The opening this weekend is all about myth and reality and the value of strong organizations. The popular myth is that Arsene Wenger built his reputation at Arsenal by finding bargains and punching above Arsenal’s weight en route to league and FA Cup glory around the time of The Invincibles. As it turns out, that just isn’t the case and anyone surprised by Arsenal’s current plight just hasn’t been paying much attention to the reality of the situation as opposed to the popular mythology that has been built up about the Arsenal manager. The obvious counterpoint to this narrative this weekend is the continued ability for Southampton to actually do what Wenger has so often been credited with – recruit and refine young stars at the academy level and make strong value-based buys on the transfer market.
On the tenth anniversary of Arsenal’s Invincibles, there have been a lot of stories about them from all angles. One that I haven’t seen given much play is the cost of that group. The mythology that has grown up around Wenger the Innovator would have you believe that he purchased the players who became the Invincibles for pocket change and transformed them into undefeated Premier League champions through his sheer brilliance and managerial acumen. Players like Henry, Pires, Ljungberg, and Vieira might not have been household names in England when they arrived at Arsenal but they were certainly not unknowns on the world stage. The Invincibles squad was every bit the expensive team in terms of transfers and wages that you would expect of Premier League champions. The three things working against that being the popular narrative at the time were:
- Arsenal’s financial power that fueled the purchases of their stars was created from their day-to-day operations and not petro-dollars and them being one of the two richest clubs in England along with Manchester United was just the way things were then.
- Manchester United actually had more to spend than Arsenal at the time so it never felt like Arsenal just spending their way to a title the way Chelsea and Manchester City have been accused of doing in more recent times.
- Foreign players just weren’t respected in England at the time the way they are today and the notion of assembling a strong team of foreign, mostly French, players didn’t feel like a legitimate threat the way bringing in a strong contingent of Germans or Spaniards or Brazilians would today.
From style of play to where he chose to buy, Wenger certainly did things differently from the traditional English manager and to great effect in those early days. Somehow though, bringing two very good ideas – style of play and buying foreign – into the popular mix in England got confused with being a developer of unknown talent and a having a penchant for innovating tactics. What Wenger has proven since the days of Arsenal’s duopoly with United have past is that his achievements were not indicative of any particular ability to identify unknown talent or continue to adapt tactically. They were decisive moves forward for the Premier League but they have stagnated from there.
Given where Arsenal stand in the pecking order of the Premier League financially, it isn’t clear what the basis is for the continued disappointment that the media (and supporters) show in Wenger. Yes, the result against Hull was disappointing and could seemingly have been avoided if Wenger had done what everyone cried for him to do over the summer and buy another center back and an actual holding midfielder worthy of starting in the Champions League. Still though, even if the best case scenario had played out and Sami Khedira and Mats Hummels had arrived on deadline day Arsenal still don’t seem like they would be up to the challenge of beating Chelsea or City out for the title. Whether it is with Wenger or someone else at the helm the Gunners seem destined to be fighting for fourth on a regular basis because your place in the table is highly correlated with spending and Arsenal will never be able to outspend Chelsea, City or United on a regular basis and the notion that Wenger will outsmart everyone to the best talent is a myth created years ago when knowing about and being willing to buy outrageous foreign talent like Thierry Henry when he turned out not to be a good fit in Italy was a competitive advantage. Now, anyone with YouTube and the URL for WhoScored.com can track the progress of high profile players at big foreign clubs who might fit better elsewhere.
If you want to contrast the Wenger mythology with something then the thing to contrast it with is the reality that regardless of what is going on with the senior club, Southampton just continue to crank out fantastic talent. Even better news is that the senior club is finally catching up to the youth academy in terms of generating success on the field.
Where Wenger has produced only Jack Wilshere from academy to first team and probably deserves most of the credit for Kieran Gibbs as well there is a seemingly endless supply of very good to great players coming out of the Southampton academy. Gareth Bale, Theo Walcott, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain all emerged from the south coast while the Saints senior team was toiling away outside the top flight. Luke Shaw, Adam Lallana and Calum Chambers followed suit this past summer and James Ward-Prowse seems poised to join them in the future.
