Welcome to the first edition of Fantasy Talk Across the Pond. In the finest tradition of Bill Simmons and Malcolm Gladwell, the famous Scout from the FantasyFootballScout.co.uk and PremierLeague.com has agreed to trade messages with me examining the new Draft Fantasy game at PremierLeague.com and how the players he has covered for years in the salary cap game are likely to translate into a draft format. Enough with the niceties, let’s talk Premier League Draft Fantasy.
Thurman: Mark, James Milner was an outstanding contributor for Liverpool last season after he was surprisingly named their starting left back. Much of this was down to his success as the Reds’ prmary penalty taker. The hype for Milner grew even further when the news hit that he’d been reclassified as a defender for the upcoming season. What are your thoughts on Milner’s value now that Andrew Robertson has arrived? How about some of the other players who have been reclassified?
Sutherns: Thanks Neal. At the risk of extending the niceties a little longer, it’s a pleasure to lock horns and chat Fantasy Draft.
Yeah, I like Milner. I’ve looked at his numbers from last season and he would have ranked third in FPL defender standings had he been re-classified from a midfielder. He may struggle to convert seven spot-kicks this season but with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane running at defenders, I still see him getting those opportunities.
Is Andrew Robertson a threat? I think this is where we differ. I still see Milner as first choice and a prime early pick as a result. I think rotation will come but perhaps not initially, maybe at the UEFA Champions League group stages if they qualify.
Looking elsewhere, Jay Rodriguez could be worth a look back as a 6.0 forward, though that depends on West Bromwich Albion putting more emphasis on attack. Roberto Firmino is intriguing now that he’s a forward, if only because it extracts him from that challenging Liverpool midfield puzzle. I think he’s a solid pick later in the Draft – not least because we know he’s a favourite of Jurgen Klopp and should give us 30+ starts.
I know you like Victor Moses now he’s a defender. I see him improving his output but couldn’t figure why you’re done on Milner when, if anything, rotation could hurt the Chelsea man just as much. He won’t be scoring penalties, or earning them judging by his FA Cup final antics.
Thurman: Overall, my perspective on players in a draft format is to stay away from uncertainty. In the salary cap format, I’m all for diving in on Milner early in the season for all the reasons that you suggest. If I start looking at spending a draft pick commensurate with the hype Milner is getting after the designation switch to defender and the risk that the 23-year-old Robertson supplants the 31-year-old Milner, especially in Klopp’s high-energy system, it just feels like a risk. For managers who are playing the head-to-head version of the draft game, that could mean spending a high round draft pick on Milner and only effectively getting half a season out of him.
As far as Victor Moses goes and even Marcos Alonso for that matter, there has been lots of smoke from the Chelsea camp about buying competition for their wing back duo but precious little fire. Maybe Antonio Rudiger comes in as part of the back three and pushes Azpilicueta into Moses’ spot when Conte wants rotation. The problem with that theory is that Azpilicueta was so good where he was last season it’s hard to see that change being made. With Danilo going to Manchester City and Juventus seemingly unwilling to sell Alex Sandro, it seems like Chelsea’s wing backs could preserve their values in a way that Milner and Kyle Walker (who faces rotation with Danilo arriving) don’t. Honestly, if I’m drafting a wing back to be this season’s Marcos Alonso, it’s going to be Sead Kolasinac from Arsenal. If I’m prioritizing holdover defenders, I’m thinking Azpilicueta is the one guy at Chelsea who is going to play somewhere no matter what.
I LOVE the call on Jay Rodriguez as a later round bargain and it gets me wondering who else you’re hoping will fall to you in the later rounds. In no way let your response be influenced by the fact that we’ll be drafting against each other tomorrow. I promise not to read your response until after we’re done with the draft. After a couple of drafts over the weekend, my big revelation was picking up Markus Suttner late as his profile coming into the Premier League reminds me of Christian Fuchs. He is an older left back who crosses well, takes set pieces, and will likely be counted on to help trigger the Brighton attack from the wide areas. Not a slam dunk but definitely has some intriguing potential.
Sutherns: Well right now it might be Alberto Moreno that Milner owners have to worry about, not Robertson. I get the reservations on Milner and he wouldn’t be my first or perhaps even second draft pick, but if he’s still there after I’ve covered the Spurs and Manchester United defence, then I’m looking his way. I still see 30 starts for him and that’s enough for strong returns in a Liverpool defence that I think will improve and serving a strike force that look set to score even more goals – and perhaps earn more penalties.
