Zack

Wheeler

Wheeler makes his return to Philadelphia’s rotation after undergoing surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome last August. The 35-year-old former fantasy ace’s velocity has been down consistently during a handful of recent minor league rehab outings, which makes it challenging to forecast how he’ll fare from a fantasy perspective. It’s impossible to dismiss Wheeler entirely based on his lengthy track record of success, but a wait-and-see approach seems like the best idea given his extended layoff and how he’s looked in minor league games recently.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson told reporters they’ll have an announcement regarding Wheeler’s status this week. The 35-year-old veteran’s velocity was down once again during his final rehab outing over the weekend as he was tagged for four runs over four innings. The former fantasy ace figures to return to Philadelphia’s rotation for his season debut later this week, but they want to see how he’s feeling before making that call.

Wheeler was not as good statistically as he was in his first rehab start Tuesday, where he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings. The results really aren’t all that important right now; the important thing is that he’s building up his workload. However, Wheeler also sat just 91 mph with his four-seam fastball in this one, and the pitch was getting hit hard. He tried to rely almost exclusively on his off-speed pitches, but that’s not the Wheeler that we’ve come to expect. Maybe it was just due to the cold, but Wheeler is coming back from a pretty major surgery, so it’s prudent for fantasy managers not to expect immediate success. The veteran likely will make one more rehab, but the next steps will be determined in part by how he feels in the coming days.

There’s no publicly available Statcast data below Triple-A, but The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reports Wheeler was sitting 94 mph and touched 95 in his first inning of work. The 35-year-old former fantasy ace’s diminished velocity has been a concern throughout his rehab assignment as he works his way back from last year’s thoracic outlet syndrome procedure, but it appears the Phillies are ready to bring him back to the majors soon. He’s expected to make a final rehab start at Double-A Reading on Sunday. His extensive track record suggests he can still be an impactful fantasy contributor, though it remains unclear whether he’ll return to his previous level of performance.

Wheeler’s fastball velocity was down for the second consecutive outing, averaging just 92.9 mph after sitting near 96 mph last year. The bigger concern is his inability to sustain velocity, as he dropped from nearly 94 mph in the opening frame to barely 92 mph by the fourth inning in his latest rehab start. He threw 61 pitches (44 strikes) in his third rehab tune-up. The 35-year-old former ace can still be an effective fantasy contributor at reduced velocity, but his chances of reclaiming ace status appear slim if that extra gear doesn’t return. All indications are that he’ll rejoin Philadelphia’s rotation for his season debut at some point in the near future.

Wheeler finished with one strikeout while allowing four hits, including a home run, and issuing a pair of walks. The results are less concerning than his fastball velocity, which averaged just 92.7 mph after sitting in the 96 mph range last year. The 35-year-old threw 49 pitches (26 strikes) in his second rehab outing as he continues to build up towards a potential late-April or early-May return to Philadelphia’s rotation coming off last year’s thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

It will be Wheeler‘s second rehab start, and he is expected to throw between 50 and 55 pitches. He will then make one more rehab start in Triple-A next week before potentially returning to the Phillies rotation. Obviously, all this depends on how he feels and looks in his next two starts.

Wheeler, coming back from thoracic outlet surgery, threw 38 pitches. His velocity was down 2.5-3 mph from last year, which might or might not be a concern. If he was trying to throw as hard as he could and only came in at 92-94 mph, that would be a problem. But if he was just easing into things, being down 2-3 mph sounds about right. We will just note that last year, Wheeler averaged 95.9 mph with his fastball in his first spring outing, which was practically a match for the 96.1 mph he averaged during the season. Wheeler is due to make two more rehab starts before being reevaluated.

Wheeler is scheduled to throw roughly 45 pitches in his first rehab outing to be followed by two additional tune-up starts before the Phillies make a determination on his status. That rough timeline puts him on track to potentially make his season debut by the end of April or early May, barring any complications.

Wheeler, who had thoracic outlet surgery in September, threw two innings in a simulated game on Monday and is expected to make a rehab start in Triple-A on Saturday. Barring a setback, he should rejoin the Phillies rotation before the end of April