The Saints seem to have developed a propensity to do what Wenger is typically credited with (but actually hasn’t done much of recently), identifying young talent and buying it at a bargain price. Before the big summer transformation of 2014, Southampton found major bargains in Nathaniel Clyne, Morgan Schneiderlin, and Jay Rodriguez who were all relatively young when purchased. Victor Wanyama and Dejan Lovern were more highly touted and a bit more expensive but have both turned out to be strong acquisitions as well. Finally, the haul from this past summer – Graziano Pelle, Dusan Tadic, Ryan Bertrand, Toby Alderweireld, Fraser Forster, and Sado Mane – has represented exactly that quality that the mythology would have you believe about Arsene Wenger. None were priced outrageously and all are making a strong contribution.
With Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs and Everton all flailing at time so far this season, it isn’t outrageous to think that Southampton has a strong shot at a Europa Cup spot and at least an outside shot at a Champions League place living the reality of buying smart and developing youth while Arsenal clings to the myth of doing the same while performing exactly where the finances say they should.
Check in with Rotoworld.com for news, analysis and fantasy predictions all season
The Title Race - where we discuss how the aspirants for the title and the four Champions League spots are doing against those two goals.
Chelsea – The only things that we add to the freight train that is Chelsea’s inevitable coronation are two statements and a question:
- We now know they can win without Diego Costa
- We know that they are playing perhaps the prettiest attacking football seen in England since Wenger’s Invincibles. That Fabregas goal was yet another example of the passing quality that now exists at Stamford Bridge.
- Speaking of the Invincibles (for the third time already this column), the question now is whether Chelsea can stay undefeated? Mourinho and Cesc are laughing it off as silly and probably rightly so this early on but the talent and teamwork is certainly there to at least give it a serious run.
Manchester City – Aguero was just a monster. If he stays healthy then there’s at least the chance of a title race.
The Race For Europe – We can now feel good about breaking out City and Chelsea for the title and monitoring what will surely be a thrilling race for the remaining two Champions League places here.
Liverpool – Apparently Liverpool and QPR were getting an early start on the Christmas season. Liverpool continued to try to gift a point to the Rs and ‘arry’s boys just kept giving the win right back to them. It was a fantastic final few minutes to the match but it certainly didn’t make you any more confident about Liverpool’s chances of securing a Champions League spot.
Arsenal – You can complain all you like about how Mohamed Diame got into position for his goal (he clearly pulled Mathieu Flamini back with a “swim move” that any NFL defensive lineman would be proud of) but the fact remains that even we foolish people outside of football management knew that Arsenal needed a bigger, tougher, and more athletic holding midfielder over the summer (and last summer, and just about every summer in recent memory) and Wenger didn’t buy one. It was almost as if the referee grew up supporting Arsenal and this was his way of letting Wenger know that he was disappointed with the lack of Sami Khedira/William Carvalho/Morgan Schneiderlin/etc. arriving at the Emirates in August. The good news, if there could be any from this result, was that Alexis Sanchez looked like a player ready to dominate Premier League matches and Aaron Ramsey came back for a substitute appearance and didn’t reinjure himself doing so. Of course there was also another injury with Jack Wilshere going down again. Just a rotten Saturday for the Gunners overall and one that makes you seriously question their top four credentials.
Manchester United – We’re still waiting on United’s match this weekend but with Liverpool looking terrible (but fortunate) against the dregs of the league, Arsenal floundering at home against mid-table opposition and Spurs getting whipped by City the only conclusion you can reach is that United and their top four chances look much better this morning than you could possibly have suspected as recently as a few weeks ago. No reason to think they don’t have a strong shot at third.
Tottenham Hotspur – They played reasonably well going forward and created a first half that was extremely entertaining but ultimately showed that they just aren’t in the same neighborhood as City talent-wise. Maybe we have to be a little more patient with Mauricio Pochettino’s system but that and the January transfer window seem to be the only hopes Spurs have of making a legitimate fight for a Champions League spot.
