I had a unique upbringing, as my family owned a neighborhood candy store on Main Street in Flushing, Queens. Lots of friends and neighbors would hang out in the store, and conversation often drifted to two topics: baseball and horse racing. In between conversations about who would win the Daily Double at Aqueduct, we would always be agonizing about our beloved New York Mets (we were walking distance from Shea Stadium, so the Metsies were the only logical team of choice). It’s somewhat fitting, as an MLB season is six months long, while the Kentucky Derby prep season is also approximately six months long. Believe me, in horse racing and in baseball, a lot can change over those six months.
The 2025 season was proof of just how long six months can be. The Mets were as good as it gets for the first couple of months of the season. Then they went into a swan dive that even owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets couldn’t prevent, failing to reach the postseason.
Similar situations happen on the Kentucky Derby trail. Since the Breeders’ Cup came into existence in 1984, only two winners of the Juvenile have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby the following spring. It’s a grind to keep a top horse going over that stretch. Last year, for example, a two-year-old named Ted Noffey dominated his competition and went on to win the Juvenile and the Eclipse Award as the top two-year-old of the year. In late January, however, it was announced that he had bone bruising and was not going to run in the three-year-old classics. Just this weekend, it was announced that early Kentucky Derby favorite Paladin had a non-displaced fracture in his right front ankle that would keep him out of the Triple Crown races. You’ll also factor in the belief that racehorses change the most in the transition from two to three, meaning the evolution of a young thoroughbred can have some unexpected twists and turns.
Now, as March turns into April, we’ve arrived at some of the major preps for the first Saturday in May. This is the part of the season when dreams can go up in smoke, and just as easily, unexpected contenders can emerge. This past Saturday, with the running of the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby, the overall picture started gaining some clarity.
Most experts felt the Florida Derby field was loaded with talent, while many were not so sure about the quality of the field in Hot Springs, Arkansas. I felt that the best horse in the Florida Derby was Nearly, the race favorite from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.His previous start was in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, and he won by almost six lengths. There were three other strong horses in the Florida Derby field. Commandment had beaten Chief Wallabee by a neck in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and The Puma was the late-closing winner of the Tampa Bay Derby.Of those four horses, three of them ran their “A” race in the Florida Derby.Commandment held off the late close of The Puma to beat him by a nose, with Chief Wallabee another half-length back in third. The red flag, however, must go up regarding Nearly, the horse who I thought was the best of the bunch in the race. He was a soundly defeated fourth, almost three lengths behind Chief Wallabee. The chart of the race said that he vied to mid-stretch and weakened through the final furlong. That is not a good sign, especially when the Kentucky Derby asks that these horses go an additional eighth of a mile beyond the distance they have to run in Florida.
READ MORE: Commandment wins the Florida Derby, now eyes Kentucky Derby
While Todd Pletcher may have been disappointed with the performance of Nearly in the Florida Derby, he was also a presence in Arkansas. The overall quality of the Arkansas Derby field didn’t seem to be as strong and deep as the field in Florida. Keep in mind, however, the concept of how horses change from age two to age three.Pletcher’s horse in the Arkansas Derby was Renegade, a horse who was purchased for $975,000 as a yearling.
As a two-year-old, he posted two seconds and a third in three races, although one of those second-place finishes was in the prestigious Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. To start his three-year-old season, Pletcher sent him to the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay.This race is usually a prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, but Pletcher had other plans. After Renegade romped at Tampa Bay, Pletcher decided he would be a good fit for the Arkansas Derby.Renegade ended up dominating the race, coming from off the pace to win easily by four lengths.
As for the others in the field, Silent Tactic was the second choice in the wagering and proved to be the best of them. After winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and finishing second in the Rebel Stakes at the same track, it was logical to stay there for the Arkansas Derby.He finished second, but that four-length defeat will be a lot to make up between now and May 2nd.
