One of the more popular Super Bowl bets is MVP. Lets take a look at a handful of candidates from the four remaining teams, their current odds at DraftKings, and spend a second laying out what needs to happen for each to claim the award.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson (+220)
Of the remaining four teams, only Patrick Mahomes rivals the importance of a player to his team’s success. It would take an injury or superhuman performance by any other Ravens’ player to snatch the MVP from Jackson should Baltimore win. With the Ravens listed at just +190 to win the Super Bowl, the smarter play is Jackson to win the MVP.
Odell Beckham Jr. (+10000)
He was on his way to the MVP when the Rams won in 2021 until he blew out his knee. Now more of a possession receiver, its difficult to see a path to him overshadowing his quarterback. Little value.
Gus Edwards (+10000)
Edwards was a touchdown machine in 2023 scoring 13 times during the regular season. He is not a workhorse, though, and in fact is routinely outgained by Jackson. No value.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes (+400)
His reputation alone demands he be given serious consideration for the award. More value to bet Mahomes to twin MVP than the Chiefs (+380) to win the Super Bowl. The unquestioned best in the game for a reason. Worth a play at 4/1.
Travis Kelce (+5000)
Swifties will scream for Travis to claim the MVP and if he can catch 9 or more balls for 160 or more along with 2-3 touchdowns and maybe. Kelce is Mahome’s primary target so again, maybe. As unlikely as it is, do you want all of Swiftie Nation to come after you if you do not get on board?
Isiah Pacheco (+6600)
Pacheco has been special in the playoffs rushing for 89 yards (3.7yds/carry) against Miami and for 97 yards (6.5yds/carry) at Buffalo with a touchdown in each game. If he can push those numbers north of 100 yards and score a couple times in a low-scoring game, the path is there. However, if he rushes for 125 yards and two scores in a 45-37 Chiefs’ win, it probably will not be enough. He needs those numbers in a 20-13 game. IF you like a low-scoring game, worth at least a moment of consideration.
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy (+325)
As big of a hit (fair or otherwise) as Purdy has taken since struggling against the Ravens late in the regular season, a solid Super Bowl puts him in the MVP conversation. Anything other than a monster game by CMC and Purdy more than likely jogs off the field with the award. The #1-rated QB for the majority of the season, the spotlight will not be too big for him.
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Christian McCaffrey (+600)
CMC is, however, capable of dominating a game and the 49ers may need him to do so if they are to win that Sunday in Vegas. Yes, Purdy was good on the final drive against Green Bay, but McCaffrey was the source of the majority of their offense for the bulk of that game – 128 total yards with two touchdowns. It is difficult to believe he will not win should he eclipse the 24 touches he got last game vs. Green Bay.
***If you believe in the 49ers, consider playing McCaffrey to score first (+650) in the Super Bowl. That price will plummet should the favored 49ers advance on Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk (+5000)
Much like the receivers discussed previously, Aiyuk will need a career performance to even get a sniff of the MVP. He made a couple clutch receptions against Green Bay but was only targeted six times for the game. That will not get it done on a team that features McCaffrey?
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff (+850)
The people’s choice, Goff is the player so many Americans want to see lead the Lions to their first Super Bowl title. The oddsmakers, though, doubt Detroit reaches the Super Bowl and also are not convinced Goff will be the best player on the field even if Motown claims the Lombardi Trophy.
Read More: Lions Believe and Expect to Win
Amon-Ra St. Brown (+8000)
Detroit’s Energizer Bunny, the Lions’ wideout sees enough targets and he runs every route in the playbook. A career-defining day is possible. It is unlikely, but there is precedent. Cooper Kupp outshined Matthew Stafford in 2022 dominating the field from the wideout position. It was a low-scoring game, and he was featured almost exclusively on the game-winning drive. If Amon-Ra St. Brown can match his numbers – 92 yards and two touchdowns (23-20 win) – and the Lions win, it is possible. Not likely, but possible.
Jahmyr Gibbs (+10000)
The rookie running back averaged eight yards per carry and 10 yards per reception in the Divisional Round against Tampa Bay. He also scored once. If Goff is not stellar which is quite possible, and Gibbs gets far more than the 13 touches he got against the Bucs, he could well earn MVP honors. Certainly, a smarter play than Amon-Ra St. Brown.
If you are thinking of taking a defensive player from any of these teams as MVP, think twice and know it would take numerous interceptions or utter dominance along the defensive line (e.g. multiple sacks, forced fumbles, etc…) for a defensive player to win MVP.
The value for all candidates will shrink following the AFC and NFC Championship games this weekend, so take a moment and consider the Super Bowl MVP market before it gets late and the odds get adjusted.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