Everton – We finally saw the Everton team that we were expecting at the beginning of the season. We’ll let them enjoy this one and see if they can make it a trend before we make too many proclamations about the sustainability of the improvement. They did get Ross Barkley and Seamus Coleman back from injury which will certainly help but if that was the underlying issue then there should be equal concern for how thin that would point to the squad being.
The Relegation Zone - where we examine events at the other end of the table as established clubs flounder and newly promoted clubs reveal who they are going to be this season.
Crystal Palace – They didn’t get blown out by Chelsea but they didn’t pick up any points either so not much to report here other than what we expected to happen (a loss) happened. Still in at least some level of relegation danger.
West Brom – We’ll see how they fare against Manchester United later today.
Sunderland – Hopefully Sunderland supporters enjoyed the two weeks they got to bask in the glow of that first win because I’m pretty sure that shine has worn off and then some after Southampton just couldn’t stop scoring against the Black Cats. Heck, it was so compelling that two Sunderland players felt compelled to score own goals and Virgini’s was a cracker of an own goal at that. It’s going to be hard to recover from this one.
QPR – As I said above, Liverpool did everything they could to gift the Rs what would have been a very good point. When you’re not even going to take the gifts it’s hard to see how you can stay up.
Burnley – We’ll call them the anti-Chelsea because it feels like their relegation is as assured as Chelsea’s coronation. They can’t score and their early season propensity for keeping the ball out of the net seems to be eroding faster than Wayne Rooney’s natural hair follicles.
Newcastle – A win! A win! And if that weren’t enough there was a Gabriel Obertan goal that settled things. Hard to say which of those two events was more surprising. They’re not out of the woods yet but their victims, Leicester City, have now been dragged into the relegation conversation which give the Magpies that much more hope.
Leicester City – After a fantastic start it’s hard to reach any conclusion other than that they appear to be much more Blackpool 2010-11 than Reading 2006-07.
Newcomer of the Year - where we track the progress of players new to the Premier League this season
- Angel Di Maria – He hasn’t played yet but we’re not moving him out of the top spot due to the vagaries of scheduling.
- Diego Costa – Out with a hamstring injury at exactly the right time as Chelsea got a relegation candidate and a Champions League minnow. His injuries are as well-timed as his runs in the box.
- Cesc Fabregas – Wow, wow, wow. That was a sweet team goal but he’s going to need a bunch more of them before we move him up over Costa or Di Maria.
- Alexis Sanchez – A goal and an assist to ensure that Arsenal at least managed one point, the Chilean played his best match of the season so far.
- Dusan Tadic/Graziano Pelle – We’re combining their entry and moving them up after Tadic orchestrated five goals (four assists and a goal) and Pelle scored another brace. They’ve been just exceptional buys. Tadic’s four assists puts him ahead of Adam Lallana‘s total for all of last season and we’re only eight matches in.
- Radamel Falcao – Like Costa and Di Maria we’re not moving him on the basis of not having played yet this week.
- Gylfi Sigurdsson – He was great early on in the match against Stoke and probably should have had an assist or two along with a goal but it just wasn’t his day. At least he can bask in the brace against Holland, the top spot in Euro qualifying and keeping his spot on this list while waiting for his next crack at goals and assists.
- Diafra Sakho/Enner Valencia – Big Sam’s teams are easy to forget because they typically play boring football but this duo has arrived and changed things up significantly and are at the core of fourth place, yes fourth place, West Ham. Happy 60th Mr. Allardyce, you’ve earned that big goofy smile today.
- Mohamed Diame – OK, he wouldn’t seem to fit on this list as he came over from West Ham and Wigan before that but can this really be the same player? Maybe he likes that funny yellowish-orange that Hull City wear but whatever the cause he’s playing like Yaya Toure from last season.
- Andrew Robertson – There are already rumors of a move up to a bigger club after eight weeks on the job at Hull City. Pretty strong endorsement of his play so far.
Just Missing Out: Leonardo Ulloa, Danny Welbeck, Daley Blind, Ander Herrera, Eric Dier, Kieran Trippier, Joseph Schlupp, Patrick van Aanholt, Fraser Forster, Thibaut Courtois.