I’ve reservations about the Chelsea defence and the Antonio Conte’s side in general. I think without Hazard’s influence in attack and with Alvaro Morata adjusting, they might just struggle to achieve early momentum and that might impact on their defensive returns. I think I can cope without Chelsea cover and that includes Alonso – who I think will lose 4-5 starts this season.
I like Rodriguez but I don’t share your confidence in West Brom. For me, with early injuries and a lack of new faces, I see them struggling, even with a favourable set of opening fixtures. Suttner’s different – I think you’ve highlighted a surprise differential there. He’s got quality in his delivery and appears to have cemented the left-back role for Brighton. Lewis Dunk was my go-to for the Seagull’s defence but I’m wary of his disciplinary record – 25 yellows and 4 reds over three seasons is a scary stat, particularly given he’ll be trying to cope with going up a level.
Of the promoted defenders, it’s Florian Lejeune that’s caught my eye. I wasn’t sure on Newcastle’s first choice back four but he’s impressed in pre-season and it seems very unlikely that Ciaran Clark and Jamaal Lascelles will renew their Championship partnership. Matt Ritchie is the other Magpie I’m coveting. He failed us the last time he came up to this level but I think he’s a more complete player now. With set-pieces and penalties, he’s going to be a prime late draft pick-up in midfield.
Thurman: Excellent call on Lejeune. As an American, my excitement has been on the right side of the Magpies defense with DeAndre Yedlin. If I’m honest with myself, that’s probably less about fantasy and more about continued hopes for the maturation of a great athlete who is still trying to figure out if he’s going to put it all together into a single package.
I was fascinated by our draft this week. As excited as I was for Jay Rodriguez as a potential late bargain, I wasn’t as excited as the manager who picked him with the 7th choice in the 3rd round. There’s apparently a point at which the hype of a sleeper goes too far and someone we’re excited for as a later round value starts getting over-drafted. The fact that JRod went before Ozil, Alonso, Azpilizueta, and Coutinho was absolutely shocking to me. I understand that forwards are scarce and that there’s a non-zero chance that Coutinho is sold to Barcelona but those are some excellent fantasy options that went after a promising, but still very much speculative, forward. What, if anything, jumped out at you about the draft?
Sutherns: Yeah, I think there was a degree of panic on Rodriguez. Andy had sixth pick on forwards I believe and took the risk on Alvaro Morata. With his less than impressive pre-season form, I think he had to prioritise a second striker - hence his move for the Baggies man. Like I say, I’m not a fan but I can see the logic in securing an assured starter with good early fixtures.
Overall the draft was an eye opener for an FPL player new to the game. The tension that builds when you start to realise that the pool is thinning out and that you’ve some obvious holes to fill is exhilarating. I think there were some decisions that left me puzzled and wondering if I’d missed a trick. A few moved earlier for defenders and even goalkeepers than I expected. My strategy was to fill the frontline with the first two picks and then try to get a midfield big-hitter with my third pick, if I had confidence I could still get an active third striker. I wanted Mohamed Salah, so I ended up with Manolo Gabbiadini up front. I’m not particularly enamoured with that and I’m now concerned that Kelechi Iheanacho is going to eat into Jamie Vardy‘s output too.
You must be glowing about that move and, if Coutinho and Mahrez remain in the Premier League, I think you set up to be the team to beat. You took some risks but, so far, they look like paying off. Do you think your draft experience helped out?
Thurman: I guess we’ll find out. The way this particular draft broke I ended up taking a lot more risk than I usually do. Part of that is due to how much work appears left to do before the deadline and part of it was that an 8-team league means there will be a lot of solid players available as free agents each week based on match-ups.
Still, I look at Milner, Moses, Giroud, Iheanacho, Coutinho, and Mahrez and I see nearly half my side who have to have their situations - e.g., playing time at their current club, a transfer elsewhere, or no transfer elsewhere - break just right for me. If it all breaks right I’m going to be a pretty happy manager. If not, I’m going to have to grind hard on the waiver wire to replace a good chunk of my squad.
