There is so much to digest in the Premier League right now, my head is spinning. So much so, that I don’t have sufficient time to look back at the previous gameweek. Only enough time to share another tragic fantasy story from Week 23 - in a draft league among PL writers and pundits, where I was tied for first place and matched up head-to-head with the co-leader, a bitter defeat. I built a lead that weekend. I was getting excited as the Tottenham game, the final match of the round, was nearing an end and I had a comfy double-digit lead. It would take something miraculous to lose. Especially considering, my opponent’s only remaining player was Harry Winks.
Oops. Imagine the confused emotions I experienced as the club I support found a match-winner via Winks on the final touch of the ball while simultaneously losing the biggest fantasy matchup of my season in the most unforeseeable way imaginable. Sigh...another day at the office in the world of fantasy football. One of these days, reality and fantasy will both reward me at the same time. I would love to know how that feels.
Right, so I suppose I had a bit of time to share that with you. How could I not? People seem to enjoy hearing the horror stories of playing fantasy. My Twitter account would reinforce that notion. In the buildup to the previous gameweek, I made a mess of my transfers, bringing in Trent Alexander-Arnold early, then he was ruled out, so I dropped him for Luke Shaw and a four point hit. Then, Shaw was a late scratch from the XI with an illness, while thankfully, rumors of TA-A not actually ruled out, but perhaps may play turned out to not be true. Tweeting about the event, I was given a larger response than any previous tweet in ten years. Even with that hot mess of transfers, I still wound up with a green arrow. This can be one perplexing game.
[[ad:athena]]
So here is where we are at now - perhaps the most frenzied part of the season. You have two domestic cups still going on, the Carabao and FA Cups. You have a couple of impact players away for the Asian games now set to return but uncertain if they will feature in Week 24. You have an open transfer window nearing deadline day, so new names like Gonzalo Higuaín have to be considered. And, to top it all off, we have our first official double gameweek of the season, and the deadline for that gameweek is this Saturday.
Let me speak briefly, then, about the double gameweek for Week 25, as transfers for Week 24 should be focused primarily on adding a player, or players, from one of the two clubs, Manchester City and Everton. Let’s break down why you should be somewhat conservative in approaching this round. I would wait until my column for Week 25, but its only a couple of days away and it really needs to be mentioned now.
First off, the matchups. Obviously, the two sides play each other, with Everton hosting, as one of the two games for both sides. In a vacuum, this is not a fixture that would influence my transfers in a normal “single” gameweek. In their other matchups, Everton host Wolves while City will be home against Arsenal. Advantage goes to Everton based on the better second fixture and the fact that they play both games at home, while City split home and away and have to contend with a quality Arsenal side. Then you have to consider Manchester City’s penchant for rotation and Everton’s general tendency to disappoint. Long story short, this is not a situation where I feel you need to have the maximum six players, three from each side, heading into this round. When it comes to City, there’s a 50/50 chance you are bringing in a player that only starts one of two. I just don’t think this is a situation to use a chip in. The Free Hit chip and Bench Boost should definitely be off the table, because those are better utilized in weeks when there are more clubs with a double, and you can have the potential for eleven-fifteen double gameweek players. That leaves the Triple Captain chip. Now, I am not saying it isn’t possible to find success using that chip in Week 25, but bear in mind there are no clear cut “fantastic” options to assign the triple captain to. Again, with City’s deep squad having players come in and out of the XI frequently, it is a massive gamble to guess right on who will start both games. Then again, this is City, so a player like Aguero could start one, play 20 minutes of the other, and have a monster score. Perhaps it is partially due to the fact that I have already used this chip, but it seems a risky proposition here. Keep in mind though, what occurs in Week 24 could change my tune. An injury, a suspension, a meteoric rise in form from a particular player...might make me feel more confident in using the triple captain chip.