Dropping Off: Leonardo Ulloa
The Phantom Point All-Stars – Yes, we’re going to keep tweaking this one until we get it right. We’re going to re-instate the Joel Ward All-Stars (defending phantom statistics – blocks, interceptions and tackles), re-classify the Mido All-Stars (all attacking phantom points – SOTs, corners won, successful crosses) and add an all-around category for players who throw in a little of everything for a massive phantom point weekend.
Joel Ward All-Stars
- Michael Dawson – A former rival coming back to haunt Arsenal as the former Spurs man blocked four shots, intercepted two passes and won two tackles on the way to a point at the Emirates. He managed a shot on target as an added bonus.
- Michael Duff – Burnley were under siege and the presence of Trippier and Duff on these lists is a tribute to the work they put in to keep the Hammers to only three goals. Two blocked shots, three interceptions and two tackles won plus a shot on target of his own boosted Duff’s fantasy results to a place his team can only dream about results-wise.
- Mauricio Isla – Not someone I’d usually associate with a hard-nosed fantasy performance driven by interceptions and tackles but there he was intercepting five and winning four tackles while winning three corners as well.
Mido All-Stars
- Santi Cazorla – The little Spaniard was all over the place with three shots on target, four corners won and a successful cross while being fouled five times. Only a spectacular save from Steve Harper before he went off injured kept Cazorla off the score sheet. Oh, and he managed to intercept two passes and win a tackle as well. Good stuff even if the result was terrible for his team.
- Mario Balotelli – He doesn’t really deserve to be on this list but he was in the area so much with so little result that it almost feels obligatory to comment on him here because at some point they’re going to start going in and he’s going to have a monster game…right?
All-Around All-Stars
- Kieran Trippier – A frequent visitor to these lists he managed a well-rounded two blocked shots, two interceptions, one tackle, six successful crosses (6!), and a corner won despite his team losing 3-1. Hard to imagine he won’t be playing for someone in the Premier League next season after his teammates are relegated.
- Tom Cleverley – Villa have had lots of trouble generating even a single shot on target in most matches but Cleverley got one this past weekend along with winning two corners, intercepting four passes, winning two tackles and two corners as well. Strong all-around performance in a losing effort.
- Ki Sung-Yueng – Not the first name you think of when you think “all-around fantasy stud” but he chipped in with three shots on target, two interceptions, and two tackles won against Stoke City.
- Ryan Mason – Spurs just keep throwing new people into the holding midfield areas with Sandro, Paulinho, Capoue, Bentaleb and now Mason getting their chances. Mason will have endeared himself to fantasy managers with a solid all-around performance in a losing effort with a blocked shot, three interceptions, two tackles won, and two shots on target. Fans of the real game will be slightly disappointed that he missed his chance early that could have tilted the match differently from the early minutes.
The Fake Narrative of the Week - It is impossible to go a week without encountering a narrative somewhere in the football media that appears to be totally made up for the sake of gaining attention. They usually fall into the categories of made up transfer rumors, hanging on too long to a mental image of who a player was and not who he currently is, or preying on a long-held stereotype based on club, nationality, or position. When I come across them, I’ll let you know and then let you know why I think they’re silly.
I think we covered this sufficiently in the opening.
Sponsor I’d Like To See - As you can see from the lack of sponsorship for this column or this page, there’s room for some additional corporate involvement here at the Rotoworld.com Premier League page. In a blatant attempt to solicit any sponsors who may be reading, I’m going to start suggesting some sponsors who might want to call the nice people at NBC Sports to find out what it would take to become part of the team.
LeagueSafe.com – Not that I in any way advocate gambling on the results of fantasy leagues in any way, shape or form that isn’t legal but if you were to be playing in a private fantasy league with dues that need to be collected and distributed and not everyone lives/works close by each other for easy transfer of real cold, hard cash, LeagueSafe.com is a great way to make sure everyone is light on excuses not to pay up on time. The cash is held and it is easy for the commissioner of your league to pay out the winnings at the end. Seems like there might be an audience for that sort of thing congregating on our site from time-to-time but what do I know?
