With a star-studded roster featuring the likes of Aaron Judge, Paul Skenes, and Bobby Witt Jr., Team USA entered this year’s World Baseball Classic as the favorites to walk away with their first title since 2017. Suddenly, it’s far from a guarantee that Team USA will even advance to the quarterfinals.
With a shocking 8-6 loss to Italy on Tuesday night, Team USA no longer controls their own destiny to advance from pool play of the World Baseball Classic.
Below are the various scenarios at play going into a decisive Wednesday in the tournament.
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How Team USA can advance in the World Baseball Classic
1) If Italy defeats Mexico on Wednesday night
This is the simplest way. Italy, at 4-0, would win Pool B and Team USA (3-1) would advance as the runner-up.
2) If Mexico defeats Italy and Mexico scores five or more runs in a nine-inning game.
In this scenario, all three teams would finish 3-1 in Pool B, but Mexico and Team USA would advance via tiebreaker.
How Team USA could be eliminated on Wednesday
If Mexico defeats Italy and scores four or fewer runs in a nine-inning game. Again, all three teams would finish 3-1 in Pool B, but Mexico and Italy would advance via tiebreaker.
World Baseball Classic tiebreaker details
If there’s a two-team tiebreaker…
- If two teams are tied 2-2 in pool play, the tiebreaker goes to the team who won the head-to-head matchup
If there’s a three-team tiebreaker… (the scenario relevant to Team USA and Pool B)
- Runs allowed divided by defense outs recorded in the games between the tied teams (lowest quotient the better)
- Earned runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in the games between the tied teams (lowest quotient the better)
- Highest batting average in games between the tied teams
- Drawing of lots, or a random selection to break the tie
Below is the current breakdown going into Tuesday’s game between Italy and Mexico. Keep in mind that Team USA has already played four games, hence the disparity in defensive outs.
| Team | Runs allowed | Earned runs allowed | Defensive Outs | Runs allowed/defense outs | Earned runs/defensive outs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA (3-1) | 11 | 8 | 54 | 0.2037 | 0.1481 |
| Mexico (2-1) | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0.2083 | 0.2083 |
| Italy (3-0) | 6 | 6 | 27 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 |
How to Watch Italy vs. Mexico in the WBC on Wednesday night
- When: Wednesday, March 11
- Where: Daikin Park, Houston, Texas
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV/Live Stream: FS1
Aaron Nola is slated to pitch for Team Italy while Mexico has yet to announce their starting pitcher.
