If you sit down to fill out a bracket and have a moment where you say to yourself “What am I doing?”, you’re not alone. There are a lot of games to pick, and you don’t want to simply pick the higher seed every game. How do you pick your spots for upsets while keeping the teams that will make it deep into the tournament?
Here are a few tips you can keep in mind while filling out your men’s and women’s March Madness brackets.
1. Pick a 1-seed to be your champion
On the men’s side, 26 of the 40 national champions have been 1-seeds. That’s not a massive percentage, but consider that the next most is the 2-seed with five, and you’ll see that picking one of the favorites is the way to go.
Top seeds are an even better bet in the women’s bracket, making up 23 of the 31 champions since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1994.
2. But, don’t have every 1-seed make the Final Four
Last year was a rarity that saw all four 1-seeds make the men’s Final Four. It was only the second time that has happened since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The top teams are very strong this season, but at least one is likely to fall short of Indianapolis.
All four women’s 1-seeds making it to the Final Four is also rare. It has only happened four times since 1982, although three have come in the last 14 years (2012, 2015 and 2018).
3. Consider when to have a 2-seed fall early
All four No. 2 seeds have made the Sweet 16 in only three of the last 28 men’s tournaments. Last year was the first time since 2007 that three 2-seeds made the Elite Eight.
Only 65 of the possible 124 2-seeds have made the Elite Eight since 1994 on the women’s side, so picking two to go out before the Elite Eight is smart.
4. Trying to pick that one Cinderella is a risky move
Since 2001, 25 teams from non-power conferences have made the men’s Sweet 16 as a double-digit seed per FOX Sports. That works out to about one per year, which sounds like a solid proposition until you remember that there are 28 double-digit seed spots in the main tournament.
It’s pretty similar on the women’s side; a double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 in 38 of 40 tournaments. But what is the likelihood you’ll pick that team correctly, if it happens at all? In both brackets, pick one if you love one, but don’t force it.
5. Don’t go upset crazy — especially on the women’s bracket
The trend away from upsets — which could be caused by NIL and the transfer portal — affects both the men’s and women’s side. The women’s bracket has always been chalkier, but last year was the first year ever where no team beat another that was five seed lines ahead of them. Be very selective — pick a few, probably no more than five.
Last year was also light on upsets on the men’s side, with only four total and none from the Sweet 16 on. It’s possible this is just a blip caused by small sample size, but it’s probably better for your bracket to lean on the safer side and pick between five and eight upsets.