READ MORE: Renegade Blows Away Rivals in Arkansas Derby Win
Two other horses were bet strongly at the windows as the co-third choice. They were Blackout Time, trained by Ken McPeek, and Litmus Test, trained by Bob Baffert. Respectively, they finished fifth and seventh, and their connections are probably questioning whether they should move forward to Kentucky.
Finally, we should flash back to the Louisiana Derby, which was run one week earlier. Chad Brown trains the now-injured Paladin, but he had a lightly-raced horse in the race who deserved attention. Emerging Market entered with just one previous start in a maiden race, which he won. His late-closing style served him well in Louisiana, and he got up to win the Louisiana Derby by three-quarters of a length over the Doug O’Neill-trained Pavlovian, who has now put together two consecutive solid races (the first was his win in the Sunland Derby). We’re not sure how strong the field was in this race, but it is clear that Emerging Market was very impressive in his second career start.
These races gave the three-year-old picture some clarity, but a great deal more will be revealed next Saturday, when three more races will be run that give 100 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. In the Santa Anita Derby, the name Bob Baffert always takes center stage. He has won this race nine times, and the likely two top favorites for this year’s edition are from his barn. The likely favorite is Potente, who was a $2.4 million yearling purchase.He enters after a win by a head in the San Felipe Stakes, defeating 67-1 shot Robusta (trained by Doug O’Neill) and So Happy (trained by Mark Glatt). Robusta and So Happy are expected to be in the field for the Santa Anita Derby. The other Baffert trainee who will draw attention is Cherokee Nation, a $1.15 million purchase who did not post his first win until his sixth start. He’s a huge animal and is the tallest and heaviest contestant in most any race he enters. There’s a lot of buzz around him as a late improver who could be dangerous in longer distance races.
The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland was expected to draw the now-injured Paladin, and without him the field is a bit light. Horses likely to enter include Class President, Further Ado, and Great White. Class President won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn in his last start by a nose over Silent Tactic, who was then beaten by 4 lengths in the Arkansas Derby by Renegade. It can be assumed that he will have to be on a path to improvement to succeed at Keeneland and then at Churchill Downs. Further Ado lost by less than a length to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby and should be very tough here. Also, Great White has won two of three in his career, but all three starts were on the synthetic track at Turfway Park.How he adapts to running on a dirt surface remains to be seen.
The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct has averaged less than nine starters over the last 20 years, but this year it has drawn 13 entries. Notable among them is likely favorite Iron Honor, from the barn of Chad Brown. He is unbeaten in two starts, including the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in his last effort. Napoleon Solo is one of those who may have declined in the transition to his 3-year-old season. Last year he won the prestigious Champagne Stakes, but in his most recent start he was fifth in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. He needs to improve here. Talk To Me Jimmy is a dangerous entry from Rudy Rodriguez. He won the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct by 11 lengths and is making his first start since that race eight weeks ago. Also in the field is the Bob Baffert trainee Buetane. He was bought for $1.15 million and has been disappointing, with one win in five starts. With the exception of Iron Honor and possibly Talk To Me Jimmy, the bulk of this field is filled with horses looking to prove they belong at the top levels of the three-year-old class.
So what does it all add up to, with just over a month to go until the 152nd Kentucky Derby? From races that have already been run, I can point to five horses who look like top-level Derby contenders. They are Commandment, The Puma, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, and Renegade. Others will emerge from the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, and the Wood Memorial this Saturday. From that point forward, we begin the tense four weeks until May 2nd in Louisville. There will be anxiety over who has enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby field. Then, even with those who have enough points, there will be doubts, as trainers and owners question whether their horses have the class and distance ability the Derby requires. Plenty has changed in the last six months, and plenty will change in the next few weeks as we look forward to the most exciting two minutes in sports.
When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
The 152nd Kentucky Derby is Saturday, May 2nd, 2026. TV coverage kicks off at 12pm ET across Peacock and NBCSN, and begins on NBC at 2:30pm ET.
