.
West Brom – Up to eleventh after an away clean sheet win and headed off of this list as a result. I had thought that the Baggies’ rebuilt defense might be strong in the pre-season with Joleon Lescott a contender for “this season’s Curtis Davies”. I have to admit I lost faith when they started so poorly but they’ve recovered nicely as they’ve gotten healthier. They look like a solid mid-table team which is a step up from what they were last season.
Sunderland – The good news is that they haven’t lost yet this weekend, the bad news is that the reason is that their match is scheduled for Monday night.
QPR – Still in the drop zone but they beat Aston Villa after I hit “publish” on last week’s column which is good. On the other hand, there was almost no chance that they were going to keep that momentum going with their trip to Stamford Bridge. The good news is that they didn’t capitulate the way they have on some of their other recent travels but a loss is still a loss.
Burnley – Not sure what to say that hasn’t already been said, they’re done.
Newcastle – We said last week that we’d take the Magpies off the list if they beat Liverpool and so we will. Consider them out of danger for the time being. Beating Liverpool right now isn’t exactly something to crow about but winning three in a row in the Premier League against any opposition is so credit to Alan Pardew and his players for a strong late-October/early-November. Next weekend’s trip to the Hawthorns will be a nice test for both recently hot clubs that won’t be on this list for the Week 11 edition.
Leicester City – They’re coming back to the relegation pack very quickly and currently sit only two points out of danger. The worry is that the club that looked so bright attacking early in the season seems to have forgotten how to score. They were never great at defense even when they were going well so you can see how this would be a pretty big problem.
Newcomer of the Year - where we track the progress of players new to the Premier League this season
- Cesc Fabregas – On a record-setting assists pace as documented above. No further discussion needed for him to maintain his spot.
- Alexis Sanchez – Costa and Di Maria haven’t been contributing a ton over the past couple weeks for various reasons while Sanchez has four goals. That moves you up the ladder.
- Angel Di Maria – He played reasonably well but the results weren’t there again. It’s too bad because someone should really be getting on the other end of his crosses, they’re quite good and they players who should be on the other end are paid a lot of money to get there. He’ll be suing for non-support if this keeps up.
- Diego Costa – He played which is an improvement but didn’t do all that much in doing so. That will be the downside of Costa on weeks when he doesn’t score, he isn’t a dynamic attacker who produces a great deal other than goals. Of course I’m speaking statistically, his hold-up play is also good but that tends not to show up in even the most elaborate fantasy formats.
- Dusan Tadic/Graziano Pelle – A quiet week for the duo but the Saints kept a rolling and they were THISclose to connecting again.
- Diafra Sakho – It was his counterpart Enner Valencia who scored and assisted on Stuart Downing’s goal but we’ll get to him shortly.
- Gylfi Sigurdsson – He played which is good news after coming off last weekend but couldn’t inspire his team to victory. Still, a road point at Everton when playing down a man for 20 minutes.
- Enner Valencia – He continues to defy predictions about his ability to contribute in the Premier League by making an impact in almost every match he plays. Hard to think of him as 8th on this list but it’s also hard to see who should be pushed down to make way. It’s really quite a list.
- Fraser Forster – We’re giving him a spot less because of a spectacular save or series of saves but rather in recognition of the work of the Southampton defensive unit as a group.
- Thibaut Courtois – There haven’t been many clean sheets but Courtois hasn’t been beaten in the league yet and that has to count for something.
Just Missing Out: Falcao, Andrew Robertson, Leonardo Ulloa, Danny Welbeck, Daley Blind, Ander Herrera, Eric Dier, Kieran Trippier, Joseph Schlupp, Patrick van Aanholt.
Dropping Off: Falcao, Andrew Robertson
The Phantom Point All-Stars – Yes, we’re going to keep tweaking this one until we get it right. We’re going to re-instate the Joel Ward All-Stars (defending phantom statistics – blocks, interceptions and tackles), re-classify the Mido All-Stars (all attacking phantom points – SOTs, corners won, successful crosses) and add an all-around category for players who throw in a little of everything for a massive phantom point weekend.
Joel Ward All-Stars
- Nathaniel Clyne – A blocked shot, two interceptions and EIGHT (that’s right, 8) tackles won in the 1-0 win. Strong stuff.
- Ryan Mason – A combative performance for the young midfielder saw him intercept three passes, win five tackles and get fouled four times in Spurs’ come-from-behind victory over Villa.