My approach to this looming double gameweek is this. Bring in an Everton player this week. They play Huddersfield, who have more losses than goals scored. They are terrible. You have a very good chance at returns for both attacking and defending. Wait until Week 25 to bring in a City player. It affords one more match to get a better guess at how the double gameweek will play out in terms of starting XI’s. Then, I would spend four points on one more double gameweek representative. A player who looks very safe to start both matches, therefore turning a -4 into what is really only a -2. I am going to assume you have at least one City player already, perhaps an Everton player as well, so this formula would give you at least four, probably five players from these two sides out of a maximum six, for a price of only four points, preserving your Wildcard or Free Hit chip, and not turning your squad upside-down in an attempt to overreach on this double gameweek. Remember, both of these sides will have a blank two rounds later. So, in theory, if you have five DGW players, you would have two free transfers to take two out in time for the blank and three spots on your bench to stash the remaining blanks. If you were to squeeze a sixth double gameweek player in for Week 25, now you are talking about needing to spend points to get that extra player out.
So, in short, spend the next couple of free transfers on one of Everton or City, but no need to have more than four double gameweek players. Five is ok, but no more than that. Three is probably ok as well, but no less than that. Got it? Good.
A longer intro than usual, so let’s get down to business and look at the landscape for Week 24...
Follow the entire Rotoworld Premier League team on Twitter: Neal | Steve | Andrew | Sean | Stag | Ben | Galin | Nik
TO HAVE AND TO HOLD
So now it is time to look at the players to think about ahead of Week 4. As a reminder, there are four categories of players which I feel are worth mentioning week to week when making decisions about transfers....
1) Players to buy
2) Players to sell
3) Players to hold onto
4) Players to avoid buying
I will also include later in the section, my top choices for the captain’s armband. While I will consider every player from A to Z, you will normally find the usual suspects there.
Right, so let’s dive in...
GOALKEEPERS
*Just as a reminder, keepers should always be the last position to think about using transfers for, unless there is an urgent need. So, when you see who I have listed here, bear in mind that my keeper advice does not carry as much weight as the outfield positions.
Player to buy: Hugo Lloris - Spurs are without some huge names in attack, but the defense, which had a slew of injuries not long ago, is back to near 100%. Because of Kane and Alli’s unavailability, I would expect Mauricio Pochettino to make defending the priority. Spurs have three straight at home and I think they can grab clean sheets in two of them. For the vast majority of you out there though, keeper is not where you should be concentrating on. I thought about nominating Ederson, but unless you have a second keeper who is starting right now, then you are setting yourself up for a transfer out of Ederson just two rounds later.
Player to sell: Kasper Schmeichel - Liverpool, Manchester United and Spurs in the next three. That’s about all you need to know about all Leicester prospects.
Player to hold: Bernd Leno - Clean sheets have been few and far between for Arsenal this season, but Leno is coming off a clean sheet and the Gunners have fantastic fixtures ahead, as long as you can withstand the fact that they play Manchester City next round. I’d rather have Leno for the next three rounds than I would either double gameweek option, Ederson or Jordan Pickford.
Player to avoid: Artur Boruc - The veteran Boruc was finally given a shot ahead of Asmir Begovic and was involved in a rare Bournemouth clean sheet in the process. You can guarantee that is enough to keep Boruc in for several weeks. Still, even if the Cherries improve defensively, it will not result in a big rise in cleanies, considering they have Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal among their next five opponents.
DEFENDERS
Player to buy: Lucas Digne - Congratulations, Mr. Digne. For the first time, I have nominated a player to buy for the third straight round. The revelation of a double gameweek was enough to make it happen. Yes, Digne broke our hearts in the last round with a -1 return. But, he has three double-digit returns since Week 16, never going more than two games without hitting big. So do the math, with Huddersfield this weekend and a double gameweek on deck, Digne is poised for at least one monster return in there somewhere.
Player to sell: Marcos Alonso - Alonso was a starter among many second-stringers in Chelsea’s FA Cup match last night, which has me worried he is a potential risk to start this coming round. It’s away to Bournemouth, so I don’t a clean sheet coming for the Blues anyway, as the Cherries are pretty consistent at finding the net at least once against any opposition. Also, Chelsea have a blank in Week 27, so you are likely wanting to ship him out for that anyway. Add in his expensive price tag, which could potentially help afford some double gameweek players and this seems a wise move.
Player to hold: Luke Shaw - Shaw was a popular transfer in ahead of the last round, but he broke hearts as a late scratch for United’s win over Brighton. It was simply a badly-timed illness, not an injury, and you will see his status as flag-free right now. The way United are playing right now, you do not want to drop him.
