Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Week 32 was, in a word, tolerable. In FPL terms, it was a technical failure, as I picked up a red arrow, but it was a soft blow, dropping only 3,000 places, which is the equivalent of a point or two shy from breaking even. However, some non-FPL related events made it an enjoyable weekend overall. Sticking with fantasy, allow me to take a chance to congratulate myself on clinching the title in a 20-team head to head league following the results of this past weekend. The league, known as The IEFSA, was formed several years ago and comprises managers, like myself, who are FPL content creators. It is a highly competitive and to be able to succeed at this game among one’s peers and contemporaries, well, it is extremely rewarding.
I am always quick to use poker for my analogies and the same would apply here. Playing FPL is like getting a seat at the World Series of Poker. You want to finish at high, respectable spot, but because the field is so large, you cannot have much faith in going all the way. This 20-team league, on the other hand, feels like an actual competition you can win, and with everyone involved equally passionate about the game, you know you have to play well to finish first by the end of a season. Head-to-head leagues can sometimes be frustrating because you can have a team that is, say, carrying a 2-5 record, but has outscored (in total points for the season) another team carrying a 5-2 record. Random scheduling sees the 5-2 team play opponents who put up low scores while the 2-5 side gets unlucky, matching up every week with the manager who posted the highest score in the league for the round. But, over the course of a full season, especially compared to fantasy NFL, where you only have about a dozen games in the regular season, these numbers tend to balance out. This was no cheap title for your humble writer. Considering I am first in points scored and top five in points scored against, I am going to say without hesitation that this one was earned.
Thank you for indulging the epitome of self-congratulations on my part for a few moments. Now, to add one more. (I told you, outside of FPL, no complaints) The other reason I am not at all broken-hearted about dropping rank in FPL this past week is that reality football is going very, very well at the moment. As a Spurs supporter, this has been the loftiest of heights so far this season. Tottenham put in another convincing win, and then, the very same day, my bitter rival, Arsenal, were defeated. The Gunners still have a game in hand over Spurs, but that loss keeps them three points back and Spurs are in the lead by +10 in terms of goal difference, so that extra game for Arsenal, should they win it, still keeps Spurs ahead and in that coveted fourth place position.
If you think for a second that I am gloating about current affairs, please know you could not possibly be more mistaken. This is what happens as a Tottenham supporter seemingly every year, if not, multiple times a year. They disappoint me, then they get on a roll, then they fall back, then they get on a roll…until finally they put themselves in a position to be masters of their own fate. And that…is historically when the wheels come off just that one more time, to yank the heart right out of my chest like some kind of Mortal Kombat finishing move. It is never a question of “if” but “how”. Thursday, May 12, 2022 - the North London Derby…it is going to be LIT.
Regarding the results from last week’s captaincy debate, I think I did pretty well in determining how things were going to go. Putting Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane at the front of the line turned out to be right on the money, and it even felt extra rewarding to choose Son as my cover photo man for the column. Hey, you write a captaincy column, you choose the player who scored the most points of any other in the game behind a hat-trick, you cannot help but feel pretty good about it. Kevin De Bruyne was one of my second-tier, outside-the-box picks and he delivered, despite the tough fixture. In fact, the Liverpool vs Manchester City match really showed us how we tend to overreact a bit when tough sides go head to head. Conventional thinking is that players you tend to depend on most weeks will not be so productive in such a “tough matchup”. But as we saw, talent is talent, and the likes of KDB, Cancelo, Alexander-Arnold, Salah, Mane and Jota all had returns of some sort.
The club that seems to be giving me the most trouble in figuring out what to expect right now is apparently Brentford. The week before last, I thought it was a good idea to back a Chelsea player against the Bees with the armband, if you were looking for an outside-the-box option. Then, last week, not having learned my lesson, I thought Jarrod Bowen was a solid captaincy play against those same Bees and West Ham wound up getting shut down entirely. Meanwhile, Chelsea, a week removed from their embarrassing defeat to Brentford, responded by putting up one of the most lopsided scorelines of the season, a 0-6 torching of Southampton.
This week, we are going to have an interesting debate indeed, as we have a tricky double gameweek to navigate. Ten clubs will be playing one game as normal, but seven clubs will be playing twice, while three others do not have a game at all. The “obvious” direction to go would be to back any one of the elite players who play twice this week, but arguably, there is no such player to fit that bill. The players I trust most right now are playing once, so it becomes a battle between in-form, trustworthy options playing once versus players who show some promise, but have not earned nearly as must trust, but…they play twice.
