Three races remain in the Cup Series regular season. Four spots are open above the cutline, but the pressure is intensifying for winless drivers.
Races at Richmond and Michigan have shaken up the bubble. Bubba Wallace has increased his cushion over the cutline, while Michael McDowell has fallen out of the final playoff spot. In his place is rookie Ty Gibbs, who has a slight points advantage heading to Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s road course.
McDowell is no longer in the final playoff spot, but he remains within reach. Daniel Suarez is in a similar position after he used a sixth-place finish at Michigan International Speedway to overtake AJ Allmendinger.
There are eight drivers within 60 points of the playoff cutline heading toward Indianapolis. Three are within five points.
The Bubble:
15th: Bubba Wallace (+58 above the cutline)
Season stats: 23 starts with six top-10 finishes and four top fives. Five DNFs. Finished 18th at Michigan after scoring 16 points in the first two stages.
Best opportunity to win: Wallace has made strides at road courses, especially at Indianapolis where he has a fifth-place finish to his name. However, his main opportunity will be Daytona.
Wallace has four top-10 finishes and four top fives in 12 career starts at Daytona. Three of these finishes were runner-ups behind the race winner.
Wallace does not need to win a race in the remaining three weeks. If there is only one new winner, he should remain above the cutline. He just needs to minimize the amount of points lost at the road courses.
16th: Ty Gibbs (+3)
Season stats: 23 starts with six top-10 finishes and one top five. Two DNFs. Finished 11th at Michigan.
Best opportunity to win: Gibbs has a strong enough car that he could win in any of the three remaining races, but the road courses will stand out. The 2022 Xfinity Series champion has achieved success at Watkins Glen in the second-tier series, and he finished 17th at Indianapolis last season in what was his second career Cup start.
17th: Michael McDowell (-3 below the cutline)
Season stats: 23 starts with five top-10 finishes and one top five. One DNF. Finished 24th at Michigan.
Best opportunity to win: McDowell made it through the stretch of the season that crew chief Travis Peterson viewed as the start of their playoffs. Now McDowell heads to three tracks where he could contend for the win. He has past success on road courses with nine top-10 finishes and one top five, and he has a previous win at Daytona.
18th: Daniel Suarez (-5)
Season stats: 23 starts with seven top-10 finishes and two top fives. Four DNFs. Finished sixth at Michigan after scoring 14 points in the first two stages.
Best opportunity to win: Suarez made a 29-point swing at Michigan by scoring points in the first two stages and finishing sixth. Now he is only five points back of the cutline heading to two tracks where he will have an opportunity to win.
Suarez’s lone Cup win was on a road course – Sonoma last season – and he finished fifth at Watkins Glen last season. Trackhouse Racing cars have been strong on all of NASCAR’s road courses, which sets up Suarez for two consecutive opportunities to contend for the win.
19th: AJ Allmendinger (-24)
Season stats: 23 starts with four top-10 finishes and one top five. Three DNFs. Finished 26th at Michigan.
Best opportunity to win: Allmendinger lost out on points during the races at Richmond and Michigan. He fell to 24 points below the cutline. Now he is heading to two road courses where he has previous Cup wins.
20th: Alex Bowman (-44)
Season stats: 20 starts, six top-10 finishes and three top fives. Two DNFs. Finished 33rd at Michigan after crashing in the final stage. He scored 10 points in the first two stages.
Best opportunity to win: Bowman does not have a win at any of the remaining tracks on the regular-season schedule, but he has performed consistently at NASCAR’s road courses. He has 27 starts with 10 top-10 finishes and four top fives. Though he seeks his first top 10 at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen.
21st: Austin Cindric (-53)
Season stats: 23 starts with three top-10 finishes. Two DNFs. Finished 12th at Michigan.
Best opportunity to win: Like McDowell, Cindric is a driver with three opportunities to win and punch his ticket to the playoffs. His lone Cup win is the 2022 Daytona 500. He also has two top-10 finishes and one top five in two career starts at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
22nd: Chase Elliott (-55)
Season stats: 16 starts, eight top-10 finishes and five top fives. Three DNFs. Finished 36th at Michigan after crashing with a flat tire.
Best opportunity to win: Elliott’s last road course win was Road America in 2021. He has not reached Victory Lane at a road course in the Next Gen era, but he remains one of NASCAR’s top names to watch at these particular tracks. For example, Elliott won the pole at Watkins Glen last season and finished fourth.
Elliott will continue to be a prominent name mentioned as NASCAR prepares for back-to-back road courses. He has seven Cup wins on road courses, and he is in a must-win situation after crashing at Michigan.