One final question before we wrap up our first Across the Pond feature, let’s do a little pre-season award predicting. Who do you have as your highest scoring player at each position this season? Most disappointing? Most productive newcomer?
Sutherns: Well Iheanacho’s move is a good start and you already know my feelings on Milner. I think you’ll do just fine. Better than that, in fact.
As for predictions. Well I’m glad I’ve got Jesus. For me, he will be up there with Kevin De Bruyne for the leading points scorer overall so I’ll go those two for the top scorers in midfield and attack. I just think the versatility that Jesus offers will see him contribute goals and assists and I’m anticipating some regression for Harry Kane - just enough to perhaps see him edged out by the City striker.
In defence, I’m going to opt for Antonio Valencia. I don’t see him suffering from the Man Utd rotation and I honestly think that his relationship down the right-flank with Lukaku - who loves to hug that line - will be devastating. At Everton, Seamus Coleman progressed well from the space Lukaku made for him and I think Valencia will do the same.
As for the goalkeeper, I’d love to go with Tom Heaton once again but I do think Micheal Keane’s departure will hurt Burnley and they may actually struggle this time around. I’ll go with Jordan Pickford. He ranked top for minutes per save and I see Everton improving to keep 15 clean sheets next season. With Pickford picking up bonus and save points, I think he might just sneak in as the top ranked keeper.
Most disappointing? I think it will be Alvaro Morata. I just think he may struggle to adjust and Antonio Conte will struggle to give him the time with Michy Batshuayi showing form and pushing for starts. Similarly, I think that Alexandre Lacazette will take some time to settle and the pressure to play Olivier Giroud or even Alexis Sanchez up front may build early.
For me, Mo Salah will be the most productive new arrival - if he can be classed as such. He’ll fit in Jurgen Klopp‘s style seamlessly and I think his pace in tandem with Sadio Mane will tear teams apart. He’s in both my FPL and draft squads and I’m feeling pretty good about that.
Thurman: This conversation has been fascinating for me. Mark and I come at the draft format in this scoring system, which is new to everyone, from entirely different angles. He has been laser-focused on the Premier League salary cap game for years while I’ve been focused on other salary cap scoring systems as well as earlier draft games.
His insights on how he, and others on his team in the draft we participated in, should be instructive to those new to the format. There will be times when it seems like guys from a specific position, most likely forward, are going off the board faster than you’d anticipate. That leaves you with two choices, you can follow the “run” on that position and get a lesser player at that position after a bunch of other managers have just taken from the same spot OR you can zig when everyone else is zagging and pick up value at a different position.
Thanks to Mark for lending his expertise to what I hope is the first of many such discussions over the course of the season.
Oh, and if you’re interested, I agree that Pickford is likely to be among the top scorers in this format but I have Hugo Lloris as my top choice at goalkeeper. The France number one has such an extraordinarily stable situation he is in at Spurs that he’s hard to bet against.
In defense, I am going with a similar theory to Mark’s choice of Antonio Valencia but picking Sead Kolasinac. I am of the opinion that Arsenal’s new left back will be this season’s Marcos Alonso.
In midfield, I’m going with Christen Eriksen following the same logic as my Lloris choice. There are a bunch of talented midfielders including De Bruyne, Hazard, Ozil, Sanchez, etc. but Spurs really don’t have an alternative but to play their Dane as often as possible whereas the rest of the group poses greater risk in the form of rotation or injury.
At forward, I’m going with new Red Devil Romelu Lukaku as my choice for top scorer at forward. Clearly, Harry Kane, Gabriel Jesus, Sergio Aguero, and others have a chance to take the crown but for all the reasons Mark was high on Valencia and more, I think Lukaku will be dynamite with even better teammates around him.
As far as most disappointing, and I may lose my Gunner card for this, I think that Alexis Sanchez, regardless of whether he ends up staying at Arsenal or going to City, will be deployed in a wide role. This won’t make him a worse of a player in real life but will see him in line for significant regression in terms of goals compared to last season.
Finally, I agree that Mo Salah will be the most productive newcomer. Alexandre Lacazette will challenge him but with Adam Lallana now reportedly out for up to three months, Jurgen Klopp likely won’t have much choice but to play Salah in what will be an incredibly potent attack assuming that Coutinho is pulling the strings for Sane, Firmino, and Salah.