Right, the weeks are counting down quickly, so let’s not waste any more time and look at the Week 33 landscape for Captain Obvious…
The duo have been featured regularly in recent weeks as elite options for the armband and, despite only having one fixture to play this round, I still feel they deserve to keep that status. Perhaps the optics would indicate that I am riding the fence by nominating Kane and Son together, but honest truth is that I think it is a total coin flip and, more importantly, if you have only one of these two in your squad, then you should feel comfortable backing whichever one that is, and not feel the need to do major surgery to bring the player you do not have in, just so you can captain him instead. Trust me, I have both Kane and Son, have had both for a while now, and this “coin-flip” comes from personal experience. I may truly have to flip a coin.
Recent form would say that Son is the better pick. In his last three games, he has gone insane, scoring six goals, tacking on an assist and nabbing eight of a possible nine bonus points. But, if we used a larger sample size of, say, the last six games…then we see that the two options are much closer in production, with Kane actually getting a slight edge. The main point that needs to be made about this, and it is something that you have hopefully enjoyed as a spectator over the last several seasons - this duo compliment each other so well. As long as Spurs are going well, then you can count on both of these guys to deliver. Even their roster percentages in the FPL game are nearly identical. One does not provide much of a differential over the other. So if you happen to have both, go with a coin flip. Otherwise, whichever one you have is as good a bet as the one you don’t.
Remember: Spurs, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea are among those only playing once this week. Of the seven sides playing twice, only one is considered a “big club” (Manchester United) and, based on how the season as gone for them, I use the term “big club” loosely.
So, if you are going to back a double gameweek player, odds are it is going to be a name you typically don’t associate with captaincy, and I think the player that best represents this line of thinking is James Maddison. He is a solid player and has enjoyed enough success in FPL that we tend to talk him up when Leicester are doing well and the fixtures are good. Well, before talking him up as an armband candidate, let me reinforce those previous notions - Leicester are doing well (7 points from their last three games) and the fixtures are good (three double gameweeks over the next five rounds).
With Newcastle and Everton as their opponents, it could be argued that the Foxes have the best pair of fixtures for any club playing twice this week. To be fair, both games are on the road, and in the case of Everton, they are much better at home than they are away, but in the grand scheme of things, neither the Magpies nor the Toffees are overwhelmingly difficult to contend with on their own ground, at least not this season. And this is why it is always a benefit to back a double gameweek option. Yes, Leicester are capable of putting in a bad performance against either of these sides. BUT (and it is a big “but”...so big, I had to go all caps) should the Foxes lay a dud in one of these games, there is still chance for redemption against the other opponent. I don’t know. I just look at the likes of Newcastle and Everton and I cannot see Leicester doing poorly against BOTH. Sure, I would love to see them take both opponents down and Maddison put up two big scores, but the idea here is that the odds are very good that something very positive will happen at least once.
So, if you believe in my Fuzzy logic, then you can see how it is reasonable to back an option like Maddison. His form is in place, having grabbed attacking returns in his last three league games. Should he grab just one return in either of these two games in the coming round, then add a couple of appearance points for the second game, Maddison has a very good chance of hitting a double-digit score, which, for me, is always enough to feel complacent. It may not always be the best possible choice, but a 10-point return or better is hard to pass up. As a bit of a warning, because of Leicester’s European cup commitments, Brendan Rodgers has been heavily rotating players in and out of his XI. There is no guarantee that Maddison will start both games. But, I do think of all the Foxes that possibly be mentioned as a captaincy choice, Maddison’s chances of starting both is the highest among them all.
It has to be said. Yes, the Red Devils are coming off a shambolic showing at Goodison Park last week, losing and failing to score a goal against a side that has been wading just above the relegation zone for most of the season, and “Yes”, of the two games Manchester United have this week, one is against Liverpool…but based on prior history, I just think I would be remiss and frankly a bit disrespectful were I to exclude Fernandes from the captaincy debate in a double gameweek.
You see, Manchester United had a double gameweek earlier this season - back in Week 22 - and your humble writer made of the more maverick and genius moves of the season…making a space for Bruno Fernandes and then giving him the armband for that double gameweek. It went swimmingly. Two goals, two assists and four bonus points over the two games - good enough to see 23 points doubled. It made for one of the most significant rank climbs of my entire season - if not, THE MOST significant. So you see, I simply cannot turn my back on him here.
In general, I am not bullish on United players at all, and have felt that way for most of the season. No one seems to stay in form for any decent length of time and it makes their options seem what they truly are - overpriced. Cristiano Ronaldo, in particular, has been the bane of my existence this season. From the very get go when it was announced he was returning to United and the FPL community lost their minds over it, while I was thinking there is no way he is going to deliver at rate his price tag should command. But then he scores a brace in his debut and suddenly I look foolish. So I make room for him on my first half wildcard and then what does he do? Stink up the joint for weeks and weeks. So I finally get rid - he bags a brace. He also chose my Spurs as the opponent to have his best game of the season against. I cannot stand the man. Right, I digress. Long story short - I have no trust in Ronaldo, nor Jadon Sancho, nor any United option with the exception of Fernandes. It is his style of play that attracted me to him when I captained him in Double Gameweek 22 and it continues to be what attracts me. When you are that much of a creator, send so many crosses in from open play, send so many balls in from set pieces…when you have two games worth of time to get something from that kind of involvement, you tend to hit. That said, Week 22 does feel more and more like the luckiest of outcomes. The 23 points scored in those two games are the most he has scored in consecutive games all season, and keep in mind he had a 20-point opening round score this season.