- Michael Duff – One of the things we have learned with these lists is that there are some very solid performances that come in losing efforts, even lopsided losses. Duff contributed three blocked shots and four interceptions to Burnley’s attempt to hold off the Arsenal onslaught.
Mido All-Stars
- Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain – It’s been a while since he had anything tangible to show for his efforts but a shot on target, four successful crosses and seven corners won indicate that he’s a handful as he’s trying to break through with goals and assists.
- Santi Cazorla – The inclusion of two Arsenal midfielder who neither scored nor got an assist in a 3-0 win give you an idea of the siege that Burnley faced. Cazorla kicked in two shots on target, three successful crosses and two corners won as he returned to his productive fantasy ways.
All-Around All-Stars
- Gael Clichy – Two blocked shots, five interceptions and three tackles won on top of a clean sheet and the assist on the only goal of the match. That’s about as “all-around” as it gets.
- Cesc Fabregas – Yes, he had an assist too but he went well beyond that with a shot on target, three successful crosses, four corners won, a blocked shot, a pass intercepted and two tackles won. This just in…he’s good.
- Bojan – An interesting match that saw the former Barcelona man record two shots on target, a successful cross, a corner won, along with four tackles won while being fouled four times.
- Matty James – Leicester City consistently place people on these lists although James is a new name to the group, he deserves his inclusion with seven successful crosses, a corner won along with two interceptions and three tackles won in a losing effort.
The Fake Narrative of the Week - It is impossible to go a week without encountering a narrative somewhere in the football media that appears to be totally made up for the sake of gaining attention. They usually fall into the categories of made up transfer rumors, hanging on too long to a mental image of who a player was and not who he currently is, or preying on a long-held stereotype based on club, nationality, or position. When I come across them, I’ll let you know and then let you know why I think they’re silly.
Southampton can’t win a Champions League spot – This seems to be a pretty popular opinion these days. Perhaps pundits are jaded by teams in previous seasons who they’ve seen rocket up the charts early only to fade as the season pushes on. I can think of seasons when Martin O’Neill’s Aston Villa looked like a strong contender for a long while only to sink back into mid-table mediocrity by the end. Likewise with some of David Moyes’ Everton clubs (remember when we used to think he was a really good manager?). I’m not convinced that this is another illusion though. Not because Southampton have any particular ingredient that those clubs did not (although they do have some serious cash in reserve from their summer dealings and some good players coming back from injury). No, my confidence in their legitimacy is more to do with the inadequacies of the clubs that might supplant them. In Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Spurs there isn’t a single one that appears to be significantly better than the Saints. Ronald Koeman was bold enough to say so late last week and it’s hard not to agree with him. Any of those clubs could improve significantly in January but are you confident that two of them will make big enough fixes to overcome what could be a significant deficit? We’ll see for sure as the Saints get set to play some of their rivals for Champions League spots in the upcoming weeks but writing them off because they aren’t a significant “brand name” is proof that you’re not watching the matches.
Sponsor I’d Like To See - As you can see from the lack of sponsorship for this column or this page, there’s room for some additional corporate involvement here at the Rotoworld.com Premier League page. In a blatant attempt to solicit any sponsors who may be reading, I’m going to start suggesting some sponsors who might want to call the nice people at NBC Sports to find out what it would take to become part of the team.
Flip Sports – You may not have heard of this one but it’s an interesting concept in fantasy Premier League gaming. Jeremy Spitzberg passed a link to the announcement of the launch along to me a couple of weeks ago and I finally found the time to check it out. Flip Sports takes the idea of “Daily Leagues” the next logical and allows players to focus on a specific match. There are multiple ways to play and I was fortunate enough to have the founder of the company, Stuart Tilly agree to play me in the one-on-one version of the game twice over the weekend. I chose the Arsenal vs. Burnley match for my first attempt. Each manager chooses six players (goalkeeper, two defenders, one midfielder, one forward and one flex that can be either a midfielder or a forward). There are no player prices so you can pick any players from either of the teams with the caveat that you have to pick at least two from each side. You can make substitutions right up until kick-off and you even get one substitution during the match. You also have the option to exercise a “boost” during the match to double the output of a chosen player for 10 minutes.