Player to avoid: Fabian Schar - I played my Triple Captain with Mo Salah at home versus Fulham. I should have know it wiser to play it with Schar at home to Cardiff. When a defender scores a brace, points...they are a-flowin’. But, unless its a fullback who gets forward a ton, puts in crosses, has set piece work, or something extra like to offer, then transferring a player in on the back of a brace is simply chasing points. Luckily, with City and Spurs the next two opponents, Schar will not trick you into buying him after a 21-point return.
MIDFIELDERS
Player to buy: Gylfi Sigurdsson - Players like Siggy almost seem designed for double gameweeks. I have all faith he will start both barring injury, and you have to love his ability score via set piece even when overall Everton attack is not flowing very well. He gets the nod over Richarlison for me, as the Brazilian has hit a funk in recent weeks. Nothing much more to sell you on, you know what you are getting with the Icelandic sensation.
Player to sell: Roberto Pereyra - Credit where it is due to Pereyra. If you told me a dozen midfielders would have over 100 points at this stage of the season, I would not have had guessed he would be among them. That said, his form comes in bunches and we are on a four round run of averaging two point returns. That could mean another points explosion is “due” soon, but for my money it isn’t happening away to Spurs this week. Now would be the time to move him out for a player like Sigurdsson.
Player to hold: David Silva - I feel pretty good about this one. Silva was not in the XI in the previous PL match and he was not in the XI over the weekend for the FA Cup match. That pretty much guarantees, for me, that he will start this coming match against the Magpies. So hold on to him surely, and roll with whatever you might get from him in the double gameweek.
Player to avoid: Heung-Min Son - If you held on to Son during his international commitment, then you are feeling pretty good about the fact that South Korea was knocked out earlier than expected and Sonny is on his way back home. However, Son admitted himself he was not feeling 100%, saying he felt “physically empty”. As badly as his attacking influence is needed at a time when Dele Alli and Harry Kane are out, I worry about his potential to start Week 24. Really, you should avoid all players not wearing a Everton or City shirt, but Son seemed to warrant some special attention.
FORWARDS
Player to buy: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - Yes, PEA has been quiet in his last two league games, so there isn’t much in that department to make a case for his purchase. This is more about exploiting matchups. I think Arsenal will plow over Cardiff with three or four goals. Aubameyang is a solid captaincy differential over the more popular choice, Mo Salah. If you can live with the fact that the Gunners have no double next week, then you would love what their schedule looks like, so the position’s top scorer looks poised to stay at the top for the next several weeks.
Player to sell: Jamie Vardy - As easy as it is to nominate double gameweek options as strong “buys”, it is just as easy to pick on Leicester when it comes to “sells”. It is just brutal for the next three rounds, facing first place Liverpool, red-hot Manchedter United, and then a trip to Spurs.
Player to hold: Marko Arnautovic - I gave proper warning ahead of the last round to ditch Arnie, who had one foot in China when I last wrote a column. Well, if you happened to miss that news and kept him for his non-showing last round, good news for you...for now. Arnautovic has signed a new contract and will stay at West Ham, so no need to remove him just yet. Instead, remove him after his next inevitable injury. (that’s the “for now” part of the good news)
Player to avoid: Marcus Rashford - Not that there has been reason to move him out as his form is sizzling. I just want to make a point to not overdo things with double gameweeks. Rashford, even with his price surging up in recent days, is offering ridiculous value for his price. I am going to find it hard even in larger double gameweeks to not hold on to him. A little early to be talking about the run-in, but as things look now, Rashford will stay in my squad all the way to season’s end.
TOP CAPTAIN CHOICES
1) Mo Salah
3) Paul Pogba
5) Eden Hazard
That’s it from me this week folks. Please, bear in mind much can change between the publishing of this column and the FPL deadline on Tuesday. Remember, some injuries are not revealed until just before the deadline. Always try to refrain from executing your transfers for as long as possible to avoid wasting it on a player who turns out to have had a problem in training. That said, if you only have just enough money for the player you are looking to bring in and that player is at risk of rising in price, then sometimes you need to take a calculated risk and hope the fantasy gods will be kind to you.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