Other Names That Interest Me This Week
Mo Salah
I know, it seems strange. Here I am talking about showing respect and then I immediately show myself to be a hypocrite, dropping Mo Salah down to the “honorable mentions” section. Let me just preface things by saying very clearly - Salah is never a ‘bad” captaincy option. He is the league’s best player and he has so far out-paced the entire league that he could blank the rest of the way and still finish top point-scorer for the season.
That said, there are a handful of reasons I do not place him in elite status right now. The biggest reason, and it is one I have been hammering home the past few weeks, is that as we hit the final stretch of the season, if you are looking to make a bigger difference in your rank, then you kind of have to bet against Salah and his overwhelming captaincy percentage. If you have tried the strategy over the last five rounds, there is a good chance you have benefited. In his last five games, Salah has accrued a total of just 21 points, or, just a touch over four points per game. In comparison, Heung-Min Son scored 21 points just this past round, which means, had you captained him, you could have missed terribly on the previous four rounds. You could have captained a Watford defender, let’s say…and you still would have done better than by backing Salah week after week.
Now, let’s be clear - this current “bet against Salah” strategy may be working without a hitch. But let me set the record straight. There will be at least one or two more rounds this week where Salah is the top guy. And I can already picture a response of “why would you steer me away from Salah to begin with”? To that, I say - You just have to have good timing about these things. The next two rounds, with no double gameweek fixtures as of yet, features Liverpool hosting Everton and then traveling to play Newcastle United. Am I going to bet against Salah both of those weeks? Probably not. Betting against Salah is like any game of chance. You cannot expect to bet one way, the same way, every time, and have the results go your way every time. Eventually, you get bit.
That said, with Spurs in such good form and with a solid fixture, paired with seven clubs with a double gameweek to choose from, then adding in the benefit one can gain from captaining a non-Salah option for a better effect on one’s rankings…this is about as low on Salah as you will see me get. This has nothing to do with the matchup itself - think again. Hosting Manchester United does not scare me in the least. The only major worry is if a Salah goal is ruled out and changed to a Harry Maguire own goal after a VAR check. All this said, I suppose the point I want to make about Salah this week is - if you feel he can do well this week, then go ahead and captain him. Because of recent results, his armband stock is falling, which adds to his appeal. I just think I am going to hope he is quiet one more time and then look at backing him next week when his stock is at a season-low.
Manchester City options
I was hoping to make things easy and simply nominate Kevin De Bruyne in this spot. In fact, were he in full fitness, I probably bump him up onto the shortlist of elite picks, but since he is a doubt for the weekend, I simply have to leave him out of the equation. Here is the thing though - if you have a Manchester City option in your squad and are looking for a potential golden goose, then I think you may want to look at that option. It could be Joao Cancelo, Raheem Sterling or Phil Foden. They could be a player in great form or not-so-great form. Then again, when dealing with Pep Guardiola, they could wind up being a player that does not even start. It is tricky because City’s one game this round comes midweek, as they play Liverpool in the FA Cup semi-final this weekend. I would have such a better feel as to who I would focus my attention on for armband consideration knowing who started the FA Cup game and, of course, knowing what, if any, injuries resulted from that game. So to pick a City option is only for the very brave because it is going to be, outside of perhaps Ederson, a relatively blind pick. That said, I think City could do a real number on Brighton in their PL game. Win or lose against the Reds in cup play, they should be highly-motivated to get a convincing win against the Seagulls while Brighton themselves will have to contend with battling City at the Etihad just a few days after having traveled to play Spurs. Brighton could very well get torn apart which means there are fantasy points to be had.
Most weeks, I would say skip the idea altogether. But I think there is enough variety and uncertainty behind the armband this week, with the single game from Spurs attracting some and double gameweek options attracting others, that there is a chance to sneak in an capitalize potentially on City in a week where no one else is.
Right, that about wraps up my thoughts looking around the league this week. This is shaping up to be one of those rounds that will take nearly an entire week to play, but whose enjoyment could be decided 90 minutes past lunchtime on Saturday as my Spurs get Brighton with the early Saturday kickoff. Oh my…the early Saturday kickoff curse…I didn’t even factor that into…bah, nevermind all that. It is superstition stuff…isn’t it???
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