The most enjoyable feature during game play was the simple in-app chat feature. Stuart and I talked trash back and forth as I broke out to a solid first half lead with me doing most of the talking. He got more vocal as the second half progressed and he came from behind to take a significant lead heading into the final minutes. Sometimes luck is on your side though and Kieran Gibbs to Alexis Sanchez (I had both in my team) in stoppage time turned the tables and won the match for me. I’ll tell you that it definitely feels good to win at a new game for the first time…against the guy who created it. We played again on Sunday during the Aston Villa/Spurs match and my luck went in entirely the opposite direction. Stuart was leading in the second half again when Adebayor (I had him) was subbed out. I was choosing between Harry Kane and Christian Benteke as my substitute and we’ll just say that I chose…poorly. One Benteke red card within a few minutes of me subbing him in and it was all over.
Thanks to Stuart for the guided tour of the game. In addition to the version I described there are larger public leagues available as well as the ability to create multi-player private leagues. Check it out.
Random Closing Thoughts - Well, this one’s pretty obvious and it will be how we close out the column each week at least until a better idea comes along.
- My Second Club – The weight of “second club” status was clearly too much for Leicester who continue to struggle mightily despite having been freed from that burden. On the other hand, Southampton, my mulligan choice has continued to do well with the focus this weekend on their defense (and great luck from Wanyama) which has been the stingiest in the league so far.
- This Week’s Good Points: Newcastle are the only club to get “good points” this weekend with the win over Liverpool. You could make a case for Swansea’s point at Everton but I’m not going to do so. That rockets Newcastle to second on the list, quite an amazing turnaround from the start of the season for the Magpies.
- The Good Points Table: Leicester City: 8; Newcastle 7; West Ham 6; Crystal Palace 4; Aston Villa 3; Stoke City 3; Sunderland 3; Swansea 3; West Brom 3; Burnley 2; Hull City 2; Manchester United 1.
- This Week’s Bad Points: Liverpool are on the wrong end of the ledger again with their three “bad points” taking them past Manchester United to the “top” of this undesirable table. It isn’t just the dropping of points but doing so to teams you should beat that makes the journey an uphill one. It puts just that much more pressure on when you play the other big clubs because you NEED the points.
- The Bad Points Table: Liverpool 11; Manchester United: 10; Spurs 8; Manchester City 6; Everton 5; Arsenal 4; Stoke City 3; Villa, Palace, Newcastle, Southampton, and Swansea all 2.
- Southampton’s Champions League Chances: We covered this above but are going to leave this placeholder here to remember to discuss it in late November/early December as the Saints get Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United within the course of nine days.
- West Ham’s Rise – A potential letdown averted to at least some extent. A true contender would have found a way to win this one to keep the momentum going but a point probably keeps the Hammers in reasonable contention for a Europa Cup place if the big boys (United, Spurs, Liverpool) continue to struggle in winnable matches.
- What did we find out? A note from the MLS playoffs before we get to the rest of it, Thierry Henry is still bringing it after all these years. The New York Red Bulls forward used a no-look, backheel for an assist to Bradley Wright-Philips that was just sublime. You’ll recall from earlier in the column that it was 2002-03 when Henry tallied 23 assists for Arsenal. It’s been TWELVE seasons since that accomplishment and he’s still playing at a pretty high level. Just amazing. Other than that, we found out that Manchester United’s defense is not only injury-prone but also incredibly stupid. Both of Chris Smalling’s yellow cards were idiotic. Southampton can win the 8-0 matches and the 1-0 matches. Maybe Brendan Rodgers isn’t the best thing since sliced bread as a manager but rather he had a really amazing player in Luis Suarez surrounded by a lot of good supporting cast members. Being a Stoke City supporter must be maddening – the only thing they are consistently is inconsistent.
- Balotelli Watch – The League Cup goal must have taken at least a little of the pressure off but the loss to Newcastle combined with Balotelli’s ineffectiveness likely have us back at close to the boiling point. No one in the greater Liverpool area is safe.
- What’s Next? The weekend’s highlight matched up has lost some of the luster it must have had when the season started. Chelsea travel to Anfield for what I’m sure schedulers and pundits all thought would be a match-up near the top of the table. Instead, the Blues will likely be heavy favorites even if Daniel Sturridge is back in action. Elsewhere, Arsenal’s trip to Swansea will be an interesting test of Arsenal’s better play this past weekend. Finally, Newcastle travel to the Hawthorns in a match-up of teams that have shaken off poor starts and are now moving solidly up the table. All that and more are available across the NBC Sports family of networks here in the US (check your local listings if you’re reading outside the US).
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