What the Mavericks should do when the lockout ends
Welcome back to an ongoing series here at PBT, in which we examine the post-lockout course of action of every team in the league. Kurt kicked things off yesterday with a look at the Lakers’ preseason plans, and today we’ll dive into the docket sitting in front of the WORLD* CHAMPION Dallas Mavericks. Tomorrow you can enjoy a look into the basement, with an Analysis of the Timberwolves’ projected plans for the summer.
*The world is not flat, the sun doesn’t orbit around the United States, and the NBA is not the world.
Last season in Dallas: Pretty ho-hum, really. The Mavs just played high-level basketball throughout the regular season, endured a season-ending injury to their second best player, succeeded while their preseason x-factor sat on the bench, added new contributors mid-stride, rallied through yet another costly injury, beat a murderer’s row of playoff opponents in amazing fashion, and capped it all off by hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy for the first time in franchise history. No big.
Since we last saw the Mavericks: Not much has changed. A million talk show appearances later, this team is more or less where we left it; ready to compete in the coming season (after a few moves in free agency to either preserve the current core or bolster it), but likely still a step removed from the title favorites. Dallas went on a miraculous run to take the 2011 title, but they can likely do no more than put themselves in a position to roll the dice come next year’s playoffs. That was good enough to roll all the way through the Finals in 2011, but it’s no guarantee that they’ll be favorites come next postseason.
A few other notes: Dirk Nowitzki and J.J. Barea are representing their countries (err, country and territory, respectively) in EuroBasket, Tyson Chandler told Henry Abbott of TrueHoop that his preliminary negotiations with the Mavericks didn’t exactly go swimmingly, and Rodrigue Beaubois and Caron Butler have continued working toward healthy seasons in 2011-2012.
When the lockout ends, the Mavericks need to… Choose one of the following paths: (1) re-sign Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, and possibly J.J. Barea in order to maintain their current competitive core, (2) re-sign either Chandler or Butler while covering for the other’s loss with positional depth, or (3) let both Chandler and Butler walk while bracing for a bit of a drop-off. Dallas’ off-season -- in whatever form the lockout allows -- leans heavily on free agency and the decisions made by all parties within it.
Losing Butler would be a shame, but losing Chandler would legitimately move the franchise down a peg in terms of their immediate competitive worth. Brendan Haywood is a good, starting-caliber center (regardless of what his 2010-2011 production would have you believe), but Chandler is a talent who can elevate a team’s collective defense while augmenting their offensive flow. Players like that don’t come around often, and as the Mavs will find out shortly, they don’t come cheap.
Butler, too, is rather important, and he’ll likely be the best player the Mavs can “add” to their current roster thanks to the limitations of the salary cap. He didn’t play a minute of playoff basketball last season, and thus if Dallas can re-sign him, Butler would bring the added boost of a roster addition with the built-in familiarity of a franchise mainstay. An interesting combination, to be sure. Plus, not only is Butler a flat-out superior scorer to the rotating cast of players the Mavs utilized on the wing, but he also brings a slew of specific skills that allow him to be particularly successful in Dallas: he’s emerged as quite a threat from the corners, can create his own shot more effectively than any Maverick not named Dirk, and is a very effective perimeter defender. Even championship teams need to find ways to improve, and adding Butler back into the rotation is the simplest way for the Mavs to do so.
Regardless of how free agency unfolds for the Mavs, Rick Carlisle must find minutes for the roster’s young talent this season. Carlisle gave Rodrigue Beaubois a legitimate shot after his initial return from injury last season, but Beaubois never found a good rhythm and was eventually shelved with a complication to that same injury. Corey Brewer found limited minutes after being picked up by Dallas mid-season, but he wasn’t familiar enough with the Mavericks’ system to become a regular member of the rotation. Dominique Jones is an interesting prospect, but he, too, didn’t have much of an opportunity in the Mavs’ crowded backcourt. There are still plenty of veterans on the roster that will be worthy of minutes, but Carlisle needs to begin preparing for the next stage of this franchise’s life cycle by carving out playing time for the neophytes. We use words like “veteran,” and “experienced,” to describe Dallas, but it’s all pretty much code for “old.” Dallas’ key contributors are aging, and while there are no budding stars on the roster who demand minutes, Beaubois, Brewer, and Jones are all capable of being long-term contributors for an NBA team. They’ll bring value to the franchise with either their production or their trade value if given the opportunity, but that process begins with seeing the floor.