Random Closing Thoughts - Well, this one’s pretty obvious and it will be how we close out the column each week at least until a better idea comes along.
- My Second Club – The only between me changing my vote from Leicester to Southampton on the spot on Saturday was that I didn’t see either of their matches myself (although it felt like I saw the entire Southampton match because the highlights took so long). The Foxes are on notice that they have one week to turn things around or I’m pulling a reversal and going with the Saints as my second club for the balance of the season.
- This Week’s Good Points: Hull City pulling a point on the road at Arsenal is a pretty solid outcome that represents their first “good point” of the season. Not much else in the results could be considered a huge shock.
- The Good Points Table: Leicester City: 8; Crystal Palace 4; Aston Villa 3; Stoke City 3; Sunderland 3; Swansea 3; West Brom 3; West Ham 3; Burnley 2; Newcastle 1; Hull City 1.
- This Week’s Bad Points: If Hull City’s point at the Emirates was good then Arsenal’s two dropped points were terrible moving the Gunners within a “bad point” of Spurs and Everton and two points of Liverpool.
- The Bad Points Table: Manchester United: 10; Liverpool 6; Spurs 5; Everton 5; Arsenal 4; Manchester City 3; Stoke City 3; Villa, Palace, Newcastle, Southampton, and Swansea all 2.
- Southampton’s Champions League Chances: It will be very easy to overreact to the Saints putting up 8 goals against Sunderland this weekend and declare their candidacy for fourth place legitimate. The question you have to ask yourself here is whether you think they can keep up their current pace of beating the clubs below them in the table regularly and adding Spurs, Everton and Arsenal to that list of “clubs below them”. Arsenal’s formula last season was to win the games they should win and that was good enough for fourth. With Liverpool, Spurs, and Arsenal having trouble with that easy formula so far this season there’s at least a chance for Southampton who have lost on the road at Anfield and White Hart Lane (no tragedy in either of those) and dropped two points at home against West Brom. As long as the West Brom result was an anomaly I wouldn’t be heavily against them.
- West Ham’s Rise – The Hammers have replaced Swansea as the other team crashing the heights of the table. It’s harder to believe in the sustainability of their position since their wins have come against mostly bad teams (Burnley, QPR, and Crystal Palace) and the one outlier against Liverpool. They can only play the matches that are scheduled but until they start beating the Evertons, Tottenhams, and Arsenals on a regular basis I think we can assume that this is a mid-table team that will turn out to be a pleasant surprise.
- How quickly the narrative shifts – The club occupying West Ham’s spot not too long ago was Swansea who powered to a fast start with a shocking win over an unsettled Manchester United and then two easy ones over Burnley and a short-handed West Brom. Since then it has been two points from five matches with the club only able to earn draws against Newcastle and Sunderland teams that seem likely to struggle with relegation. With no significant injuries contributing to the swoon, it’s looking like Swansea might end up as a 14th or 15th place team despite the triumphant return of Gylfi Sigurdsson.
- What did we find out? In a week when a lot of things we knew – Cesc instigates some very pretty football, Arsenal are vulnerable at the back, Spurs aren’t that great at the back, and Sergio Aguero is a stud when healthy – maybe the only thing that is dawning on us is that Mohamed Diame can be an attacking force when deployed further up the pitch. Add him to the long list of players wrongly miscast as the “next Vieira” likely because he looks the part in height, lanky-ness and skin color.
- Balotelli Watch – Like a tea kettle sitting on the flames, it feels like we’re headed toward a Balotelli explosion (the disruptive kind that makes writers happy because it’s an easy target) in the next two weeks unless he actually does something useful on the pitch.
- What’s Next? Next weekend kicks off with a very interesting test for Manchester City who travel to Upton Park to face a hot West Ham club. I expect City to win but they haven’t been a great road team and the Hammers are in good form so it will be a good watch. After the rest of the weekend’s matches, Sunday concludes with Manchester United hosting Chelsea. Have Louis Van Gaal had enough time to get his galacticos ready for a huge test? Will Diego Costa be fit for the occasion? Can’t wait to find out the answers next weekend (on NBC Sports Network and the NBC mothership)
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